The following report is now a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here.
In a July 27, 2024 article, Ibrahim Al-Amin, chairman of the board of the pro-Hizbullah Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, claimed that Israel's intelligence prowess failed to assess Hizbullah's air force capabilities. Similarly, it suffered its "biggest upset" on October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked, followed by several continuing setbacks in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. Al-Amin claimed that Hizbullah's drone capabilities are the group's own long-standing "investment," and not a copy of the Iran-provided drones to its proxies in the region.
The Drone Technology Available To Hizbullah Is The Result Of The Group's Own "Investment," And Not Copy Of Iran-Provided Drones Elsewhere
Titled "The Kings of the Sky," Al-Amin's report argued Israel's military calculations regarding the Lebanese front yielded a surprising outcome: Hizbullah's "flying objects" surpassed all Israeli estimations. He contended that Israel's assessment that Hizbullah uses copies of the same drones developed by Iran has shocked Israeli intelligence services and proved that excellence in intelligence collection, analysis, and assessment is not "exclusive" to Israel's "lord of intelligence."
According to the author, Israel's surprise will be greater when it realizes that the technology available to Hizbullah is not of the same kind other groups acquired as part of Iran's display of power, writing: "Such technology is fully available to the party [Hizbullah], in whole as well as in its smallest details, and there is a large investment in it, to the point that it pushes the enemy to deal with the party at a level of equality."
The "Hoopoe" Reconnaissance Operation Demonstrated The Scale Of Hizbullah's Capabilities
To further strengthen his point, the author argued that very few in Lebanon or Israel are aware of Israel's unprecedented intelligence, military, and security efforts over the past 20 years to counter Hizbullah's "accumulation" of capabilities, while preventing the group from acquiring the necessary capabilities, and from reaching the stage of activating these capabilities.
He stated that the "bitter reality" is that Hizbullah and its capabilities were completely removed, not only from Israel's estimates, but from all intelligence analyses and interpretations.
"The Israeli intelligence was significantly shocked, so that it denied facts, and searched for alternative interpretations," he claimed, declaring that Hizbullah's "hoopoe" reconnaissance operation over Haifa demonstrated the scale of Hizbullah's capabilities and "awakened" Israeli public opinion.
"This is not just a margin of error that can be contained, but rather unknown capabilities that cannot be realized, until they are put in use. Among these capabilities are those for which there is no immediate remedy," he declared.
"Kings Of The Sky, Too"
Highlighting Hizbullah's alleged effort to promote its capabilities in air force technology, Al-Amin praised the group's attempt to empower its air force minds, cadres, and leaders to become the "kings of the sky, too." Al-Amin noted that Hizbullah's recent operation represented only a "small sample of what it can do if it is forced into a broader confrontation." The group remains bound by "great restraints" and is "prohibited from using more than such small part of its energy, ideas, plans, and capabilities."
Hizbullah Is Capable Of Disabling Air Defense Systems, Opening Way For "Precise And Heavy Missiles" To Reach All Cities Of Israel
"The Israeli public does not realize the existence of political and moral factors behind the firing of Hizbullah drones," Al-Amin wrote, noting that Hizbullah's drones, which "have not targeted civilian targets" in the past, will do so in the event of a comprehensive war - "especially in the face of the brutality that characterizes the enemy's behavior."
The author emphasized that the inability to find a solution to Hizbullah's operations remains a "highly sensitive" issue for Israel. He claimed that Hizbullah has destroyed a very large number of detection systems, and is capable of disabling air defense systems at any moment, which, he argued, "would open the way for all types of precise and heavy missiles" to reach entire neighborhoods in Tel Aviv as well as all other Israeli cities.
Israel Is Expected To Be Prepared For An "Unprecedented Action" In Its History
Elaborating on the possible military scenarios in the event of a broader conflict, Al-Amin argued that Israel needs to be prepared for a "special moment," where drones "would occupy the airspace over the triangle of death," which connects the Kiryat Shmona bases in the northeast with the Palmachim Airbase in central west, and the site of the Ilan and Asaf Ramon International Airports in the south, where Israel's air force power is concentrated.
The full text of this post is available to subscribers.
Please login or register to request subscription information from MEMRI
