If The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Were To Rein In Its Provocations, The Indo Pacific Would Be A Much Safer Place

China is often accused of being the world's foremost peddler of fake news and distorted truths. The recent events in the Taiwan Strait gives credence to this assertion.

On October 10, 2024, at the Republic of China's (ROC) 113th Double Tenth National Day celebration, President Lai Ching-te delivered an address titled "Taiwan Together For Our Shared Dream." He cited the achievements of the Taiwanese people and affirmed the country's commitment to a bright future anchored on democracy and the rule of law. In his address, Lai reiterated Taiwan's firm position on sovereignty. "Regardless of what name we choose to call our nation – the Republic of China; Taiwan; or the Republic of China Taiwan – we must all share common convictions: Our determination to defend our national sovereignty remains unchanged. Our efforts to maintain the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait remain unchanged. Our commitment to hoping for parity and dignity, and healthy and orderly dialogue and exchanges between the two sides of the strait remains unchanged. Our determination, from one generation to the next, to protect our free and democratic way of life remains unchanged," Taiwan President Lai Ching-te stated.[1]

These words are not new. They have been uttered time and again by the leadership of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Declarations of this nature are typically met with verbal refutes from Beijing, but not this time. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took its reproach to the next level by responding with threatening propaganda and aggression.

Air Force patch shows Taiwan black bear punching Winnie the Pooh (i.e., Xi Jinping). (Source: @TaiwanNewsEN)

China Refers To President Lai's Declarations As "Nonsense"

Beijing circulated an animation depicting President Lai with pointed ears, as if he were a devil, with the map of Taiwan below him. A few seconds later, Lai's image disappears, and the video shows Chinese jets, warships, and troops surrounding Taiwan. The 15-second video was an ominous warning. As the cartoon circulated on social media, on October 14, 2024, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) undertook massive military drills in and around Taiwan's exclusive economic zone. The PLA announced that it had launched "punishment" military drills code-named "Joint Sword-2024B," involving the army, navy, air force, and rocket force, in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, south, and east of Taiwan, as a "stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces."[2] It was reported that the CCP used a record 153 military aircraft in the drills.[3]

China's Taiwan Affairs Office described the drills as a "resolute punishment for Lai Ching-te's continuous fabrication of 'Taiwan independence' nonsense."[4]

"Nonsense" – China referred to President Lai's declarations as "nonsense." Insults hurled at this level are a clear indication of an escalation and breakdown of diplomatic channels.

The CCP, Not Taiwan, Is The Active Provocateur

Mao Ning, the spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, further stated Beijing's official position on the matter. She said: "Taiwan independence is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Strait. And the provocation of the Taiwan forces will inevitably be countered."[5]

Mao's words are a perfect example of how China manipulates the truth and peddles disinformation. In one sentence, China attempted to convey three distorted truths.

One: "Taiwan's independence is incompatible with peace." The opposite is true. The status quo is peaceful. It is China's desire to subsume Taiwan and unify her with the mainland that is disturbing the peace and causing instability in the Taiwan Strait.

Two: "the provocation of the Taiwan forces." This implies that Taiwan is the active provocateur, which is not true. President Lai merely reiterated Taiwan's rights. It is in fact China's "punishment" drills that stoked instability anew.

Three: The statement as a whole implies that it is Taiwan that is escalating tensions. Again, this is not true. The ROC has not committed any act of aggression towards the CCP for decades. It is in fact China that has made it a practice to intimidate Taiwan by frequently sending military aircraft, including fighter jets and bombers, into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ). China upgraded installations of medium-range ballistic missile systems along its southeastern coast, aimed at Taiwan.[6] It regularly simulates blockades and encirclements on Taiwan. China's acts of escalation against Taiwan have intensified every year since Xi Jinping took power in 2013.

As expected, the Taiwanese government condemned both the Chinese statements and the "punishment" drills. The U.S. stated that China's "response with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation."[7]

China's reaction to Taiwan's statement on sovereignty brought tensions to new heights. It marked a new phase in cross-Strait hostilities.

CCP Expansionism

The peace-loving Taiwanese are not the only ones living under the specter of Chinese intimidation and threat of war. Nations across the Indo Pacific suffer the same bullying treatment from Beijing.

China is involved in a long list of territorial disputes that traverse terrestrial and maritime territories. Each country in whom China has a territorial dispute is on the receiving end of its bullying.

In land, China has a dispute with India over the Aksai Chin and the Arunachal Pradesh region. It has also border disputes with Bhutan and Nepal. It has successfully subsumed 1,158 square kilometers of the Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan.[8] Russia has also rejected the CCP's claim to all of Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island.[9]

At Sea, China has disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Japan.

The Philippines is the only country that filed a case against China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration under the framework of UNCLOS. The decision was passed in July 2016 and the court decided to the Philippine's favor.[10] Yet, China refuses to recognize the court's decision, effectively ignoring the rule of law. The communist country continues to illegally occupy others' maritime territories.

On November 8, 2024, the United States has lauded the Philippines' enactment of the Maritime Zones Act, which seeks to further buttress the country's sovereign rights over its waters, particularly the West Philippine Sea, in accordance with international law. In a statement, the U.S. State Department, through spokesman Matthew Miller, said the new law, signed by President Marcos, aligns Philippine domestic laws with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling. (Source: Philippines Star)

All these territorial disputes are hotspots for conflicts – some more intense than others. This has made China the primary cause of instability in the region.

Let's put it this way: If China were to rein in its aggression, respect the rule of law and abandon its pursuit of hegemony, the Indo Pacific would be a much safer, secure place where people could live in peace.

*Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star.