Lebanese Columnist: Hizbullah Must Climb Down From Its Tree And Stop The War

Against the backdrop of the recent escalation between Israel and Hizbullah, and Israel's heavy blows against Hizbullah operatives,[1] there have been calls across Lebanon for Hizbullah to cease its attacks against Israel – which have been an expression of solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. This is in order to prevent further escalation of the conflict and an all-out war that would exact a heavy toll on Lebanon.

Hizbullah fighters. Source: An-Nahar; (Lebanon), December 25, 2023.

For instance, in two articles in the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar, Lebanese journalist Ali Hamadeh, known for his anti-Hizbullah positions, called on the organization to stop its war against Israel in order to prevent the outbreak of further hostilities that will prove catastrophic for Lebanon. Israel's recent operations against Hizbullah, he wrote, were a "tragedy" for Hizbullah, and prove that it has made an "historic" mistake by "recklessly" launching a war against Israel in its bid to assist the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip, against the will of most Lebanese and contrary to the country's interests. Hamadeh called on Hizbullah to act humbly and to understand that it can neither withstand a prolonged war against Israel nor defeat it. He went on to explain that the threat posed by Israel to Hizbullah is a result of the central role the latter plays in Iran's regional project, and that the U.S. and the West also see Hizbullah as a threat to their interests and thus will not prevent war against it.

It should be noted that since Hizbullah first attacked Israel on October 8, 2023, Hamadeh has published many articles criticizing its decision to do so and warning that this would lead to catastrophic results for Lebanon.[2]

This Is Not Lebanon's War; Solidarity With Gaza Does Not Mean We Need To Bring Lebanon To The Edge Of The Abyss – September 19, 2024

In an article published September 19, 2024, after the detonation of pagers and communications devices belonging to Hizbullah operatives, Hamadeh wrote:

"The pager attack was one of the greatest attacks carried out against Hizbullah by Israel over the past four decades. This is an attack that is more than painful – it is a tragedy that has befallen the organization in all dimensions: security, military, organizational, and social. Hence, Hizbullah's options should be closely examined... A year of war 'in support [of Hamas in Gaza]'[3] has brought ruin upon the organization, after it has lost more than 500 operatives, field commanders, and principal commanders in a war that has at the very least exhausted the organization and its surroundings.

"More importantly, [the war] has exhausted the country and caused cracks in Lebanon's social fabric, leading to an increase in calls from most of the other elements [of Lebanese society] for Lebanon to be separated from Hizbullah, and for people to settle for a Lebanon in which that party is not a ruling party, as it is today...

"The 'pager massacre' is a painful tragedy in the human dimension, and it requires us to boldly and openly tell [Hizbullah] that the time has come to exit this absurd war that it joined against the will of all Lebanese, including those who pander to Hizbullah. This is not Lebanon's war. Solidarity with Gaza and with the factions fighting there does not mean that we need to bring Lebanon to the brink of the abyss, for over a year... The destruction of the villages and towns in the south [of Lebanon], the killing of hundreds of fighters and those who were in their proximity during Israeli strikes, the 140,000 and more residents uprooted from their homes, and last but not least the thousands wounded in the pager explosion operation throughout Lebanon and even in Syria – all these lead us to the conclusion that we have two options. We either climb down from the tree and close the matter of this futile war, or we continue to endanger the lives of those who support the organization and of others.

"Hizbullah has several options: to respond with force in a fashion commensurate with the pager attack, leading to rapid deterioration into widescale war against Israel, or to settle for a revenge [operation] as it did after the assassination of its military commander Fuad Shukr, deepening its moral crisis vis-à-vis its base of support and the other Lebanese groups that are furious about its unilateral decision to enter the war... The third option is to not respond to the operation and to acknowledge that it has suffered a clear moral and military defeat... All these options are difficult and complex...

"Contrary to what the propaganda machine of the resistance axis has been spreading, for the first time in decades, the Israelis want war, and are pursuing it, to settle an old score with the Iranians and with their proxy in Lebanon – that is, Hizbullah. Its fundamental consideration is that after the [Hamas attack] Al-Aqsa Flood [on October 7, 2023], it will not be able to take the risk with the presence of 100,000 missiles and a military force of tens of thousands of fighters [on its northern border];;;"[4]

Israel Can Crush Hizbullah And The West Has An Interest In Restraining It – September 20, 2024

In a September 20, 2024 article, Hamadeh warned Hizbullah that it would not be able to withstand a widescale and prolonged war against Israel, and called the organization's decision to enter the war against Israel an "historic mistake":

"There is no room for comparison between the capabilities of Israel and of Hizbullah. Hizbullah can inflict great damage on Israel, but Israel has the ability and power to crush Iran's proxy in Lebanon. In other words, Hizbullah has, for a long time, been unable to create the equation in which it can confront Israel in low-intensity conflict. This is because the number and quality of its missiles – whether they are old or advanced – is insufficient to prevent Israel from winning a widescale war in which it can use precision weapons with great destructive capacity, such as MK-81, -82, -83, and -84 bombs, and so on.

"If Hizbullah and Iran, which stands behind it, are gambling that Israel cannot wage long wars, all we need to do is to look at the war in Gaza and the wars of attrition against Hizbullah and the 'unification of the fronts' [i.e. resistance] axis, which so far have gone on for a year. After the Al-Aqsa Flood, Israel's wars became existential…

"It appears that Hizbullah made an historic mistake by deciding on its own to launch a war of attrition against Israel, under the slogan 'the war of support.' Hizbullah wanted the war to be limited and not deteriorate into widescale war. It attempted to control the nature of the conflict and its limitations. But the considerations have changed, and the stronger side [i.e. Israel] has retaken control of the conflict, becoming the side that decides whether there will be calm or escalation. This is the root of the great problem faced by this party [Hizbullah] that is in crisis, which over the past two days has experienced a new type of warfare that requires no missiles or suicide drones. It is now the side that waits for the other side to determine the type and scope of the conflict.

"Despite this, Hizbullah is refusing to walk back its reckless decision to participate in the war of 'support' – thus exposing its supporters, ergo, all of Lebanon, to greater risk. The pager operation, followed by the [following day's] communication device [explosions], reflect the severity of the situation. After the U.S. abandoned the possibility of persuading Hizbullah to end the 'war of support' and of formulating an official Lebanese stance that could exert pressure on Hizbullah, it will not prevent a widescale Israeli war against Hizbullah in Lebanon...

"This [Iranian] proxy [i.e. Hizbullah] also endangers American interests. The West, led by America and Israel...will not allow Iran's proxies to retain military and security capabilities that not [even] medium-sized countries possess. Hence, Hizbullah's greatest enemy is how large it has become and the role that it has been playing as the spearhead of the Iranian project in the region. It cannot maintain its size and its role without causing apprehension that extends beyond Lebanon and affects the region, and perhaps also the international community...

"Hizbullah must understand that the war we are talking about will not be like to the war [it fought alongside the Syrian regime] in Syria. In Syria, it achieved a certain degree of victory after Russia, with American consent, intervened using all means available to it and without oversight of the 'details' relevant to the humanitarian aspect. Thus, this organization [i.e. Hizbullah] must act humbly, since the current challenge is not a conflict against a handful of shortsighted Lebanese leaders, but rather against superpowers and regional forces that have a shared interest of putting an end to a phenomenon that belongs in the past."[5]