A Dari-language article on the Afghan website BakhtarTribune.com argues that the Middle East is entering a critical phase, with Western powers aiming to curb Iran's destabilizing actions, while Iran faces existential threats, including internal economic crises, a weakened defense against Israel, and increasing isolation as Gulf countries and Europe shift away from engaging with Tehran.
The article, titled "Is The Version Of The End Of The Islamic Republic Complicated?" notes that Russia and China, once seen as key allies of Iran, appear to be distancing themselves from Tehran while growing international sanctions such as those targeting Iranian airlines, and increased Western support for Israel, are further isolating Iran.
Following are translated excerpts from the article:
"As Some Iranian Experts Say On Social Networks, The Islamic Republic Is Left Alone In The Field, And The Country's Policy Of Looking To The East, Which Defined Russia And China As Reliable Axes For Defense And Maintaining Deterrence, Has Failed"
"Is The Version Of The End Of The Islamic Republic Complicated?
"The developments in the Middle East have entered a serious and decisive period as it seems that the Western powers are determined to end or minimize what they call 'evil, destabilization, and tension creation,' which are used directly or as proxy forces by the ruling Islamic Republic of Iran. It seems that for the first time after about 46 years, the Islamic Republic has faced the question of 'was or was not' and has faced increasing, multi-layered, and multi-sided threats.
"So, on the one hand, the unsettled livelihood situation and the growing economic crisis threaten to reach the peak of the nation's dissatisfaction; and on the other hand, the defensive barrier of the Islamic Republic has been broken, and its attempt to prevent entering into a full-scale war and to prevent Israel's reactionary attack seems to have failed.
"Amidst the current tensions, Brussels is hosting the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries today [The first summit between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council, October 16, 2024]. This is a meeting that marks Europe's entry into interaction with the countries of this sphere, minuses the Islamic Republic of Iran, and means sounding the alarm for the Islamic Republic in the midst of increasing tension in the Middle East and the nullification of [Iranian Foreign Minister] Sayyid Abbas Araghchi's diplomatic efforts to persuade the countries of the Gulf to observe neutrality in the possible war with Israel.
"As some Iranian experts say on social networks, the Islamic Republic is left alone in the field, and the country's policy of looking to the East, which defined Russia and China as reliable axes for defense and maintaining deterrence, has failed, and especially Russia has left the Islamic Republic alone. Before the start of the new season of conflicts in the Middle East, some officials of the Islamic Republic were talking about a new world order with illusion, and probably with this illusion, Russia's aggression against Ukraine was supported in a declarative and practical way.
"The United States called the moderate Europe to be serious against the Islamic Republic, because it supports the aggression against Ukraine and Russia's use of drones and weapons made by Iran in the war in Ukraine, as a threat to the security of Europe and in the sense of passing through the Europeans' red line, along with the disruption of international trade by the Houthis. And all this made the case of the Islamic Republic thicker with the European governments."
"In This Short Period Of Time Since The Establishment Of The Pezeshkian Government, The Scope Of The Suffering Of The Iranian People Has Doubled, And After The Eight-Year War With Iraq Led By Saddam Hussein, Now Another Possible War Has Cast A Shadow On The Atmosphere Of Iran"
"Some Iranian experts write that Russia has traded and sold the Islamic Republic in exchange for trade-offs aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. Of course, there are also signs of a deal because in the past few days, news was published that Russian President Putin will probably participate in the upcoming G20 Summit in Brazil [on November 18-19, 2024], and the Russian foreign minister had a conversation with the Pope's representative. These are unprecedented developments after the isolation of Russia after the start of aggression against Ukraine.
"On the other hand, the strong support of the German government to Israel and the emphasis of the country's leadership to intensify the sending of weapons to that country, the trip of Joe Biden to Germany..., the possibility of Donald Trump winning the upcoming American elections, are all considered to be the beginning of the cold season for the Islamic Republic.
"It seems that the Islamic Republic has given up the field in both the political and military fronts of the conflict in this season and so far the efforts to save it have not been fruitful. The ban on Mahan, Iran Air, and Saha airlines by the European Union has closed the doors of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Europe, and from now on even the political officials of this country will not be allowed to travel to Europe by Iranian aircraft.
"With new sanctions, Iran's aviation industry has entered a new phase of crisis, along with the crisis of rustiness of aircraft and the impossibility of buying new aircraft. The continuation of the current situation, apart from the possible upcoming war, will increase the level of internal dissatisfaction in Iran because according to some experts, it is unlikely that the patience bowl of the Iranian nation will have more capacity to endure.
"The efforts of the new government of Iran, which entered the field with the slogan of creating change and softening international relations, have backfired, and in this short period of time since the establishment of the Pezeshkian government, the scope of the suffering of the Iranian people has doubled, and after the eight-year war with Iraq led by Saddam Hussein, now another possible war has cast a shadow on the atmosphere of Iran.
"The current developments raise these questions: Is the version of the end of the Islamic Republic complicated and approaching the zero hour? Is there a massive war with it? Does the West consider the end of the Islamic Republic as a more attainable goal among Russia, China and the Islamic Republic – the three opposing axes of the current international order? A month ahead, there seems to be an opportunity to answer the aforementioned questions."
Source: BakhtarTribune.com (Afghanistan), October 16, 2024.
