In a May 10, 2024 interview with the Roydad 24 news outlet, Majlis member Dr. Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani revealed that Iran had achieved nuclear weapons – but that it was not announcing it at this stage so as not to frighten its allies Russia and China, or the world.
Bakhshayesh Ardestani, 63, represents Isfahan in the current Majlis and was a member of the Majlis National Security committee from 2012 to 2016. He is a professor of political science and a faculty member at the Open University in Tehran and Imam Sadeq University. He holds a doctorate in international relations from Australia's New South Wales University, with a focus on research in Iranian political thought and foreign policy.
Ardestani said in the interview that recent statements by Kamal Kharrazi, advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, along with statements by other regime elements, about the possibility of a change in Iran's nuclear doctrine from civilian to military were "a preliminary step before announcing that we have a nuclear bomb." (See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No 1761, Senior Iranian Regime Officials Warn Of Iran's Coming Nuclear Breakout.) He added: "In effect, we want to gradually make it known that we have achieved [this]... We do not want to announce it all at once and frighten the world."
Stating that "there is no need to inform the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that we have a nuclear bomb," he added that Iran is not revealing to IAEA inspectors where the bomb is being built, nor is it providing the IAEA access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. With regard to Khamenei's (nonexistent) fatwa ostensibly banning the production of nuclear weapons,[1] he explained that the fatwa is an "active" position on Iran's part – that is, Iran's defense doctrine has no room for nuclear weapons. But, he continued, in a situation in which Iran is threatened by its enemies, such as Israel which is acting against it (despite the fact that Iran denies Israel the right to exist and is striving to eliminate it), it requires Iran to take a "passive" position – that is, to possess nuclear weapons for defense and deterrence.
Ardestani states that based on Tehran's modus operandi, which he says is calculated and not risk-seeking, Iran would not have attacked Israel or the U.S.[2] with missiles unless it had the "backup" of a nuclear bomb – implying that it does. This, he said, is because both Israel and the U.S. have such weapons, and an escalation could lead to a war in which Iran faces a nuclear threat.
Although Ardestani noted that Iran is apprehensive about frightening its allies Russia and China, and that Russia does not want Iran to have a nuclear bomb, it expects that Russia will use its veto in the UN Security Council to thwart possible sanctions on Iran by the Western powers once it becomes known that Iran has a nuclear bomb. Likewise, Ardestani downplayed the possibility of further significant measures against Iran for acquiring a nuclear bomb, since it has already been targeted with all kinds of sanctions.
The ambiguity of Ardestani's statements is deliberate. He qualifies his comments about Iran's attainment of a nuclear bomb with "I feel that," "in my opinion," or "I say these things as an expert and as an analyst, and I don't yet have an official position [that will cause the IAEA] to inspect the facilities because of what I've said."
Therefore, it is possible that Ardestani's move is calculated – another in a series of statements by senior Iranian officials aimed at establishing in international public opinion the concept that Iran has nuclear weapons, or that Iran is entitled to them for deterrence as part of attaining a nuclear balance of terror vis-à-vis Israel and the U.S. (see MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No 1556, Iran Uses 'Maximum Pressure' On Biden Administration To Have Sanctions Lifted And Be Recognized As Nuclear Threshold State – And Based On This, To Attain Nuclear Balance Of Terror, February 5, 2021). As an academic specializing in political strategy who is also a politician, he allows for plausible deniability aimed at letting the world know that Iran either has or should have nuclear weapons to offset Israel's.
It appears that instead of detonating a nuclear device to show that Iran possesses nuclear weapons, Iranian officials have in recent weeks spoken about having a bomb, with the aim of preparing international opinion for its announcement that it has a bomb, and in order to temper any opposition to this. As Ardestani pointed out in concluding his interview: "I believe that Iran's becoming nuclear will gain gradual acceptance. As soon as you enter the nuclear club, they have to accept you. This deterrence [provided by possessing a nuclear weapon] makes the world realize that it respects Iran's role. Now, the wisdom of the masses in America understands that Iran cannot be ignored."
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani (Source: Roydad 24, May 10, 2024).
The following is a translation of Ardestani's May 10 interview:
"In My Opinion, We Have Achieved Nuclear Weapons, But We Aren't Announcing It; This Means That Our Actual Policy Is That [We] Have A Nuclear Bomb, While Our Declared Policy Is To Operate Within The Policy Of JCPOA".
Roydad 24: "Kamal Kharrazi, the head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, announced yesterday [May 8, 2024] that Iran has the ability to build a nuclear bomb, but that 'if we need to, we will change our nuclear doctrine.' These words drew criticism and broad speculation. Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the faculty at Imam Sadeq University, a representative in the 9th [2012-2016] and 12th [current] Majlis, and a member of the Majlis National Security Committee [in the 9th Majlis], told Roydad 24 on this matter:"
Ardestani: "Unrelated to Mr. Kharrazi's analysis, I feel that when Iran threatens American outposts in Iraq, and attacks them with 19 missiles [in January 2020], and when Iran launched 300 missiles at Israel [in April 2024], in [Iran's] political culture, this usually means that according to its calculations, Iran must have power."
To view the MEMRI TV clip of Kharrazi's May 8, 2024 statements, click here or below. Note: In the interview, Kharrazi states that if Iran faces an existential threat, it may change its nuclear policy from civilian to military.
Ardestani continues: "It appears that Iran has acquired nuclear weapons, [and that this is what] enabled it to attack Israel with such confidence [on April 14, 2024]. Previously, it attacked America's Ayn Al-Asad airbase [in Iraq on January 8, 2020, in response to the U.S. killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani]. In my opinion, we have achieved nuclear weapons, but we aren't announcing it. This means that our actual policy is that [we] have a nuclear bomb, while our declared policy is to operate within the policy of JCPOA.
"When countries want to enter into conflict with one another, they must be equals. For Iran to be equal to America and Israel, it must have a nuclear weapon. When Iran attacked Israel, it harmed America, because the complement of Israel is America, England, and France. America itself has a nuclear bomb, and Iran usually does not do anything without first thinking things through. That is, without having a nuclear bomb, [Iran would not have attacked Israel], since the other side might use its own nuclear weapon in the event of a war."
"There Is No Need To Inform The [International Atomic Energy] Agency That We Have A Nuclear Bomb"
"There is no need to inform the [International Atomic Energy] Agency that we have a nuclear bomb. On numerous occasions, Iran has said a few words [about this] and the IAEA took notice, while in other instances Iran itself announced that the IAEA would visit [Iranian nuclear facilities]. In an environment in which Russia attacks Ukraine and Israel attacks Gaza and Iran strongly supports the resistance axis, it is natural that the deterrence system requires Iran to have a nuclear bomb. But if Iran announces now [that it has a bomb], it's a different discussion.
"If the IAEA knows that Iran has a nuclear bomb, it will quickly announce this. But [right now], it is only hypothesizing about Iran's [nuclear] progress. That is, it is saying that Iran needs a little time to get close to [producing] a nuclear bomb, and that if Iran wants to build one, it would take, for example, two months.
"Regarding Iran's behavior vis-à-vis America and Israel, I feel that Iran has acquired a nuclear bomb, but is not announcing this. Are the IAEA inspectors taken to the place where Iran is building a nuclear bomb? Iran is a large country, with an area of 1.648 million square kilometers. Are we taking the IAEA to where the bomb is being built? No. We are telling the IAEA to visit specific centers [chosen by us], or the IAEA itself announces which centers it wants to visit.
"Now, too, I say these things as an expert and as an analyst, and I don't yet have an official position [that will cause them] to inspect the facilities because of what I've said. As an analyst, I am presenting this analysis about Iran's behavior as offense realism. That means that Iran can sleep [soundly] at night when it has a nuclear bomb, because Iran's enemy, Israel, has a nuclear bomb.
"If one day Iran doesn't want a nuclear bomb, that will be because its opponent, Israel, also doesn't have one.
"[Khamenei's] fatwa banning nuclear bombs constitutes an active approach. That is, we are not progressing in this issue to begin with, and there is no room for a nuclear bomb in our defense policy, but occasionally you need to shift from being passive to being active. Indeed, the Leader's fatwa includes Iranian activism – but once your opponent in the region [Israel] has a nuclear bomb and is always harassing you, we shift from being active to responding. Iran's response to the issue of nuclear [weapons] is to possess it, since we want to sleep soundly.
"In its recent attack on Israel, Iran had to have backup, since Israel has a nuclear bomb. So we should also have a nuclear bomb if we want to launch 300 bombs at them. America and Israel know that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb. Maybe they don't know that it [already] has. But they know that Iran is capable of doing so, and that is why they continue to pressure Iran and to send IAEA inspectors to Iran. But again, this does not mean that Iran is granting these inspectors [access] to all of its facilities.
"The fact that several individuals, including Mr. Kharrazi, are talking about the possibility of changing our nuclear doctrine is a preliminary step before announcing that we have a nuclear bomb. In fact, we want to gradually make it known that we have achieved this doctrine, and we do not want to announce it all at once and frighten the world.
"We do not want to frighten Russia and China. At any rate, if Russia is our strategic ally, and if it discovers that we have a nuclear weapon, it must use its veto in the [UN] Security Council in our favor. But I do not think that Russia wants us to have a nuclear weapon. Iran is slowly making preparations to announce that it has a nuclear bomb.
"I do not think that this issue will have many ramifications for us in the international community. At any rate, Iran is popular in the region and in the world after its attack on Israel. When the war in Gaza is over, Iran will lift up its head, and I think it will resolve its problems with America and its relations with it, and even if they aren't strategic, they will become official.
"After it is announced that Iran has a nuclear bomb, whether or not the sanctions against us increase, I must say that we have [already] experienced all the types of sanctions. That is, there will be an uproar against us, but it will be no worse than Iran's attack on Israel [which inflicted zero casualties]. I hope that if Iran has attained a nuclear weapon, and that if the Security Council wants to issue a resolution against Iran, that the Russians will this time use their veto in Iran's favor – not like [in the Golestan Agreement of] 1814 and the [Turkmenchai Agreement of] 1828 [in which Russia laid claim to the Caucasus and Central Asia, taking it from the Persian Empire after the latter lost in a war], and not like all their past policies. Now, when we have a 20-year [military and trade] agreement with the Russians and a 25-year [cooperation] program with the Chinese, they need to support us even here, so that no one denounces us.
"I believe that Iran becoming nuclear will gain gradual acceptance. As soon as you enter the nuclear club, they have to accept you. This deterrence [provided by possessing a nuclear bomb] makes the world realize that it respects Iran's role. Now, the wisdom of the masses in America understands that Iran cannot be ignored."[3]
[1] For a list of all MEMRI reports on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's nonexistent fatwa, see Appendix II: MEMRI Reports On The Nonexistent Nuclear Fatwa in MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1761, Senior Iranian Regime Officials Warn Of Iran's Coming Nuclear Breakout, April 25, 2024.
[2] That is, U.S. troops at Ayn Al-Asad airbase in Iraq in January 2020 after the U.S. killed IRGC Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike.
[3] Roydad 24 (Iran), May 5, 2024.
