Lebanese Journalist Close To Hizbullah: In Scenario Of All-Out War, Hizbullah Will Cause Greater Anarchy On Israeli Home Front Than What Occurred On October 7

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In a July 10, 2024 article, Ibrahim Al-Amin, chairman of the board of the pro-Hizbullah Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, posited that Israel has lost "the element of surprise" and along with it the ability to disable Hizbullah's "high-quality capabilities" at the start of a round of fighting. He claimed that Israel's air defense systems cannot muster an effective response to Hizbullah's firepower, so that in the event of all-out war, Hizbullah is likely to perpetrate a comprehensive attack on the Israeli home front. He maintains that in such a scenario, Hizbullah would destroy strategic civilian and military infrastructure and displace about a million and a half Israelis.[1]

Illustrative photograph from the article that appeared in the Al-Akhbar daily (Source: Al-akhbar.com, July 10, 2024)

Al-Amin claimed that following the recent escalation in the confrontations between Israel and Hizbullah, the latter has increased its preparedness for all-out war, while at the same time raised the level of the threats that it is sending to the Israeli public and the heads of its security systems. Its aim is to convey that in the event of all-out war, Hizbullah has "a plan that is different from any appraisal [Israel may have]."

To demonstrate his point, Al-Amin proposed a "thought experiment" to envision the scenario of all-out war, based on the Hizbullah attempts at deterrence embodied in three short videos it released recently that reveal some of its potential targets in Israel, titled Hudhud 1,[2] Hudhud 2,[3] and To Whom It May Concern.[4] Al-Amin stated that in these videos alone, Hizbullah presents more than a hundred "vital targets," including intelligence and military bases, weapons storage facilities, aerial defense systems, and others, in addition to more than 50 "central infrastructure targets" in Israel, such as seaports, airports, power stations, refineries, petrochemical industry facilities, and more.

Asserting that Hizbullah deliberately avoids showing "the most sensitive details related to advanced industries" from which Israel earns billions of dollars annually, he stated that these industries are also likely to be targeted in a scenario of all-out war. He said that this would disrupt huge projects that Israel is involved in, in collaboration with international bodies in the East and in the West. The preceding is in addition to the information that has been released to date about the weapons held by Hizbullah and those that are in the hands of the other resistance factions in the region and of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and which Hizbullah may also have obtained.

The above poster depicts part of Hizbullah's bank of targets in Israel, as well as the advanced weapons systems the group claims to possess. (Source: Al-akhbar.com, July 10, 2024)

If one takes the above information into account in the framework of his proposed "thought experiment," Al-Amin asserted that one must arrive at the following conclusions:

First – Israel has lost the "element of surprise," so that even should it launch an unexpected attack on Hizbullah, it will not be able to incapacitate or disable the organization's "high-quality capabilities."

Second – the enemy's aerial defense systems (the Iron Dome, David's Sling, the Arrow and Patriot systems and various aircraft) would only be able to respond with a 50 percent success rate to an extensive first attack. Al-Amin claims that the simultaneous launch of tens of thousands of weapons (i.e. drones, rockets, missiles, and various types of artillery) would be sufficient to destroy or incapacitate all the targets in Israel referred to above.

He said that this should be considered along with "the serious possibility" that Hizbullah will embark on a large ground operation "deep in the occupied north" of Israel. According to Al-Amin, such steps will bring about "the immense destruction of strategic civilian and military infrastructure" in Israel, the displacement of a million and a half Israelis, and even greater anarchy than that which ensued in the communities facing the Gaza Strip after the October 7 attack. He adds that Hizbullah will not limit itself to the "northern third" of Israel, but will also operate in the part of the country where its "nerve center" is located.

Notable in this context is a speech delivered by Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on July 10 in Beirut, at a memorial ceremony for senior Hizbullah operative Muhammad Neameh Nasser (aka Hajj Abu Neameh) who was killed on July 3 in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Nasrallah asserted that Hizbullah would not tolerate any Israeli attack on Lebanon, that it has no fear regarding all-out war, and that it is prepared for the worst-case scenario.[5]