Putin Increases Number Of Russian Military Personnel To 2.2 Million, Says Number Of Volunteers Is Growing

On December 1, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin passed a decree raising the number of military personnel in the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) to 2.2 million, including 1.32 million troops.[1] The decree, which takes force immediately, would increase the number of troops by nearly 170,000, bringing the total number of military personnel to two million, including 1.5 million troops. The Kremlin stated that the increase will happen gradually, by recruiting more volunteers. It is the second expansion of the army since 2018.

Even in 2019, Putin promised to cancel general conscription for the RAF and move toward a contract army.[2] Indeed, the number of contract servicemen in Russian army was growing.

It should be also noted that general conscription, held twice a year, is a point of discontent for Russians. Despite the authority's efforts, the number of respondents aged 18-24 who perceived military service as an appropriate, encouraged activity for a "true man" was decreasing. As of December 2022, only 31% of the respondents agreed with the sentiment.[3]

A Telegram channel shared an RAF recruiting video posted in April 2022 on the official Telegram channel of the Russian Ministry of Defense.[4] The caption on the video reads: "You are a man after all, so act like one." The post itself reads, "Test yourself! Sign a contract with the RAF!"

After the start of the war with Ukraine in February 2022, a "partial mobilization" was launched. The results were rather poor (and even prompted a wave of emigration from Russia). It might have been evidence of the true sentiments of the Russians toward military service, or toward what the Kremlin calls the "special operation" in Ukraine. In addition, military recruitment offices are notoriously corrupt, with many young Russians of recruitment age trying to buy "otkos [the right to evade service, usually via simulation of disease]." The corruption of military recruitment offices and of military-medical commissions accounts for billions of rubles.[5][WL2] The hostilities in Ukraine lead to a skyrocketing growth of the number of people evading the army's recruitment call.[6]

As of 2016-2017, the trend of decreasing troop numbers has reversed: Vladimir Putin began to increase the number of servicemen. The two most recent changes occurred in August 2022 and, most recently, in December 2023. In 2022, the RAF strength increased by 137,000 men (7.2% – from 1,902,758 to 2,039,758 men, with the number of actual servicemen growing by 12.5% – from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 men) and in the latter case, by 169,372 men (8.3% – from 2,039,758 to 2,209,130 people, with the number of overall military personnel growing by 14.7% – from 1,150,628 to 1,320,000 men[WL3] ). It could be argued that these two decrees reflect the change in manpower after the partial mobilization, as well as recruitment efforts and losses from the actual hostilities, including not only casualties, but also people who evaded active service by defecting, or other means such as self-harm, deserting the military unit, etc.

Conscripted RAF servicemen. (Source: Mikhail Golenkov / RIA Novosti)

The authorities claim that during the partial mobilization of 2022, about 300,000 men were recruited into service. It seems that what the Kremlin calls the "special operation" in Ukraine has had a negative effect on recruitment. Putin announced on December 8 that he would run for another term as president, which would keep him in office until 2030 at least. On December 7, the Russian parliament voted that the election would be held on March 17, with the victor inaugurated in May. Given the upcoming election, the Kremlin is wary of declaring another round of conscription and is increasing its efforts to attract volunteers. In November 2023, according to news reports, about 150,000 men signed military contracts. Putin himself celebrated the results,[7] saying: "Since January of this year... we have managed now, at this point in time, to recruit over 150,000, and together with volunteers – 156,000 people. And our mobilization accounted for 300,000, as we remember. And now people come voluntarily, of their own free will. In fact, this work started in February [2023] – 156,000 people... And this work continues: 9,500 people signed contracts just last week." The total of all conscripted should be about 450,000 servicemen. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medveded supported the claim, saying there were 452,000 men as of December 1, 2023.[8]

There seems to be a discrepancy in such claimed numbers. The 2022 decree, passed after the partial mobilization, required an increase of 137,000 volunteers (against 300,000 conscripted servicemen), and the 2023 decree required 169,000 new volunteers (against a claimed 150,000 contract servicemen earlier in November). However, according to the Ministry of Defense, the latest increase of the number of servicemen will be conducted in stages: "The increase in the number of servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is being conducted in stages, by attracting citizens willing to perform military service under contract. Thus, there are no plans for a significant increase in the conscription of citizens for fixed-term military service. Mobilization is not planned."[9]

Despite these words, the numbers of military personnel seem to be rising. The total increase under the presidential decrees account for roughly 306,000 more servicemen (with a second group still being recruited), while the Kremlin claims 452,000 who have already joined the service by signing contracts. Putin reassures citizens that there is no need for another mobilization. However, the discrepancy between public claims and decrees accounts for roughly 150,000 men, and maybe more.

It is hard to argue with certainty what such a discrepancy proves. It may be a sign of an ineffective or corrupt military bureaucracy (whose numbers lag behind the real state of affairs in the field.) However, it makes more sense to virtually increase number of servicemen on paper (as opposed to the actual number in the field) in order to secure bigger budget allowances. The discrepancy may also evidence heavy casulties suffered by Russian troops in 2022–2023. Finally, it may also be a sign of disingenuous claims on part of the authorities, trying to reassure Russians that for now, at least, there is no danger of a general, mandatory draft.