Ibrahim al-Ja'fari: Iraq's Designated Prime Minister - A Biographical Note

Introduction

For the first time in the history of Iraq, a list of candidates for national elections made up almost entirely of Shi'ite candidates has won 48.1 percent of the vote and an absolute majority of seats - 140 of the 275 seats. The list, called the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), comprised the two major Shi'ite parties in Iraq, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the al-Da'wa Party, headed by Abd al-'Aziz al-Hakim and Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, respectively. The list further includes the Iraqi Congress Party, headed by Dr. Ahmad Chalabi,and a slew of independent candidates. Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, the head of SCIRI, a cleric who was not considered as a viable candidate for the post of prime minister, was first on the list; al-Ja'fari was second.

Within a few days of the announcement of the results on February 6, a number of newly-elected members of the National Assembly had declared themselves candidates for the post of prime minister. After internal consultation, the United Iraqi Alliance selected Dr. Ibrahim al-Ja'fari as its candidate for the top executive post, and was subsequently endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Barring last minute surprises, the endorsement of al-Ja'fari by the UIA, and by al-Sistani, will almost certainly guarantee his approval by the simple majority required in the National Assembly to become the first elected prime minister in Iraq in more than 50 years.

Personal Details

Ibrahim abd al-Karim Hamza al-Ja'fari was born Ibrahim al-Ushaiqir in the city of Karbala in 1947. He is a sayyid, meaning he is descended from Prophet Muhammad. The Al-Ushaiqir family originated from the city of al-Ushaiqir, in what is now Saudi Arabia. Al-Ja'fari's great great grandfather, Sayyid Mahdi bin Sayyid Ali bin Sayyid Baqir al-Ushaiqir, led the al-Ushaiqir revolt in Karbala in 1876 against the Ottoman Empire. [1] Young Ibrahim attended both primary and secondary schools in that city which, in 1968, witnessed the first wave of what was termed "Shi'a politicization" and the rise of the influence of the Islamic Da'wa Party (hizb al-Da'wa al-Islamiyya) under the leadership of Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr.

Al-Ushaiqir joined the Da'wa party in 1968 but continued his education at Mosul University, earning a medical degree in 1974. He was to say later that his studies in Mosul had sensitized him to the views and concerns of the Sunnis. [2] Upon completing his education, he returned to Karbala to immerse himself in political activity. When conflict between the Da'wa Party and the Ba'th authorities intensified in the late 1970s, Saddam Hussein engaged in physical liquidations on a large scale. In 1980, al-Ushaiqar fled to Iran. To protect his family from retribution by the regime, Ibrahim al-Ushaiqir adopted the name al-Ja'fari, (he was sometimes known as Abu Ahmad al-Ja'fari). Unable to engage in political activities independent of the Iranian "party line," al-Ja'fari moved to England in 1989, where he served as a spokesman for his party and where his family, comprising his wife, his two sons, and three daughters, continues to reside. [3] Unlike Chalabi and his Iraqi National Congress, al-Ja'fari was opposed to outside invasion to remove Saddam from power. [4]

Focus on Shi'a Identity

Free for the first time from the politically oppressive environments in Iraq and Iran, al-Ushaiqir/al-Ja'fari was able to refocus attention on the "Iraqi Shi'a identity," to interact with other Iraqi parties in exile and to offer innovative ideas about a democratic future for Iraq. In fact, the Islamic Da'wa Party was able to establish what was termed as "flexible alliances" with other leaders in exile. Al-Ja'fari was instrumental in his party's decision to take part in the 1991 meetings in Beirut of the national action committee, the precursor of the Iraqi National Congress. [5] His activities, inclined toward political pragmatism, were opposed by another wing of the Da'wa Party led by Abu Bilal al-Adib, who supported the Iranian agenda and continues to reside in Iran and to be financially supported by the Iranian government. [6]

The Return to Iraq

Al-Ja'fari returned to Iraq immediately upon the fall of the Saddam regime. He had opposed the invasion; however, he now joined other political forces declaring that the occupation was a reality and it was necessary to join forces with others to shorten its duration. [7] In July 2003 he became a member of Iraq's Governing Council and its first president - a position rotated among members in alphabetical order. Since June 1, 2004, he has served as one of the two interim vice presidents of Iraq.

The Islamic Da'wa Party

The Islamic Da'wa Party was established in 1958 and is considered the oldest Islamist movement in Iraq. It is based "on the ideology of reforming Islamic thought and modernizing religious institutions." [8] In 1980, the party leader, Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, was assassinated by agents of Saddam Hussein, and the party was banned because of its association with Iran. [9] Al-Da'wa members either joined the Iranian military units during the war with Iraq or refrained from political activity altogether. In July 1982, members of the party staged an assassination attempt on Saddam Hussein, and the following month they bombed the Ministry of Planning. Following an attack on Saddam's motorcade in April 1987, thousands of al-Da'wa's members were executed and many others fled Iraq. [10]

Al-Da'wa Party's Position on Islamist Government

The al-Da'wa party advocates some form of Islamic government. For example, an editorial in the party's organ, al-Da'wa, laments a decision by the then-ruling Iraqi Governing Council to exclude Islamic education from school curriculum and to replace it with "religious ethics and values." "We are awaiting the days," editorialized the paper, "when our people will be the source of [our] strength, and our divine faith the basis of [our] laws…" [11]

Statements like this have raised alarms both in the United States and among the Iraqi Sunnis and secular politicians about al-Ja'fari's alleged Islamist views. Questions have also been raised by outgoing interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, about al-Ja'fari's commitment to a pluralistic society and his relations with the Iranian regime. Speaking for Allawi, his assistant, 'Imad Shabib, called on al-Ja'fari "to conduct himself as an Iraqi and be loyal to Iraq and not to another country," obviously referring to Iran. He added, "Dr. Al-Ja'fari is our friend but we must tell both the Da'wa Party, which is the party of al-Ja'fari, and SCIRI: Beware." [12] An examination of al-Ja'fari's record could dispel at least some of these worries.

Al-Ja'fari's Views on Key Issues

In a wide-ranging interview with Associated Press followed by another one with the London daily al-Sharq al-Awsat, al-Ja'fari has tried to dispel the concerns about his Islamist views.

One of the most profound issues that will have to be addressed in the new constitution is whether, as advocated by al-Da'wa Party, Islam should be the only source of legislation or whether it should be one of the sources of legislation as has been established by the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL)which serves as Iraq's interim constitution. When questioned about this issue in the interview, al-Ja'fari's reply was somewhat circuitous but nevertheless reassuring: "Iraqis agree on common ideas, such as respecting peoples' various beliefs, maintaining civil liberties, endorsing elections as the way to select authorities, preserving the state sovereignty, respecting human rights, and respecting women and integrating them into political life.

"The great majority of Iraqis are Muslim; hence, it is natural that we should care about their sensibilities by making Islam the official religion of the state and making it one of the main sources for legislation [italics added] along with other sources, without harming the Muslims' sensibilities."

In his subsequent interview with al-Sharq al-Awsat, al-Ja'fari was far more assertive on the subject: "I believe that it is incumbent on whoever leads Iraq to have been born in the womb of this country, and his particularities should be compatible with those of this country. Iraq is diverse and does not resemble any other country. Not all Iraqis are Shi'ite and not all Shi'ite are Islamists and not all Islamists believe in the rule of jurist [wilayat al-faqih, which characterizes the regime in Iran]… Iraq is diverse and it is incumbent on everyone to respect this diversity, respect the freedoms, beliefs, and the political, religious, and ethnic affiliations of all the Iraqis." [13]

Keeping in mind that Ayatollah al-Sistani was born in Iran, the notion that the Iraqi leader should be born in the "womb of this country" is quite significant.

When asked further whether his reply may have contradicted his party's call for the Islamization of the society and the state, al-Ja'fari made a revealing distinction: "We believe that the theory is not the goal, but the goal is the human being [who] will be flexible in developing the theory." [14] In his interview with al-Sharq al-Awsat, al-Ja'fari added: "I am not surprised if a person undergoes changes but I am surprised if he does not change his point of view. The political activity is the art of the possible in the management of change." [15]

The Position of SCIRI

The position of al-Ja'fari on the diversity of Iraq was echoed by statements made by the other major partner in the United Iraqi Alliance, namely the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. A spokesman for SCIRI asserted that it is "impossible that the next Iraqi government will be religious and Islamist. It will be a national, democratic, free, and coalition government" that will afford an opportunity to all "the confessions, nationalities, and religions in Iraq to partake in it… We will not form a government subordinate to this or that country. We do not need Iran or Syria - they need us." [16]

Not less significant is the "advice" given by Ayatollah al-Sistani to a delegation of UIA leaders who visited him in Najaf. While he endorsed the selection of al-Ja'fari as prime minister, he called on UIA to defend the rights of the Sunnis because of the circumstances they have gone through. [17]

No Withdrawal of Multinational Forces until Security is Restored

Al-Ja'fari has stated, openly and often, that until security is restored to Iraq it would be premature to ask for the withdrawal of the multinational forces. This position is shared by SCIRI, by the Kurds, and by the outgoing Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, but rejected by most of the Sunnis and the radical Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. [18] The Sunnis and al-Sadr have persisted in their demands, before and since the elections, that the establishment of a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq is a pre-condition for their engagement in the political process.

In his interview with AP, al-Ja'fari seems to broaden the justification for placing foreign troops in countries which are unable to take care of their own security:

"We have to look into the reasons why the multinational troops remain in Iraq, and not only in Iraq, but in many regions around the world: the troops are present in a certain country when the breaches in the security situation are greater than the capacity of the security apparatus in that country to handle it.

"It is true that the presence of multinational forces in Iraq is a weakness and not a point of strength, as it means that security is not up to the level needed in the country. However, treating such a weakness shouldn't lead us to committing a bigger mistake by calling for the troops' withdrawal at this time. There are security challenges; there are breaches, assassinations, and explosions." [19]

Iraqi Federalism

Al-Ja'fari's answer to the question about federalism will undoubtedly leave many Kurds bewildered. He seems to believe the calls for federalism derive from a desire to escape successive governments' "suppression of the sons of the provinces." If the central government creates justice for all, al-Ja'fari has argued, "many of the fears will evaporate." In other words, the calls for federalism will cease. The Kurdish parties will undoubtedly have difficulty supporting a prime minister who holds this kind of view about federalism. The Kurds have made strong statements that they will only support a candidate for the prime minister post who supports their principles. [20]

Challenges Ahead

Dr. al-Ja'fari, and for that matter any prime minister who will be selected by the National Assembly, faces enormous challenges. If not approached wisely and cautiously, each of these hurdles could greatly undermine the fragile democratic system being constructed in Iraq. It is incumbent upon him to:

· Work closely with the multinational forces to control the insurgency as a first step toward restoring security and initiating a drive for the reconstruction of the country.

· Initiate a process of national reconciliation that will bring the Sunnis back into the political process as critical partners which could greatly weaken the support they provide to the insurgents.

· Work closely with the Kurds to satisfy their demand for a federal system of government that would preserve their autonomy.

· Keep the clerics in his own backyard from pressing too hard for the Islamization of the state and society.

· Address the critical needs of the population, e.g., power and water supply, that affect the quality of life.

· As the national leader, keep the National Assembly focused on the drafting of a constitution that embodies aspirations of all segments of the Iraqi population.

· Stand firm against Iranian meddling in Iraqi affairs.

Conclusion

Dr. Ibrahim al-Ja'fari emerges from his statements as a religious moderate and a pragmatic politician. Given that he will preside over a transitional government until the next elections due for December of this year, there is no reason for alarm that he would seek to transform Iraq into an Islamist nation while the country is engaged in the drafting of a new constitution. There could be some changes on the margin, but the fundamental principles upon which the Iraqi social and political mosaic resides will probably remain unchanged.

* Nimrod Raphaeli is Senior Analyst of MEMRI's Middle East Economic Studies Program.