Introduction
China is a threat to the West, and particularly to the U.S., on all levels – military, economic, cyber, and scientific, as well as, with relation to COVID-19, in terms of public health. China as an emerging threat has become a matter of bipartisan consensus.
China's continuing threats to invade Taiwan also represent an attack on the West. Today, Taiwan, a small island of great strategic value, is called on to be the frontline in the fight against the totalitarian Chinese Communist regime. Taiwan's fate is inextricably linked with that of the U.S. Should Taiwan be taken by the CCP, the U.S. would lose its most effective means to balance the Communist regime. Consequently, the U.S.'s dominant position in the Indo-Pacific region would collapse. From then on, the CCP would face off against the U.S. and its allies in the region. Thus, the CCP would end up with absolute control of the South China Sea, a resource-rich region and the lifeblood of the world's maritime transport – and its external expansion and projection of influence would grow rapidly by leaps and bounds.
Following the inaugural speech of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in which Taiwan's sovereignty was asserted, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched in the morning of May 23, 2024, a massive two-day military exercise code-named Joint Sword-2024A, surrounding the island of Taiwan (to the north, south and east of Taiwan, as well as areas around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are located in the Taiwan Strait), simulating an attack on the island with naval warships, fighter jets, bombers, helicopters, and rocket launch systems.
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) mouthpiece Global Times wrote that the recent Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the China Coast Guard (CCG) drills around Taiwan are a "new normal" of "anti-salami-slicing" against "provocations" by the "Taiwan independence secessionist forces."
On May 24, Chinese defense spokesperson, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, stated: "The military drills around Taiwan aim to crack down on the arrogance of 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces and deter the interference and intervention of external forces, which are completely reasonable, lawful, legitimate, and necessary... Taiwan is China's Taiwan, and how to resolve the Taiwan question is a matter for over 1.4 billion Chinese people... With each provocation of the 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces, our countermeasures will advance one step further until the complete reunification of the motherland is realized."
On May 25, 2024, CCTV Video News Agency (China) aired a report featuring 3D animations of the PLA's "Joint Sword 2024A" military exercise around Taiwan. In the report, Chinese National Defense University expert Zhang Chi provided explanations over animations of missiles striking Taiwan, stating that China has the ability to launch a "joint strike on the political center of 'Taiwan independence,'" including ports and airports, with the goal of achieving air, maritime, and information superiority in Taiwan.
It is worth noting that, compared to the 2022 previous drills, after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, the Joint Sword-2024A covered wider regions, and the drill's encirclement on the main island of Taiwan became tighter, with the goal of normalizing the PLA's presence in the area in case of an actual invasion of the island.
Below is a collection of MEMRI reports and analyses about China's prospects of a hegemonic war over Taiwan:
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China's Joint Sword 2024A Drills
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August 2022 Drills And Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Visit
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The One China Principle
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China Warns The U.S. And The West Not To Interfere In Taiwan's Affairs
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China Warns Taiwan Not To Rely On The U.S.
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Reunification With Taiwan And The Use Of Force
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Scenarios For A War On Taiwan
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Russia's Support For China, And How The War In Ukraine Influences China's Plan To Invade Taiwan
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Analyses: China's Plans To Invade Taiwan
MEMRI Chinese Media Studies Project - Contributions To This Booklet
Heino Klinck, member of MEMRI's Board of Advisors. He served as the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, 2019-2021. As a U.S. Army foreign area officer, he served as a military attaché in China, 2004-2010
Andrew J. Masigan, MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star.
Chris King, Senior Research Fellow for the MEMRI Chinese Media Studies Project. King was an active participant in the student protests in China in 1989.
Anna Mahjar-Barducci, Senior Research Fellow.
Alex Smith, Senior Research Fellow.
The following reports and analyses are organized by topic, not by date.
China's Joint Sword 2024A Drills
Following the inaugural speech of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in which Taiwan's sovereignty was asserted, Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched in the morning of May 23, 2024, a two-day massive military exercise code-named Joint Sword-2024A, surrounding the island of Taiwan (to the north, south and east of Taiwan, as well as areas around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are located in the Taiwan Strait), simulating an attack on the island with naval warships, fighter jets bombers, helicopters, and rocket launch systems.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office Spokeswoman: People's Liberation Army Drills Around Taiwan To Continue Until Provocations Stop, May 29, 2024.
In gray, the 2022 drills and in red the Joint Sword 2024 A drills. the drill's encirclement on the main island of Taiwan became tighter, with the goal of normalizing the PLA's presence in the area in case of an actual invasion of the island. (Source: Global Times)
2022 drills compared to 1995-1996 PLA exercises (Source: CGTN)
PLA Eastern Theater Command's Joint Sword-2024A posters, mentioning "cross-strait lethality." The posters show: J-20 stealth fighter, J-16 fighter, Type 052D destroyer, Type 071 amphibious warfare ship, short-range ballistic missile, PHL-16 rocket artillery systems. (Source: Mgronline.com)
PLA's six key words: 進 (advance), 圍 (surround/besiege), 鎖 (lock down), 擊 (attack), 毀 (destroy), 斷 (cut off). The PLA tries to cut off access to Taiwan both by sea and air. The map shows that the PLA tried to squeeze the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are located in the Taiwan Strait (closer to China) and put pressure on military centers on the eastern side of the island, like the Hualien air base. (Source: X)
Chinese PLA Navy warships have been deployed off the coast of Eastern Taiwan, only 16 nautical miles away from Hualien, where is located Taiwan's key air base. (Source: X)
The map shows PLA vessels moving toward Taiwan from all sides, as part of the Joint Sword-2024A drill. (Source: PLA Eastern Theater Command)
August 2022 Drills And Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Visit
On August 2, 2022, United States politician Nancy Pelosi, while serving as the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan. As a result of the visit, Beijing threatened a crisis across the Taiwan Strait. Xi Jinping and the CCP authorities base their legitimacy on the so-called "Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," and one of the most important points is the reunification of the "motherland" with Taiwan. Xi Jinping and the Chinese authorities felt that, failing to respond to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan with sufficient weight, it would have been a major blow to Xi's power and prestige, and thus to the CCP's ruling position. Hence, after her visit, the CCP kicked off its biggest-ever military drills around Taiwan.
China Daily: 'By Flagrantly Playing With Fire On The Taiwan Question, Some U.S. Politicians Are Making Themselves Enemies Of The 1.4 Billion Chinese People', August 15, 2022.
Chinese Media Outlet: 'Understanding The Ten Breakthroughs' Of Beijing's Joint Military Operations Around Taiwan, August 15, 2022.
Beijing's White Paper: 'The Taiwan Question And China's Reunification In The New Era', August 12, 2022.
Russian Commentators Convinced That Pelosi's Provocative Taiwan Visit Will Play Into Russia's Hands, August 4, 2022.
Chinese FM Spokeswoman Hua Chunying On Pelosi's Taiwan Visit: The U.S. Is Approaching Our Red Line, Any Chinese Countermeasures Would Be Legitimate, August 2, 2022.
Chinese Military Video Published Ahead Of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Asia Trip Showcases Infantry, Naval, Aerial, Missile Capabilities, August 1, 2022.
United States politician Nancy Pelosi, while serving as the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, and former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, on August 2, 2022. (Source: Office of the President)
The One China Principle
"The One-China Principle is the foundation stone for the Chinese government's policy on Taiwan," stressed the Chinese government. Explaining the One-China principle, Chinese news agency Xinhua wrote: "The real status quo of the Taiwan Strait is this: there is only one China in the world; Taiwan is a part of China; and the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. The two sides across the Taiwan Strait belong to the one and same China. The sovereignty and territory of China have never been divided."
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas During China-Arab Summit: We Support Beijing's One-China Policy, Demand Apology And Reparations From The U.S., Britain, And Israel, December 10, 2022.
Chinese State Council Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesman Ma Xiaoguang: Taiwanese Independence Is A Fallacy, A Separatist Plot, June 29, 2022.
Chinese News Agency Xinhua Lists 'Eleven Facts' Reaffirming The 'One-China Principle' Over Taiwan, September 1, 2022.
Viral Chinese Music Video Titled "Traveling To Taiwan In 2035" Predicts Reunification With Taiwan, November 3, 2021.
China's Political Advisor Wang Yang: 'Both Sides Of The Taiwan Strait Belong To The Same Country And Taiwan Is Part Of China', August 2, 2022.
(Source: MEMRI TV Clip No. 9187, Viral Chinese Music Video Titled "Traveling To Taiwan In 2035" Predicts Reunification With Taiwan: "Get On That Train To Taiwan", November 4, 2021.)
China Warns The U.S. And The West Not To Interfere In Taiwan's Affairs
Chinese authorities declared that the Joint Sword-2024A military drills around Taiwan aimed "to crack down on the arrogance of 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces" and "deter the interference and intervention of external forces [i.e., the United States] Chinese media outlet Huaxia accused the U.S. of stirring up trouble for China by playing the "Taiwan card." Huaxia stated that the U.S. is playing the role of rescuer in a conflict of its own making, as the "continuous intensification of cross-strait political and military confrontation" fuels Taiwan's belief that it needs a protector.
CCP Journalist Hu Xijin: China's PLA Can Overwhelm Taiwan, Would Not Be Deterred By American Or Japanese Forces, February 5, 2024.
Chinese Propaganda Outlet Global Times: Top U.S. Military Official Revealed That U.S. Troops Failed Miserably In Simulated "War for Taiwan", July 29, 2021.
Chinese Media Outlet Huaxia: 'Is The U.S. Supporting Or Harming Taiwan?', April 26, 2021.
Fearing Support For Taiwan's Independence, CCP Media Attempts To Ridicule Former U.S. Secretary Of State Pompeo's Wish To Visit Taiwan, March 22, 2021.
Influential Chinese Professor Jin Canrong: If China Takes Over Taiwan, We'll Replace The U.S. As The World's 'Big Boss', October 26, 2021.
CCP Journalist Hu Xijin: If The U.S. Changes The Name Of Its Representative Office In Taiwan, China Will Recall Its Ambassador, Take Economic, Military Action, September 13, 2021.
CCP Journalist Hu Xijin: U.S. Military Intervention in Taiwan Would Be Suicide for American Troops, July 20, 2022.
Chinese Academic Teng Jianqun: 'We Must Remain Highly Vigilant Against... Collusion Between The United States And Taiwan', July 5, 2022.
Chinese Defense Minister: If Anyone Dares To Split Taiwan From China, We Will Fight To The End, No Matter The Cost, June 12, 2022.
Two fighter jets attached to an aviation brigade of the air force under the PLA Eastern Theater Command take off for the designated airspace during a flight training exercise on May 14, 2022. (Source: Eng.chinamil.com.cn; Photo by Xing Zhitao)
(Source: Global Times)
China Warns Taiwan Not To Rely On The U.S.
CCP mouthpiece Global Times warned repeatedly that "Taiwan independence" means war, and that the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) authorities in Taiwan should not rely on the U.S. to mount any "separatist attempt" to "resist reunification" with the mainland China.
CCP Media Outlet 'Global Times': U.S. Abandonment Of Afghanistan Is A Lesson For Taiwan, August 23, 2021.
Chinese Media Figure Wang Zaixi on Taiwan-China Tensions: If a War Breaks Out, Taiwan Stands No Chance; America Cannot Be Counted On, December 11, 2021.
(Source: Global Times)
Reunification With Taiwan And The Use Of Force
Senior Chinese personalities, from Xi Jinping down through Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders and People's Liberation Army (PLA) commanders, have been reiterating for years that Taiwan must be reunited with mainland China, and that this will happen whether by peaceful means or by way of military action.
Chinese National Defense Ministry Spokesman: Supporters Of 'Taiwan Independence' Separatist Forces 'Will Get Burned For Playing With Fire', March 18, 2024.
Chinese Media Outlet 81.cn: 'Taiwan Independence And Peace In The Taiwan Strait Are Incompatible'; 'China Will Realize Reunification, And This Is Unstoppable', January 24, 2024.
Chinese International Affairs Expert: PLA Jets Patrolling Over Taiwan Were In 'Quasi-State Of War,' Were Familiarizing Themselves With The 'Battlefield', January 29, 2022.
Spokesman Of China's Taiwan Affairs Office Ma Xiaoguang: We Will Crush Any DPP Efforts To Attain Taiwanese Independence, July 15, 2022.
Chinese Ministry Of National Defense Spokesman: Taiwan Is Part Of China — There Is No Median Line In The Taiwan Strait, May 26, 2022.
Chinese Pundits Say Reunification With Taiwan Has Already Started, Threaten Japan, American Anti-Chinese Lawmakers, December 2, 2021.
Chinese Military Expert Wang Yunfei: China Can Take Over Taiwan 'As Early As Tomorrow', December 9, 2021.
Scenarios For A War On Taiwan
In the early 21st century, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched a large-scale naval expansion plan aimed at increasing its maritime power. This was in the context of its long-term strategic goals of conquering Taiwan, of countering the security challenges posed by the United States and its allies, and of expanding its global interests.
Chinese PLA Music Video Titled 'Inspect The Strait' Shows Infantry, Naval, Air Exercises, Including Amphibious Landings, Parachuting, And Ground Assaults, August 17, 2023.
Chinese Professor Li Yi: China Can Sustain Losing Up To Half Its Population For The Sake Of Unification With Taiwan, May 24, 2023.
Su Chi, Chairman Of Taiwan-Based Think Tank: China Will Reunite With Taiwan Within Five Years, We Cannot Rely On The United States, October 13, 2022.
Footage Captured By Chinese Drone Flying Over Taiwanese Military Outpost, August 29, 2022.
China's Eastern Theater Command Publishes Video About Exercises In The Taiwan Strait Involving Stealth Fighters, Sea Assaults, Long-Range Missiles, August 11, 2022.
Screenshot from MEMRI TV Clip No. 10235 - Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer Wuxi Passes Three-Day Combat Assessment Exercise Involving Air Defense, Anti-Submarine, And Electronic Warfare Operations, March 27, 2023.
Russia's Support To China, And How The War In Ukraine Influences China's Plan To Invade Taiwan
Commenting on Russia-China relations, the Foreign Ministry of China wrote: "Having lasted three quarters of a century, China-Russia relations have grown from strength to strength despite the ups and downs, and have stood the test of changing international landscape… The China-Russia relationship today is hard-earned, and the two sides need to cherish and nurture it." Russian media outlet Izvestia further stated that the alliance between Russia and China is getting stronger "amid the collapse of the foundation of the world order," which was imposed by the "golden billion" since the end of the Cold War. The media outlet added that "the alliance" between Russia and China is "the very embodiment of stability and common sense," and its goal is to "turn the notorious unipolarity into a vestige of history."
Russian Reactions To Chinese Military Drills Around Taiwan, June 3, 2024.
Russian Outlet On Possible Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan: 'War Seems To Be Inevitable... Will Taiwan Repeat The Fate Of Ukraine?', February 2, 2024.
Renowned Chinese Academic Tang Yonghong: 'Today's Ukraine, Tomorrow's Taiwan' Will Surely Become A Reality!, April 11, 2022.
Russian Military Expert Felgengauer Punctures The Hope That Tension Between China And Taiwan Could Open Up A Second Front To Distract The US, August 9, 2022.
Taiwan (Source: Tsargrad.tv)
On May 16-17, 2024, President of Russia Vladimir Putin was on a state visit to China during which Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks, made press statements, following consultations, signed a package of documents. ( Source: Chinadaily.com.cn)
Analyses: China's Plans To Invade Taiwan
By Heino Klinck:
Status Quo No More, by Heino Klinck, August 26, 2022.
The War In Ukraine And Implications For Deterring Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan, by Heino Klinck, June 3, 2022.
The Dangers Of Miscalculation In The Taiwan Strait – Three Sides To The Same Coin, by Heino Klinck, October 29, 2021.
By Yigal Carmon and M. Reiter:
Could A Chinese Attack To Reunite Taiwan With The Mainland Still Be A Surprise?, by Yigal Carmon and M. Reiter, December 30, 2021.
By Andrew Masigan:
Despite Being Economically Weak, China May Be Triggered To Attack Taiwan – Xi, Like Putin, Is Belligerent And Unpredictable, by Andrew J. Masigan, April 16, 2024.
By Chris King:
The Evolution Of Xi Jinping's Attitude Towards Taiwan – From Conciliatory To Irreversibly Hardline, by Chris King, August 27, 2021.
For Chinese President Xi Jinping, Conquering Taiwan Is A Matter Of Honor And 'Saving Face, by Chris King, November 29, 2021.
Beijing Intensifies Production Of Advanced Type 055 Guided-Missile Destroyers, With The Aim Of Deterring U.S., Preparing For Conquest Of Taiwan, by Chris King, April 27, 2023.
The Battle For Defending Taiwan May Determine The World's Future Direction, by Chris King, November 1, 2021.
By Anna Mahjar-Barducci:
Who Should Represent China? The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) People's Republic Of China (PRC) Or The Republic Of China (ROC) In Taiwan? By Anna Mahjar-Barducci, August 3, 2022.