On The India-China Rivalry

India is positioning itself to be the next great powerhouse in the Indo Pacific, one that balances and challenges the influence of China. The rivalry between the two nations manifests itself in the realms of trade, military posture, diplomatic gravitas, and economic influence.

The world watches as the two nations compete to become the predominant superpower and representative of the global south. Although China is clearly stronger today, India is catching up fast with its economic momentum, military build-up, and diplomatic offensive. In fact, India has also launched its own loan program called the Neighborhood First Policy to match China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).[1]

(Source: X)

India FM Jaishankar: Relations With China Are Not Good, Not Normal

India's rise comes at an opportune time. China's economy is on a downward trend with crippling debt, declining foreign direct investments, and capital flight in the trillions of dollars. It is plagued with high youth unemployment, a property bust, diminished household wealth, low consumer demand, and the prospect of deflation. On top of these, China faces a demographic timebomb.

China's economic miracle is now a thing of the past having been destroyed by Xi's policies that abandoned free-trade mechanisms in favor of more rigorous state control through state-owned corporations. He doubled down on civil discipline and spooked foreign investors with stringent anti-espionage policies.

In terms of diplomatic relations, China's bad behavior in trade and refusal to abide by the rule of law have earned it a reputation as a pariah state. Its multiple and simultaneous territorial grabs, acts of aggression, debt traps, and support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine have caused it to become increasing isolated by law-abiding democracies.

India, on the other hand, is growing from strength to strength. It has overtaken China as the world's most populous nation with 1.43 billion consumers, the majority of whom are growing in wealth. It emerged as the fifth-largest global economy and continues to grow at a rate of six to seven percent annually. Today, India ranks fourth in the global firepower and military power index, 11th in diplomatic strength, fourth in innovation and technology, seventh in number of technological patents filed, and is the eighth-largest recipient of foreign direct investments.

The south Asian nation is the world's largest democracy with a record of compliance to the rule of law. Since 1947, it has followed the principle of non-alignment and peaceful coexistence. India's foreign policy is aimed at protecting its borders without actively seeking to acquire new territories. It has never started a war – its military conflicts have largely been in response to external aggression. Indian culture celebrates diversity, pluralism, philosophy, and spirituality.

India makes no secret of its ambitions to displace China as the world's second most powerful nation, after the U.S. Both countries no longer hide their contempt. In fact, Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar recently said: "So right now, if you asked me how are your relations with China, they're not good, they're not normal right now."[2]

China Blocks India's Access To The World

By surrounding India with military installations, China aims to restrict India's access to the world while gaining military leverage. This is China's way of quelling India's ambitions.

In the last decade, China has moved to surround India's southern coast with ports that function as military installations. Through its BRI program, China has developed and assumed control of Gwadar Port in Pakistan, Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port, the Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar, the Chittagong Port in Bangladesh, the Port of Lamu in Kenya, a naval base in Djibouti, and the Port of Dar Es Salam in Tanzania. These ports constitute a "string of pearls" meant to choke India's access to the world.

In the north, China laid claim to the Doklam Plataeau as well as the Jakarlung and Pasamlung Valley. The Doklam Plateau is a strategically significant as it is located at the junction of India, China, and Bhutan. The plateau is near the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow stretch of land in northeastern India that connects the mainland to its northeastern states. The corridor is only 20 kilometers wide, making it a vulnerable chokepoint. Chinese control over Doklam could potentially separate the Indian mainland from its seven states in the northeast.

In 2017, India and China engaged in a 73-day standoff over the Doklam Plateau. Both sides agreed to disengage after diplomatic talks. However, China stoked trouble anew by constructing infrastructure just beyond the standoff site.

The Jakarlung and Pasamlung Valleys are located along the disputed border between Bhutan and China. They are significant since they are near Tibet and could serve as access points for China to India. They are also near India's sensitive regions of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

The Gwadar Port is situated in the region of Balochistan, which is under the control of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

India Builds Alliances To Surround China

Just as China built its "string of pearls," India has built a "diamond necklace" with which to choke China's access to the Indian Ocean, East and South China Seas. It is a tit-for-tat response. The difference is – instead of gaining access to military bases by way of infrastructure deals and debt traps, India has done it by forging alliances with like-minded counties.

Among these alliances is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic alliance between India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia. The QUAD works to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region and a rule-based maritime order.

In the Gulf, India was granted military access to the Duqm Port in Oman, situated between China's strongholds in Pakistan's Gwadar Port and its military base in Djibouti. It also gained access to the Chabahar Port in Iran.[3] Similarly, it signed an agreement with the Seychelles for access to a naval base. This gives it presence in Africa.

In Asia, India was granted military access to the Changi Naval Base in Singapore. This gives it easy access to the Malacca, Lombok, and Sunda Straits. It was granted military access to the Sabang Port in Indonesia, which is within striking distance to the Malacca strait. India was also granted military access to the Cam Ranh Port in Vietnam. Meanwhile, India and the Philippines have begun to exchange emissiles.

The Chabahar Port is in the region of Balochistan (known as Sistan and Balochistan), under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran (source: Indiatoday.in)

Post-Peak Nations Act Radically As They Cling To Power Amid Decline

India and Japan signed an Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement.[4] This allows the militaries of both nations to exchange supplies and services, including airport and seaport services.

On September 9, 2020, in New Delhi, the Agreement between the Government of Japan and the Government of the Republic of India Concerning Reciprocal Provision of Supplies and Services between the Self-Defense Forces of Japan and the Indian Armed Forces (the so-called "Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement," or ACSA) was signed by H. E. Mr. SUZUKI Satoshi, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Japan to India, and then Indian Defense Secretary Dr. Ajay Kumar. (Source: Mofa.go.jp)

Recently, India and Mongolia concurred to leverage the Strategic Partnership to expand relations between the two countries in all sectors. India is now assured of cooperation from Mongolia, a country situated north of China.

On October 18, 2024, Prime Minister of Mongolia Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai met Minister of External Affairs of the Republic of India Subrahmanyam Jaishankar during his visit to Pakistan and exchanged views on cooperation. The parties expressed their satisfaction at the significant progress of the construction of the Oil Refinery, an important project for the cooperation between Mongolia and India and agreed to keep on cooperating closely to put the oil refinery into operation within the planned period. (Source: Montsame.mn)

More significantly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has gone on a diplomatic offensive to reach out to like-minded countries. Since 2014, he has undertaken 84 foreign trips covering 71 countries.

Time will tell whether India will surpass China as the second most influential nation on the planet and the predominant representative of the global south. Economic and diplomatic tailwinds are certainly working to their favor. Still, we will be foolhardy to underestimate China's military might. Post-peak nations tend to act radically as they cling to power amid decline.

*Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star.