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January 30, 2025 Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1804

Egyptian Regime Forming Cautious Ties With New Syrian Leadership, Amid Fears That Syrian Revolution Will Inspire Muslim Brotherhood To Promote Similar Revolution In Egypt

January 30, 2025 | By B. Chernitsky*
Egypt, Syria | Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1804

The revolution in Syria and the takeover of the country by the Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) organization, which has jihadist roots,[1] poses a dilemma for the Egyptian regime, which over the years supported the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and must now decide how to treat the new Syrian leadership.[2] Egypt has made initial contact with this leadership, in the form of a phone call between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani, but it has not yet officially recognized the new Syrian government nor established a continuous diplomatic relationship with it.

Egypt's dilemma stems from the fear that, inspired by the events in Syria, elements affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), as well as Egyptian jihadists who fought in Syria, may act to overthrow the Egyptian regime of President Abd Al-Fattah Al-Sisi. This concern intensified after such elements known for their criticism of the Al-Sisi regime celebrated the Syrian revolution, with some calling for a similar revolution in Egypt. According to reports, Egypt has conditioned the establishment of relations with the new Syrian leadership on the latter ensuring that Egyptian "oppositionists" would not enter Syria and that those already in Syria would not be allowed to operate against Egypt from Syrian territory.[3]

Also contributing to the fear for the stability of the Egyptian regime is the severe economic situation in the country and the growing criticism recently expressed on social media regarding the perceived wastefulness of the regime. This criticism has focused primarily on the vast sums of money spent on the construction of the new administrative capital, and especially on the construction of a lavish palace for the president while many Egyptians continue to live in poverty.[4] In response to this criticism, many politicians and journalists in Egypt came to the regime's defense, accusing the MB of fueling the criticism and of attempting to spark another "Arab Spring" in Egypt.[5]

Egypt is also concerned about a potential decline in its regional status due to the rise in the status of Turkey and Qatar, the patrons of the HTS leadership in Syria, headed by Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Al-Joulani), and of the global MB. [6] Egypt recently renewed its relations with Turkey after a decade-long break due to Turkey's support for the MB government that arose in Egypt in 2012 and its opposition to the subsequent ouster of this government.[7] A few years ago Egypt also renewed its relations with Qatar, after, between mid-2017 and early 2021, it boycotted this country along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain due to its support for the MB and the Arab Spring, among other reasons.[8]

In light of these concerns, Egypt has taken several preventive measures: restricting the entry of Syrians into Egypt, presumably out of fear they might attempt to carry out attacks on its soil;[9] arresting Syrian expats in Egypt who expressed joy over the fall of the Assad regime,[10] and placing restrictions on religious radio and television programs.[11] Reports also indicate that the authorities raised the level of security alert in Cairo and other major cities ahead of the anniversary of the revolution against President Mubarak on January 25, an anniversary that tends to be charged in Egypt and was even more so this year.[12]

Egypt's dilemma regarding its relations with the new Syrian leadership found expression in the country's press as well. Initially, many articles warned about the jihadist character of this leadership and of its head, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, warning that the change in his appearance does not necessarily indicate a change in his outlook. Some of them even blamed the U.S. for whitewashing the "terrorism" of Al-Sharaa after CNN aired an interview with him on December 6.

Subsequent articles voiced concern that the events in Syria would indeed encourage the MB to seek to overthrow the Al-Sisi regime. They warned that the similarity between the MB and the new Syrian leadership, whose roots are jihadist, may turn Syria into a source of terror against Egypt.  

Conversely, other articles called to take a pragmatic approach to the new Syrian leadership and form ties with it in order to influence it, and warned that a complete lack of contact with it could be dangerous for Egypt.[13] Yet others called on the Egyptian authorities to show more openness to the civil opposition in Egypt and to address the high cost of living in order to allay the criticism against it and unite the people, thus depriving the MB of pretexts to incite rebellion. 

This report discusses Egypt's dilemma regarding the attitude to be taken towards the new Syrian leadership, as reflected in the Egyptian press.

Egypt's Tentative Policy Towards The New Syrian Regime

In light of its dilemma, Egypt's attitude towards Syria's new leadership has so far been hesitant. In the first days after the revolution, this hesitancy was evident in Egypt's official statements, which refrained from referring directly to the new leadership and focused on the need to safeguard Syria and its state institutions. The statements urged all players in Syria to safeguard "the country's assets and national institutions" and to undertake "a comprehensive political process leading to domestic accord and peace." This was apparently Egypt's way to express its desire for a Syrian regime integrating all the diverse elements of Syrian society and with limited Islamist influence.[14]

The first Egyptian political involvement in the Syrian issue was its participation in several meetings held in Aqaba, Jordan on December 14, 2024 on the situation in Syria.[15] Al-Sisi also discussed the developments in Syria with Turkish President Erdogan and with Iranian President Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the 11th Summit of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, which was held in Egypt on December 19, 2024.[16]

A first statement by President Al-Sisi regarding the events in Syria came about a week after the revolution, at a meeting with Egyptian journalists. Stressing that the two countries have "historical relations and they will continue," the Egyptian President noted that the Egyptian embassy in Syria was still functioning (despite the revolution), and expressed willingness to assist in the rebuilding of Syria. At the same time, he expressed a degree of reservation about the new regime, saying that "those who make decisions are the people of the country. They will either build it or destroy it."[17]

Only three weeks after the collapse of Assad's government did Egypt make direct contact with the new Syrian regime, in the aforementioned telephone conversation between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani. This is in contrast to the U.S., European countries and moderate Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, which hurried to dispatch delegations to Syria and meet with the leaders of its new government. According to Egyptian reports, even in this phone call Foreign Minister Abdelatty refrained from expressing support for the new Syrian regime and repeated the official Egyptian messages, that Egypt stands by the Syrian people and seeks to safeguard the country's unity and stability. Abdelatty also stressed the need to prevent outside interference so as to preserve Syria's Arab identity, perhaps in implicit criticism of Turkey's involvement there.[18] It should be noted that, in remarks to the Saudi Al-Arabiya news channel about the same conversation, Abdelatty referred to the new Syrian leadership as "the de facto government in Syria." Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Tamim Khallaf later explained that the minister had used the term "de facto" to describe the reality on the ground, whereby Syria's former regime had collapsed and other players were running the country without being elected. In other words, he was referring to an interim phase.[19]

Following the conversation between the two foreign ministers, the Egyptian Red Crescent sent a plane carrying food, equipment and medicines to its counterpart in Syria.[20] Furthermore, reports in the Arab press claimed that the Egyptian foreign minister was slated to visit Syria shortly, but this report was denied by Egypt.[21]

Egypt's Concerns Regarding The Repercussions Of The Situation In Syria Cause It To Impose Restrictions On Syrians' Entry Into Egypt

As stated, Egypt's tentative approach to Syria apparently derives from concerns regarding possible repercussions of the Syrian revolution on the stability of Al-Sisi's regime. In a meeting with Egyptian journalists a week after Assad's downfall, Al-Sisi stressed that the Egyptian state apparatuses are strong and able to cope with the terrorism in the region – a statement which was interpreted as an attempt to deter any Egyptians who might consider undermining their government, as occurred in Syria. Al-Sisi said: "The challenges [currently facing] Egypt include the forced expulsion [of Palestinians into the country], the danger of terrorism, the possibility that [terrorist] sleeper organizations and cells still remain in the country, and finally, the domestic challenge." He added: "Thanks to Allah and the unity of the Egyptians, Egypt will remain secure. It is [the fact that] the Egyptians stood [beside the state and its institutions] from 2011 to the present day that has protected this country, as well as the existence of a strong army, [state] institutions and a civil police."[22]

Another indication of Al-Sisi's concern for the stability of his rule is his attempt to rebuff the criticism levelled against him on social media regarding the move to the new administrative capital, the construction of the new presidential palace, and the cost of building them. Al-Sisi told the journalists, "I am an honest man who does not know the meaning of lying. I have not taken a penny from the state." At the conclusion of the meeting Al-Sisi reiterated these remarks, and said, possibly in an attempt to differentiate himself from Assad, "There are two things that I have never done [in my life]: I have never spilled a man's blood and I have never taken anyone's money…"[23]

In light of its concern about the repercussions of the Syrian revolution, Egypt has restricted the entry of Syrian nationals into the country. The website of the Saudi Al-Arabiya news channel reported that Syrians who have residency permits in the U.S., Canada and Europe – even ones who are married to Egyptian citizens – are required to obtain security clearance to enter Egypt, and this includes Syrians who hold Schengen visas.[24] Following the conversation between the Egyptian and Syrian foreign ministers, it was reported that Egypt had tightened these restrictions even further, and that its civil aviation authority  had sent a memorandum to foreign airlines stating that all Syrians are barred from entering Egypt, other than those who hold a non-tourist visa. At the same time, the Syrian Embassy in Egypt announced an easing of restrictions for Syrians in the country interested in returning to Syria.[25] According to another report on Alarabiya.net, residence permits for Syrian expats in Egypt will not be renewed without security clearance, and the Egyptian security apparatuses have compiled a list of Syrians who are to be expelled from the country for security reasons.[26]

These steps are presumably aimed at preventing Syrian extremists, including ones who hold European passports, from entering its territory to incite or perpetrate terrorism there. Expressions of joy by Syrian expats in Egypt over the Syria revolution likewise sparked concern that local elements in Egypt, especially those associated with the MB, would be encouraged to promote a similar development there.[27]

Furthermore, several specific events sparked apprehension in Egypt that the MB and jihadist elements may indeed be preparing to take action against the regime. The first was a statement issued by the Change Movement, a faction of the MB founded by Muhammad Kamal,[28] praising the revolution in Syria and urging young MB members of all factions[29] to stage a similar revolution against Al-Sisi's government.[30]

The second event was the publication of a photograph taken in Syria showing Mahmoud Fathy – an Egyptian Salafist who has been implicated in the 2015 assassination of Egypt's attorney general, Hisham Barakat – with the leader of the new Syrian leadership, Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Yasin Aktay, an advisor to Turkish President Erdogan. Fathy, who was involved in the 2011 revolution against Hosni Mubarak and was slated to serve on Mohammad Morsi's MB government,[31] has likewise praised Al-Sharaa and the Syrian revolution on his X account and criticized Al-Sisi while calling for a similar revolution in Egypt.[32] On December 8, 2024, for example, he wrote: "God! The Al-Aqsa Flood has caused an earthquake in the region. Increase the "Flood of Al-Sham" [i.e., the Syrian revolution] so that it will release [us] from the tyrants and criminals.[33] In another post he condemned the building of palaces while people are going hungry, hinting at the building of the presidential palace in Egypt's new administrative capital.[34] He also called on the Egyptians to stage a revolution in their country in order to "extricate [themselves] from humiliation" and live in dignity.[35]


Mahmoud Fathy (right) with Ahmed Al-Sharaa (center) and Yasin Aktay (Image: X.com/BakryMP, December 17, 2024)

In addition, according to reports on the websites of the Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath channels, Turkey warned Fathy not to remain in Syria after he promoted a campaign called "the Flood of the Nation" aimed at sparking an attack on the Egyptian regime similar to Hamas' Al-Aqsa Flood (i.e., the October 7 attacks) against Israel.[36]

A third factor was a video circulated on social media by Abd Al-Rahman Al-Qaradawi, the son of extremist cleric Yousuf Al-Qaradawi who died several years ago in Qatar and was a major MB ideologue. In the video, which was filmed in Syria, Abd Al-Rahman Al-Qaradawi expressed support for the revolution there and said that similar events are expected to occur in Egypt, Syria, the UAE and in other countries, which will not be able to prevent the "flood of change" that started on October 7 in Gaza. Al-Qaradawi, who left Syria for Lebanon, was arrested there at Egypt's behest and later extradited to the UAE.[37] 

Another relevant event was the promotion of Alaa Muhammad Abd Al-Baqi, an Egyptian former operative in the jihadist organization Jabhat Al-Nusra, to the rank of aqid (colonel) in Syria's new army. This appointment, and the appointment of other non-Syrian Arab jihadists to senior roles in the new regime, increase the concern in Arab countries that these figures may return to their home countries to act against the regimes there. According to reports in the Arab media, it is these appointments, and in particular that of Al-Baqi, that are preventing the consolidation of ties between Egypt and the new Syrian leadership.[38]

Yet another cause for concern was a statement issued on January 11 by Ahmed Al-Mansour, an Egyptian jihadist who was involved in the revolution against Mubarak and later fought against the Assad regime in Syria and eventually joined HTS. In his statement he announced the establishment of a movement called the January 25 Rebels (a reference to the date of the Mubarak's downfall, January 25, 2011) aimed at overthrowing the Al-Sisi regime. Before issuing this statement Al-Mansour published posts on his X account calling on Egyptian oppositionists to unite against Al-Sisi in order to depose him. The posts led the Egyptian authorities to arrest members of Al-Mansour's family.[39] Several days later it was reported that Al-Mansour himself had been arrested in Syria, apparently because his statements were at odds with the message the new Syrian regime seeks to convey regarding its desire to forge good relations with the neighboring countries.[40]  According to the websites of the Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath channels, Al-Mansour is in contact with Mahmoud Fathy, and it is the latter who encouraged him to incite rebellion in Egypt.[41]


Cartoon in Egyptian daily: The armed factions have taken over the Syrian regime with the aim of partitioning Syria (Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, December 16, 2024)


Cartoon in Egyptian daily: The jihadists are pursuing Syria (Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, December 16, 2024)


Cartoon in Egyptian daily: "The armed factions" are threatening Syria (Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, December 18, 2024)

The Initial Response Of The Egyptian Press To The Syria Revolution: Al-Sharaa Was And Remains A Terrorist Acting In The Service Of The U.S.

As stated, upon the outbreak of the revolution in Syria and the downfall of the Assad regime, many articles in the Egyptian press stressed the terrorist past of Syria's new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Al-Joulani) and warned against being taken in by his new image. In an article titled "Al-Joulani – The New American Look," Hamdy Rizk, the former editor of the daily Al-Masri Al-Yawm, accused the U.S. of burnishing Al-Sharaa's image in an attempt to cleanse him of his terrorist past and portray him as a more moderate leader, fit to rule Syria.

He wrote: "As the armed factions, which are designated as terrorist, arrived in the city of Aleppo, their online platforms posted a picture of a bearded man who resembled Al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden, dressed in a military uniform, who was leading the march on Damascus to topple [the regime of President Bashar] Al-Assad.

"[But then] the picture changed overnight. As the march progressed, the image of the international terrorist Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani, leader of HTS, underwent a complete transformation. In his recent appearance, in an exclusive interview on CNN [on December 6], the terrorist was [already] sporting a new and different look, meticulously crafted, as though the American network was introducing a new face to Hollywood, a face from which every [trace of] the former terrorist had been washed away. [However,] the new look Al-Joulani was sporting, with the sculpted beard, will not change his terrorist character, just as his renouncement of his nickname Al-Joulani will not cleanse him of his sins…

"The American factories' attempt to whitewash [Al-Joulani's image] has been exposed and it won't fool any intelligent man. I fear that, in the next [stage], now that Al-Joulani's name has been changed to Ahmed Al-Sharaa, he will be removed from the international terrorism list,  welcomed by [various] capitals that are interested in making deals under the table, and receive support for declaring an Islamic emirate [in Syria]."[42]

Gallal Aref, formerly the head of Egypt's Supreme Council for Media and the chairman of the Egyptian Press Council, and currently a columnist for the Egyptian government daily Akhbar Al-Yawm, wrote in a similar vein: "There is no doubt about it: Washington is leading the political mobilizing of its allies in favor of the [HTS] organization, which currently controls Damascus. Although this organization is still on its terror lists, America seems to be pleased with the results of its [efforts to] whitewash this organization and its head, Al-Joulani, who is now seeing American and European envoys rushing to him one after the other. He is making apparently moderate statements, and the U.S. and the West are making other statements, which indicate that the whitewashing of terror may have been successful this time!

"The U.S. and the West have plenty of experience with terrorist organizations that brandish religious slogans, and the consequences [of this experience] have been devastating for the countries and the peoples of this region… The U.S. gambled on Al-Qaeda and on the Taliban in the past, and the gamble failed. It would have handed the entire Arab world over to the terrorist rule of the MB[43] if Egypt hadn't stood up… and removed the [MB's] terror regime, rescued the homeland and stopped that black [organization] from advancing on the whole Arab world. In all of these cases we heard the American-Western discourse that whitewashed terror and presented it as democratic, rational, civilized and patriotic, and in all of them the consequences were bitter..."[44]


Cartoon in Egyptian daily: there's no difference between "the former Ahmed Al-Joulani" and "today's Ahmed Al-Sharaa" (Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, December 16, 2024)


Cartoon in Egyptian daily: Ahmed Al-Sharaa is a pawn in the hands of the U.S. in the regional chess game (Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, December 22, 2024)

Egyptian Articles Voice Fear That MB Elements Will Act Against Egypt From Syria With The Assistance Of The New Syrian Regime

Egyptian Journalist: The MB May Act To Regain Control Of Egypt

The concern in Egypt that the MB would act against it from Syria was especially evident in articles by journalist Abd Al-Qader Shahib in the independent weekly Veto. Following the publication of the photo showing Egyptian oppositionist Mahmoud Fathy with HTS leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Erdogan's advisor Yasin Aktay, Shahib wrote: "One picture that was published recently has sparked many fears! The picture shows the leader of HTS, formerly [known as] Al-Joulani and now as Al-Sharaa, in Damascus with MB member Mahmoud Fathy, who was accused of involvement in the assassination of Attorney General Hisham Barakat and who escaped to Turkey, [leading] Egypt to ask Interpol to arrest him…

"Some concluded [from this picture] that Mahmoud Fathy was fighting in the ranks of HTS [and participating in the campaign] to topple the Bashar Al-Assad regime, and therefore expressed  concern that, in its new period [i.e., under the new regime], Syria would become an incubator and a refuge for MB members who have fled Egypt… Others arrived at a more dangerous and far-reaching conclusion, namely that Syria will become a platform for launching new acts of MB violence and terrorism inside Egypt… [They believe this] especially because that picture of Al-Joulani with the MB member [Fathy] was circulated right after the Egyptian Kamelist stream [i.e., the Change Movement of the MB] called on the [two other MB] factions, of Mahmoud Hussein [in Turkey] and Ibrahim Mounir [in London],[45] to do in Egypt what the armed factions did in Syria, which ultimately led to the collapse of the Bashar Al-Assad regime – in other words, to employ violence in order to restore the [MB] regime in Egypt…

"The concerns of these people are justified, for HTS, which currently rules Syria, shares a common background with the MB. This is an extremist background that will not be cancelled or driven out by Al-Joulani reclaiming his real name, or by the moderate image he projected after his forces entered Damascus, or by the reassuring political messages he has been careful to convey to the domestic Syrian arena and to the external arena, or by removing his name and the name of his organization from the terrorist lists of the UN and the U.S.

"Our experience with the MB over almost a century proves this, for they have repeatedly [attempted] to burnish their image, don a mantle of moderation and renounce extremism, yet they never [really] changed from extremists into moderates. This means that HTS has something in common with the MB, namely the religious extremism that always leads to violence. It cannot be ruled out that the new leaders of Syria will provide assistance and support to the MB in Egypt and to its international organization…

"With this photograph, the HTS leader publicly declared his ties to the MB, and specifically to [its members] who are involved in violence – [and all this] while wearing a mantle of moderation! The meeting between the two figures could have been held in secret and not been photographed, but the picture is a deliberate declaration [of the relationship between them], and this was not done incidentally or inadvertently… In light of these concerns, care and vigilance are called for…"[46]

In another article, published after the arrest of Abd Al-Rahman Al-Qaradawi in Lebanon, Al-Shahib wrote: "The [Muslim] Brotherhood [members] believe that, after what has happened in Syria, they have found a new safe haven [there], better than Turkey and Qatar, and a springboard for their actions against Egypt… They draw encouragement from the past of Syria's new leaders, who have ties to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Moreover, some of the symbolic actions [of Syria's new leaders] cast doubt on their [ability] to let Syria be a civil state incorporating all sectors of the Syrian people, rather than a religious state or a province of the great Caliphate State… Perhaps that is why Egypt is so slow to show openness to the new Syrian leadership and is not forming ties with it like others, who have sent envoys to Damascus to meet with Syria's new leaders. [It believes that] they must first of all prove that they will not allow the MB to use their country to initiate action against us, as Al-Qaradawi's son [implied]."[47]


Cartoon in Egyptian daily: "Political Islam" writes: "How to destroy a country from within" (Al-Masri Al-Yawm, Egypt, December 24, 2024)

Egyptian Journalist To The New Syrian Regime: Do Not Provide A Platform For Exporting Revolutions And Fomenting Terror In Our Country

Journalist Essam Al-Obaidi wrote in his column in the daily Al-Wafd following the statement issued by Ahmed Al-Mansour, the Egyptian jihadist who fought with the rebels in Syria,  announcing the establishment of the January 25 Rebels movement, aimed at overthrowing the Egyptian regime: "As expected, the bad news came from the new Syrian regime. The so-called  January 25 Rebels [movement] published several videos calling for a new revolution in Egypt to topple its regime, as happened in our sister [country] Syria!...

"It's true that we Egyptians are suffering and complaining bitterly about the cost of living and the lack of freedoms, but none of that will cause us to agree to have our regime overthrown in tumultuous revolutions that will consume everything. We have already experienced revolutions and have been burned by their flames… We therefore say to the new regime in Syria: Just as we respected the will of your people and refrained from interfering it in in any way, we ask you to respect our choices and our concern for our country, and refrain from interfering in our affairs. Do not let your country, which we love, become a platform for launching revolutions and encouraging terror in our country. We have already experienced the terrorist MB gangs and found them to be of no use whatsoever… The new Syrian regime must urgently investigate who allowed those gangs, which claim to speak on behalf of the Egyptian people, [to incite against the Egyptian regime] when the Egyptian people have nothing to do with them…"[48]

Calls For The Egyptian Regime To Address The Cost Of Living And Show Openness To The "Civil Opposition"

In light of the danger posed to the Egyptian regime by the MB, some journalists called on the Al-Sisi regime to show greater openness to the civil opposition in the country and draw closer to the people.  Abd Al-Qader Shahib wrote: "The current takeover of the Syrian regime by HTS following Assad's downfall surely provides a sort of moral boost to the MB, which is likely to affect its positions, its behavior, and its attempts to revitalize the organization within Egypt – attempts which ceased in recent years… There is no way to cope with all of this, other than by adhering to national unity. The authorities can accomplish this by moving closer to the people and acting to solve their problems, starting with the high cost [of living], and by adopting a clear media discourse that unifies rather than divides and is convincing rather than aggravating, and by demonstrating receptiveness to public opinion.[49]

In an article in the Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' daily, former Egyptian MP Bassel Adel warned that the takeover of Syria by armed Islamist extremists poses a danger to the entire Middle East, and urged the Egyptian government to demonstrate greater openness to the civil opposition as a way of strengthening the cohesion of Egyptian society and contending with the MB. He wrote: "The balance of the Middle East and the of the entire Arab nation is facing a direct threat, and Egypt is at the heart of the nation and the Middle East and is the foundation of this balance. Therefore, we must now be vigilant in our [country], Egypt, and beware any effort to break our unity or to divert attention from the supreme goal, which is Egypt's stability. Every political faction must remain alert, because internal stability is the most effective shield against [hostile] external ambitions. So we must all stand shoulder to shoulder and hand in hand with the political regime in these moments of greatest danger, which is evident in all the events occurring in the Arab sphere and in the Middle East.

"Furthermore, one of the preventive measures and ways to defend Egypt's security is understanding the necessity of maintaining all the procedures and manifestations of political openness that must be shown to the 'civil opposition,' [such as] opening up the public sphere and strengthening the internal forces of society… while also exercising the necessary caution in contending with the Islamist streams and branches in Egypt…"[50]

Egyptian Journalists: Complete Lack Of Contact With The New Syrian Regime Will Endanger Our National Security

However, in contrast to the many articles that warned against befriending the new Syrian regime, some called on the Egyptian regime and on the other Arab countries to establish relations with the new Syrian leadership despite the concerns about its extremism, in order to avoid leaving the Syrian arena to other regional and international actors, which, they said, could be detrimental to the Arabs and to Egypt's security.

Egyptian journalist Mustafa Barakat wrote: "Since the fall of the regime of ousted Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, the Egyptian public has been concerned about what is happening in neighboring Syria, a country with which Egypt shares historical memories on the political, military and cultural levels...

"Due to concerns that the experience of the MB [coming to power in Egypt] might be repeated in the neighboring Arab [country, i.e., in Syria], [Egypt's media] coverage became clearly biased against [Syria's new leader Ahmed] Al-Sharaa, to an extent that could be described as incitement to sever [the relations] between the two countries even before the picture became clear…

"But despite all these concerns, would it [really] be beneficial for Egypt to sever [relations] with Syria's new leaders in advance? Or would it be better [to adopt a policy of] cautious rapprochement, as some countries, including superpowers, have done? The logical answer, according to policy research recommendations, is the latter – cautious rapprochement – because the history that binds the two countries is difficult to erase in a single emotional moment. A voluntary Egyptian withdrawal from Syria, our sister Arab neighbor, with all the strategic depth it represents for us, poses a danger to Egypt's national security, because military history books have taught us that [our national security] begins in the Taurus Mountains of southern Turkey."[51]

Imad Al-Din Hussein, editor of the Egyptian daily Al-Shurouq, likewise argued that the Arab countries must not abandon Syria at this time and leave it at the mercy of Turkey, the U.S., and Israel, as they previously did in Iraq. He wrote: "...We all remember the unfortunate Arab experience of 2003, when the U.S. and the U.K. invaded Iraq, toppled Saddam Hussein's regime, and then brought groups of Iraqi politicians back from exile in the West or Iran, politicians who were hostile to one another [and returned to Iraq] mounted on the [American and British] tanks.

"The Arab governments distanced themselves from Iraq so as to avoid being accused of supporting the occupiers and normalizing relations with them, and then left Iraq and ignored it completely. U.S. governor Paul Bremer, who served as the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq, dismantled the Iraqi army and most of the state institutions, creating fertile ground for the establishment of dozens of terrorist organizations and resistance groups in Iraq. The result was that the U.S. practically handed Iraq over to Iran on a silver platter, and it took Iraq about 20 years to begin its gradual recovery. Yet the militias still exist [there], and many of them are more loyal to Iran than to Iraq. The experience of Iraq teaches us that the Arabs must not abandon Syria and let Israel, the U.S. and Turkey have the final victory there.

"A different view holds that it is impossible to maintain ties with the present authorities in Syria, because they are rooted in extremist [groups like] ISIS, Al-Qaeda and the MB, and will therefore find it difficult to change their outlook. Therefore, [according to this view,] the solution is to ignore them and not engage with them. But the question [that must be posed to] the proponents of this view is: What happens after [we] disregard and shun them? How will we be able to influence the future situation in Syria?!

"This question faces us all, and all the Egyptian and Arab elites must invest every effort in a serious, objective and calm deliberation… so as to formulate a pragmatic approach that considers the supreme Arab interests and protects Syria, its people, its land, its unity and its Arab identity."[52] 

* B. Chernitsky is a research fellow at MEMRI.

 

[1] Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham began in 2012 as a group called Jabhat Al-Nusra, which Al-Joulani established after being sent to Syria by ISIS founder Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. In 2013 the group became the official branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria after Al-Joulani swore allegiance to Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri. In 2016, Al-Joulani severed ties with Al-Qaeda, and his group merged with several other Syrian Islamist groups and changed its name to Jabhat Fath Al-Sham. In 2017, after merging with additional Syrian groups, the group's name was changed again, to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham. The group is a designated terrorist organization in the U.S. and in several other countries.

[3] Al-Arabi Al-Jadid (London), December 27, 2024; Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), December 31, 2024.

[4] Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), December 24, 2024. It should be noted that the economic situation in Egypt has deteriorated in the last few years, sparking increasing concern that the MB may take advantage of this crisis. See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 10605 - Egyptian Journalists Criticize Regime's Economic Policy: Poverty Is A Ticking Bomb; Even The Middle Class Has 'Supermarket Blues' – November 5, 2023.

[5] For example, former deputy interior minister Marwan Mustafa accused the MB of circulating old videos of protests in order to incite the Egyptian public to launch a new Arab Spring in the country (Alarabiya.net, December 24, 2024). President Al-Sisi himself referred to "lies and rumors" spread on social media in order to undermine the people's faith in the authorities, but refrained from explicitly pointing the finger at the MB (Al-Ahram, Egypt, December 22, 16, 2024). 

[6] According to reports, Turkey and Qatar are advancing economic projects in Syria, particularly in the energy sector, which could diminish Egypt's regional influence in this domain. Muhammad Abu Al-Fadl, editorial board manager  of the Al-Ahram daily, wrote in his column in the Emirati newspaper Al-Arab that Turkey is establishing a "Sunni Crescent" to replace Iran's "Shi'ite Crescent" (Al-Arab, London, December 21, 2024).

[9] Al-Arab (London), December 16, 2024.

[10] Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), December 8, 2024; Al-Arabi Al-Jadid (London), January 5, 2025.

[11]  Live phone calls on the programs have been banned, and the programs themselves have been shortened, except for interviews with the Mufti, the Minister of Endowments and the Sheikh of Al-Azhar. It was also decided that opinions and commentary presented on the programs would be reviewed with religious experts in advance (Al-Yawm Al-Sabi', Egypt, December 24, 2024).

[12] Al-Arabi Al-Jadid (London), December 25, 2024; Al-Ahram (Egypt), December 31, 2024.

[13] This claim was made both in articles and by politicians and activists, such as politician Mustafa Bakri (Elaph.com, December 23, 2024). 

[14] See statement issued by Egypt's Foreign Ministry (Facebook.com/MFAEgyptEnglish/?locale=ar_AR, December 8, 2024). Two days later the Foreign Ministry stressed that the comprehensive political process in Syria must take place without external intervention, in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2254 (Facebook.com/MFAEgypt/posts, December 10, 2024). President Al-Sisi also stressed the need for a comprehensive political process in Syria in his meetings with various leaders, for instance in his December 19, 2024 meeting with Turkish President Erdogan (Alarabiya.net, December 19, 2024).

[15] Asharq.com, December 14, 2024.

[16] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), December 20, 2024.

[17] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 15, 2024. It should be noted that, according to Jordanian reports about Al-Sisi's December 16 meeting in Cairo with King Abdullah II of Jordan, both leaders stressed that they "respect the choices of the brothers in Syria" – but those words did not appear in the official Egyptian statement on this meeting (Presidency.eg/ar, Facebook.com/RHCJO/posts, December 16, 2024).

[18] Gate.ahram.org.eg, December 31, 2024.

[19] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), January 12, 2025.

[20] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), January 5, 2025. The Egyptians stressed that this would not be the last planeload of assistance they would send to Syria.

[21] See e.g., a message by Egyptian politician and media personality Mustafa Bakri, who cited a senior Egyptian source as denying this claim (X.com/BakryMP, December 28, 2024).

[22] Al-Ahram (Egypt), December 16, 2024. In referring to terrorist organizations and cells, Al-Sisi may have been alluding inter alia to Syrian anti-Assad activists who have found refuge in Egypt. According to journalist Muhammad Sayyid Ahmed, some of those Syrians expressed support for MB President Muhammad Morsi and are now expressing support for the Syrian revolution (Vetogate.com, January 7, 2025).

[23] Gate.ahram.org.eg; Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 15, 2025.

[24] Alarabiya.net, December 15, 2024. The signatories to the Schengen Agreement comprise 29 countries in Europe that signed the Schengen Area Treaty establishing a uniform immigration policy in those countries. Border inspections were cancelled among 27 of the countries, and a joint visa – the Schengen Visa – was introduced.

[25] Alarabiya.net, asharq.com, January 3, 2025; aawsat.com, January 4, 2025.

[26] Alarabiya.net, December 16, 2024.

[27] Al-Arab (London), December 16, 2024.

[28] Muhammad Kamal founded the military wing of the MB and was killed in 2016.

[29] The two other factions of the MB are the one that operates from London, led by Salah Abdel-Haqq, and the one that operates from Istanbul, headed by Mahmoud Hussein (Aawsat.com, October 17, 2022).

[30] Facebook.com/ikhwanalexandria.official, December 13, 2024.

[31] X.com/mmfathy01?lang=ar, December 21, 2024.

[32] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), December 17, 2024.

[33] X.com/mmfathy01?lang=ar, December 8, 2024.

[34] X.com/mmfathy01?lang=ar, December 21, 2024.

[35] X.com/mmfathy01?lang=ar, January 6, 2025.

[36] Alarabiya.net, January 16, 2025.

[37] Al-Qaradawi has been sentenced by an Egyptian court in absentia to five years in prison on charges of inciting terror and violence in the country (X.com/TurkiShalhoub, December 27, 2024; Al-Shar Al-Awsat, London, December 30, 2024, January 8, 2025. See MEMRI TV Clip No. 11693, Abdul Rahman Al-Qaradawi, Son Of Late Muslim Brotherhood Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, Visits Damascus, Celebrates New Syrian Leadership, Says: 'Shameful Arab Regimes' Cannot Stop The 'Flood Of Change' Launched From Gaza On October 7, December 27, 2024.

[38] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), January 6, 2025.

[40] X.com/Almthdth25jan, January 15, 2025; Elaph.com, January 16, 2025.

[41] Alarabiya.net, January 16, 2025.

[42] Al-Masri Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 8, 2024.

[43] The reference is apparently to the stance of the Obama administration on the ouster of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 and the subsequent election of Muhammad Morsi, of the MB. This administration  expressed support for the right of all political forces in Egypt, including the MB, to compete for the parliament and the presidency. See e.g., remarks made by then State Secretary Hillary Clinton in June 2011 (reuters.com, June 30, 2011). 

[44] Akhbar Al-Yawm (Egypt), December 17, 2024.

[45] Ibrahim Mounir died in 2022 and was succeeded by Sallah Abd Al-Haqq.

[46] Akhbar Al-Yawm (Egypt). December 18, 2024.

[47] Vetogate.com, December 30, 2024.

[48] Al-Wafd (Egypt). January 14, 2025.

[49] Veto (Egypt), December 13, 2024.

[50] Al-Yawm Al-Sabi' (Egypt), December 17, 2024.

[51] Veto (Egypt), December 21, 2024.

[52] Al-Shurouq (Egypt), December 22, 2024.

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