On August 1, 2022, the Associated Press reported that Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri had been killed in a drone strike.[1] The strike immediately prompted questions of who is likely to take over leadership of the organization – a power transfer that has not happened since Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011. The MEMRI Jihad And Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM) research team published an analysis two weeks ago on Al-Qaeda's leadership, titled "A Look Into Al-Qaeda's Current Leaders." Below are excerpts from the introduction of that analysis.
From the last known Al-Zawahiri recording, released July 14, 2022.
Excerpt From MEMRI JTTM EXCLUSIVE: 'A Look Into Al-Qaeda's Current Leaders'
Al-Qaeda has seen significant changes in the past few years, primarily due to the targeting of many of its leaders by U.S. military and intelligence counterterrorism campaigns, as well as the decline of some of the group's regional affiliates in the face of the rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) and other jihadi groups, like Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) in Syria.
The group's original circle of command has diminished, as the number of members who fought in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Osama Bin Laden era and remain alive and at large continues to shrink, leaving few potential heirs if top leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri dies or is captured.
Al-Qaeda functions as a highly decentralized network of affiliated insurgent groups, each active in its own region, with minimal oversight from the organization's Central Command.[2] These groups mainly carry out military operations against their local governments. The most recent attack against the U.S. or Western countries was claimed by Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in December 2019 – an attack on Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida.[3]
MEMRI JTTM has reviewed the statements, books, and multimedia productions disseminated by Al-Qaeda and its affiliated media outlets, which highlight the messaging and combat strategies of the organization's branches and leadership. Based on this research, the following report will provide insight on the remaining first generation of Al-Qaeda's leaders and on the modus operandi of its current regional leaders. It will also provide the available background information, presumed location, and media appearances of the leaders who are involved in localizing the organization's strategy across its regions of activity.
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[1] Apnews.com/hub/ayman-al-zawahri, August 1, 2022.
[2] See MEMRI JTTM reports: Source Close To Al-Qaeda Claims: Al-Qaeda In The Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) Offered Turkey 'Economic Concessions' In Exchange For Support; Points To Veiled Criticism Of Branch Leaders In Article By Al-Qaeda's Nigerian Affiliate, June 10, 2022; and Article In Magazine Published By Al-Qaeda's Nigerian Affiliate Rejects Allegations Of Al-Qaeda-Iran Collaboration, Claims Sayf Al-'Adl Is Free Outside Of Iran, July 5, 2022.
[3]See MEMRI JTTM reports: AQAP Claims Responsibility For Naval Air Station Pensacola Shooting Attack And Urges Muslims In The West To Execute More Attacks, Target Heads Of State, Carry Out Cyberattacks On Banks, February 3, 2020; and Pro-Al-Qaeda Media Outlet Hails Pensacola Shooting Following U.S. Confirmation Of Al-Qaeda In The Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Culpability, May 20, 2020.
