Introduction
At a time when international attention is focused on the Israeli offensive in Gaza, Islamic militant groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir have stepped up their activities.
In Pakistan's tribal region, Taliban militants have strengthened their control; Taliban-supported Sunni militants have wiped out – as noted by a Pakistani newspaper – pockets of Shi'a Muslims; and not a day goes by without an innocent man being dubbed a "U.S. spy" and being decapitated by the Taliban.
In Afghanistan, Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants based in the mountains of Tora Bora, where Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden escaped the wrath of the U.S. military, have issued a message to the incoming U.S. President Barack Obama demanding that he withdraw U.S. troops and threatening to blow up Washington, D.C. At the same time, U.S. and NATO casualties are on the rise.
In Indian Kashmir, the Pakistan-backed Islamic militants sustained a days-long armed standoff with Indian troops, much like the standoff during the November 26-29 Mumbai terror attacks, and then escaped. Also, while the Pakistani government refuses to admit the role of Pakistan-based militants in the Mumbai terror attacks, there are new terror threats to hotels in India.
This report will examine these rising jihadist threats in detail.
Pakistan's Tribal Region
In the Hangu district of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP), clashes between Taliban-backed Sunni groups and Shi'a Muslims have led to the killings of nearly 40 people, in a new wave of violence that began January 9, 2009.[1] Approximately 60% of Shi'a Muslims have been forced to abandon their homes and emigrate from the district.
In Hangu and the neighboring tribal district of Kurram Agency, the violence against Shi'a Muslims has reached the magnitude of ethnic cleansing. In a January 13, 2009 editorial, the Pakistani daily The News observed:
"Tribes, broken up into Sunnis and Shi'as, have once more been battling each other. Tensions seem to have risen with the advent of the Muslim month of mourning – Muharram – an occasion that has repeatedly triggered violence over the past decade. This is of course immensely sad, given the sanctity of the month for Muslims of all sects.
"So far, tribal elders attempting to mediate between the fighting tribes have failed to restore peace in Hangu. Even if they do achieve a breakthrough, one fears that it will be short-lived. This, after all, is what has happened each time in the past... The sectarian [Shi'a-Sunni] violence in areas such as Parachinar in the Kurram Agency has resulted in what amounts to brutal ethnic cleansing. It is said that large pockets of Shi'as have been entirely wiped out, or else have fled, fearful of death. It is unfortunate that this should still happen, in a day and age that is described as 'civilized."'[2]
It should also be noted that in almost all Pakistan towns and cities, a number of religious, political and leftist organizations protest on a daily basis, by the hundreds of thousands, against the Israeli offensive in Gaza – but that these groups are silent over the killings of Shi'a Muslims in the Hangu district. An examination of www.jasarat.com, the website of the Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Jasarat, a Jamaat-e-Islami daily, since the beginning of the Israeli offensive in Gaza on December 26, 2008, reveals that from December 28, 2008 until now not a day has passed without the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan protesting or issuing a statement against the Israeli attacks.[3] Other than the Jamaat-e-Islami, groups that have protested prominently against the Gaza attacks include: Imamia Students Organization, a Shi'a group; Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan; Jafria Students Organization; Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam; Islami Jamiat Tulaba; Pakistani Awami Tehreek; civil society groups led by actress Samina Pirzada; Pakistan Workers' Federation, and others.
On the other hand, the violence against Shi'a Muslims in the Hangu district shows no sign of ending. On January 12, 2009, the Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Mashriq reported that the "non-local Taliban" in the Hangu district have rebuffed a peace deal agreed upon by the elders of the Sunni and Shi'a Muslims.[4] The failure of the Pakistani Army during the past year to apprehend or kill a single influential commander of the Taliban has probably emboldened the Taliban's position.
In the Swat district of the North West Frontier Province, the Taliban militants led by Maulana Fazlullah have established near-total control. Maulana Fazlullah is the son-in-law of Islamist leader Sufi Muhammad, who was released by the Pakistani government last year under a deal. According to a report in the Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Jasarat, Taliban commander Maulana Fazlullah has established control over 80 percent of the Swat district, running his own government with its own Shari'a courts, FM radio stations, policing militias, and so on. Roznama Jasarat added: "There is no effective [Pakistani] state in Swat. No damage was done to Fazlullah group [of the Taliban] and its leadership during the military operation."[5]
In the Swat district, the Taliban have ordered total ban on female education from January 15, 2009; women have been banned from visiting government offices that issue ID cards to Pakistani citizens; local politicians are running for cover from the Taliban militants; and policemen have been placing ads in local newspapers, announcing that they have quit their government jobs. During the past year, over 700 policemen have resigned their jobs in this manner.[6] The University of Malakand, based in the Swat region, has ordered female students to be veiled on campus.[7] The Taliban have stepped up the killing of anybody who could potentially oppose them. The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Mashriq reported on January 6. 2009, that during just one week, 39 bodies were recovered in the Swat district of people killed by the Taliban on different charges, among them the allegations of spying for the U.S.[8]
In the tribal districts of South and North Waziristan, not a day passes without a body found with a hand-written note from the Taliban, stating that the person killed was a spy working for the U.S. and Pakistan. On January 5, 2009, one of these notes found with a body warned: "[This is] a gift from the Mujahideen to the U.S. secretary of state. Anyone who goes hunting for dollars will be treated the same way."[9] Local journalists report that during the past few weeks, there has been a rise in the Taliban's killing of so-called "U.S. spies."
In fact, the entire tribal region, situated along the border with Afghanistan, is slipping away from the Pakistani control. On January 11, a group of 600 Taliban militants attacked three security checkposts in the tribal district of Mohmand Agency. At least 40 militants and nine Pakistani security personnel were killed during the ensuing fighting.[10]
In the first week of January, the Taliban abducted 11 tribal elders in the tribal district of Bajaur Agency where a nearly six-month-long operation by the Pakistani Army has not been able to dislodge the Taliban. The tribal elders were abducted as they were returning from a meeting to establish an anti-Taliban force of tribal fighters supported by the Pakistani Army.[11] On January 12, 2009, in Peshawar, the capital of the North West Frontier Province, the Taliban militants, once again, fired rockets into terminals where the supplies for U.S. and NATO troops are stored before their onward journey to Afghanistan.[12]
Even in Quetta, the capital of the Baluchistan province, the Taliban are establishing strongholds. Former Pakistani Senator Sanaullah Baloch warned on January 4, 2009 that in Quetta, the Taliban and their supporters are consolidating their grip, with the involvement of elements in the Pakistani Army. The Baluchi leader added: "Several parts of the provincial capital have become 'no-go areas' where the Taliban and their supporters have consolidated their position..."[13]
There are also growing concerns that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants may capture Pakistani nuclear weapons. On January 3, the Information Minister of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Mian Iftikhar Hussain, warned that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants may capture the Pakistani nuclear installations. Hussain added: "If the terrorists are not checked, they may go beyond the NWFP, and capture Islamabad and Pakistani nuclear installations."[14]
Indian Kashmir
A day after the Israeli attacks in Gaza began, and a month after the Mumbai terror attacks, the Taliban threatened to send 500 suicide bombers into India. According to the Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Jasarat, Wali Muhammad, a spokesman for the Taliban, warned: "A squad of 500 suicide bombers is ready to fight against India. Thirty-five thousand Taliban fighters armed with modern weapons are ready to go to the eastern border [with India to fight alongside the Pakistani Army]."[15]
Recently, the militants developed a new strategy aiming for a redeployment of Pakistani troops, by withdrawing from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and redeploying them alongside the border with India. This allows the Taliban to better entrench their control in the tribal region of Pakistan. In fact, they have succeeded to a great extent, as Pakistan has removed nearly 30,000 troops from the tribal areas and re-deployed them on its Indian border.
Notwithstanding the international pressure on Pakistan following the November 26 Mumbai terror attacks, the militants have continued their activities in Indian Kashmir. In the early days of this year, a group of about 10 militants took up positions in a cave in the Bhati Dar area of the Poonch district in India's Jammu and Kashmir state, leading to fierce gunbattles with Indian security forces. According to Indian defense officials, intercepted messages from the militants revealed that top commanders of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Al-Badr were holed up in the caves.[16] (All three of these organizations were created in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence.) The fighting between the Indian troops and the militants continued for nine days, ceasing during nights and resuming each morning. Four militants and three security men were killed, but after nine days of fighting, several of the militants successfully escaped.[17]
The stand-off with the terrorists was similar to that of the Mumbai terror attacks, the only differences being that it took place far from media attention and that there were no civilian hostages. The fact that the militants escaped after nine days of fighting reflects the challenge faced by Indian security officials in dealing with terrorist threats.
As if this one armed confrontation between the jihadists in Kashmir and the Indian Army was not enough, two militants from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba and two Kashmiri policemen were killed in another such encounter, on January 13, 2009.[18] For the policymakers in India who thought that after the Mumbai terror attacks the activities of militant groups would decline, the jihad in Kashmir continues with increased vigor. These incidents highlight the fact that Islamic militants are on the offensive in India.
Deccan Mujahideen, a militant group whose name has been connected to several bomb blasts in India including the Mumbai terror attacks, threatened to attack an international meeting of non-resident Indians held January 7-9, 2009 in the southern city of Chennai.[19] Nothing is known about the leadership of Deccan Mujahideen, but in several instances in the past two years, the group sent emails to media houses a few minutes before blasts were to take place. In another such email threat, the Leela Group, a chain of five-star hotels, received bomb threats, in the second week of January. During an initial probe, it emerged that the message was sent from IP addresses in Kenya and in the United Arab Emirates, but from a single email ID – indicating the possibility that internationally linked groups of militants may be operating. An unidentified police official in Mumbai added that at least two people could be operating the single email ID.[20]
Afghanistan
In Afghanistan too, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants have recently been on the offensive. Three days after the Israeli offensive in Gaza began, a Taliban commander released an open letter to U.S. president-elect Barack Obama. The letter, by Maulawy Anwarulhaq Mujahid, chief of Tora Bora Battlefield in Afghanistan, warned that as long as the Baitul Maqdis, or the Jerusalem Mosque, remains under occupation, Israel and its supporters will have no peace.[21]
In the letter, published on December 30, 2008 on www.toorabora.com, Maulawy Anwarulhaq Mujahid demands that president-elect Obama withdraw U.S. troops not only from Afghanistan but also from all other Islamic nations. If the troops are not withdrawn, Mujahid warned, situations like those in Afghanistan's Helmand province and the Iraqi town of Fallujah will visit major cities like New York and Washington. He added that the flames of the conflict in Afghanistan and other Islamic nations will blow up on Washington.[22] This is a clear threat of another 9/11-like plan germinating the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Also, Gulbudin Hekmatyar, chief of Hizb-e-Islami in Afghanistan, is training over 4,000 Afghan youth for jihad against Israel: 750 youth in Wardak province, 500 in Logar province, 1,000 in Tagab (Kapisa), 400 in Nangarhar province, 1,500 students. The Hizb-e-Islami is preparing to send these fighters to Gaza.[23]
Meanwhile, the Taliban attacks on the U.S. and NATO troops continue unabated, with at least one U.S. or NATO soldier killed every day so far this month. On their part, the Taliban have consistently rejected appeals to join talks with the Afghan government to bring about a peaceful resolution of the conflict. In the first week of January, the Taliban in Afghanistan issued an assessment of the U.S. and NATO troops' performance, saying that the calls for peace were a result of heavy coalition casualties. They added: "Mujahedeen (fighters) of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have inflicted heavy defeat on the invading forces and their puppets on the military, political and social fronts."[24]
The Afghan government also fears that the Taliban are in a strong position now, especially after Pakistan removed thousands of its troops from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and redeployed them against India. A spokesman for Afghan President Hamid Karzai warned that the Taliban will increasingly enter Afghanistan freely.[25]
Conclusion
In the region of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, Islamic militant organizations have grown in strength in recent years. In the aftermath of the 11/26 Mumbai terrorist attacks, the links between the militant groups active in these three countries have been exposed to the international community's understanding. However, this has not prevented the jihadists in these countries from carrying on with their activities.
For example, Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group and several of its front organizations, including the Jamaatud Dawa charity, were banned by the UN Security Council (UNSC) following the Mumbai terror attacks. However, the Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) is working without any obstacle. On January 11, the Pakistani daily The News reported: "A month after the UNSC proscription... the black-and-white flag of the JuD continues to flutter high over its Muridke headquarters [near Lahore], putting a big question mark on the seriousness of the government to proceed against the outlawed organisation.... [D]espite a government ban on their statements and activities, most of the JuD leaders are moving freely and [have] even convened a public rally on the Mall in Lahore. The rally... was led by Yahya Mujahid, the central secretary of information of the JuD who was one of the 12 leaders supposed to have been placed under house arrest."[26]
Thus, these militant organizations find themselves away from the international attention; they are on an offensive to entrench their positions, to further their ideological mission and establish Islamic Shari'a in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region and beyond.
*Tufail Ahmad is Director of Urdu-Pashtu Media Project at The Middle East Media Research Institute (www.memri.org ).
Endnotes:
[1] Roznama Mashriq, Pakistan, January 12, 2009.
[2] The News, Pakistan, January 13, 2009.
[3] Except perhaps for Yaum-e-Ashura, the 10th day of Muharram on January 9, 2009, when newspapers were not published in Pakistan.
[4] Roznama Mashriq, Pakistan, January 12, 2009.
[5] Roznama Jasarat, Pakistan, January 8, 2009.
[6] Roznama Mashriq, Pakistan, January 5, 2009.
[7] Dawn, Pakistan, January 1, 2009.
[8] Roznama Mashriq, Pakistan, January 6, 2009.
[9] Daily Times, Pakistan, January 6, 2009.
[10] Roznama Khabrain, Pakistan, January 12, 2009.
[11] Wrazpanra Wahdat, Pakistan, January 7, 2009.
[12] Daily Times, Pakistan, January 13, 2009.
[13] Daily Times, Pakistan, January 5, 2009.
[14] Roznama Jasarat, Pakistan, January 4, 2009.
[15] Roznama Jasarat, Pakistan, December 28, 2008.
[16] The Hindu, India, January 5, 2009.
[17] The Hindu, India, January 9, 2009.
[18] Kashmir Times, Srinagar (India), January 14, 2009.
[19] Roznama Etemaad, India, January 5, 2009.
[20] Timesofindia.com, India, January 12, 2009.
[21] MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 2179, "In Open Letter to Barack Obama, the Chief of Tora Bora Battlefield In Afghanistan Warns: The Flames of this Fire will Blow Up on Washington," January 8, 2009, In Open Letter to Barack Obama, the Chief of Tora Bora Battlefield In Afghanistan Warns: The Flames of this Fire will Blow Up on Washington
[22] MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 2179, "In Open Letter to Barack Obama, the Chief of Tora Bora Battlefield In Afghanistan Warns: The Flames of this Fire will Blow Up on Washington," January 8, 2009, In Open Letter to Barack Obama, the Chief of Tora Bora Battlefield In Afghanistan Warns: The Flames of this Fire will Blow Up on Washington
[23] Wrazpanra Khabroona, Pakistan, January 14, 2009.
[24] Daily Times, Pakistan, January 7, 2009.
[25] Roznama Jasarat, Pakistan, January 2, 2009.
[26] The News, Pakistan, January 11, 2009.
