In an August 2, 2010 article in the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida, Qatari liberal Dr. 'Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari stated that the recent escalation of tension and violence in the Middle East, and especially in Lebanon, is directly linked to the increasing sanctions against Iran. He said that Iran foments unrest in the region by means of terrorist organizations allied with it, such as Hizbullah, in order to use the resulting violence as leverage in its nuclear negotiations with the West. This, he said, is the real reason behind Hizbullah's attacks on the International Tribunal for Lebanon, and behind Hizbullah's stockpiling of arms to use against Israel.
Following are excerpts from the article:
To view the MEMRI page for Dr. 'Abd Al-Hamid Al-Ansari, visit http://www.memri.org/subject/en/129.htm?nladksfn.
The European Sanctions Cripple Iran Considerably
"What is the connection between [the following]: The recent escalation [in the belligerence of] Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, [reflected] in a series of clamorous speeches, in accusations of treason hurled [in every direction], and in his veiled threats; the renewal of clashes in Yemen between the Houthis and the tribes loyal to the government, [which have resulted in] dozens of fatalities and hostage-takings, now that the Houthis have acquired tanks; the recent bombing of a Japanese supertanker in the Hormuz Straits on its way to the port of Al-Fujairah; the difficulties and entanglements in Iraq, which have delayed the formation of a new government for many months since the elections; and the growing strength of the Somali [jihad group] Al-Shabab Al-Mujahideen, as well as the defection of soldiers from the guard of [Somali] president Sharif Sheikh Ahmad to join [the ranks of Al-Shabab].
"The answer to this long question has to do with the implications of Iran's nuclear [program] and of the new sanctions that Europe has imposed on Iran, in addition to the U.S. sanctions. The [current European and American] sanctions are the toughest ever imposed on this country [as punishment] for its nuclear program, and they may paralyze it and eliminate its ability to act and maneuver in the world economy. The European sanctions, which were endorsed also by Canada and Australia, strike at the very heart of Iranian economy, because they target the two sectors of energy and banking. Despite Iran's pretense that the sanctions are without impact and are destined to fail, reality proves that the opposite is true..."
"Iran Continues to Delude Itself that the More it Escalates and Heats Up [the Conflicts in] the Region … the Stronger will be [Its Position] in the Negotiations over Its Nuclear Program"
"No analyst can fail to make a connection between the escalation and concerns in the region and the international sanctions on Iran...
"[Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad was enraged with Russia when its president, Dmitry Medvedev publicly stated, which he rarely does, that Iran may [soon] be manufacturing nuclear weapons. According to an expert on Iran at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, most of the sectors targeted by the [current] European sanctions are those in which the Europeans have considerable power... The European Union is serious this time in imposing its sanctions – yet Iran continues to delude itself that the more it escalates and heats up [the conflicts in] the region, and the more it provides the warring factions with weapons and funds, the stronger will be [its position] in the negotiations over its nuclear program.
Hizbullah Fears the Findings of the Investigation into Al-Hariri's Assassination
"The atmosphere in the region is explosive, especially in Lebanon... A political advisor to the Lebanese President explicitly warned that Lebanon is facing a real and imminent danger... in light of the indictment soon to be issued by the international tribunal [for the Al-Hariri assassination]. The greatest [source of] concern and tension is Hizbullah, whose secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, has given two warning speeches in three days.
"[Nasrallah's] fears are anchored in two factors: first, the [aforementioned] indictment, due to be issued in September... [Hizbullah] believes that [the tribunal may order] to arrest some of its members that do not obey [the organization's] authority. Nothing has yet been published, and there is certainly no information implicating the organization – except for a single leak [published] by the German weekly Der Spiegel, which alleged that there is very solid evidence indicating the organization's involvement in the assassination. Nevertheless, [Hizbullah] has been issuing threats, warnings and accusations of treason, and its secretary-general said that 'the tribunal's indictment was written before the investigation even started...' and that [the tribunal] 'means to punish Hizbullah's fighters while exonerating Syria.' In his second speech, Nasrallah said [in a similar vein]: 'They will put the blame on us.' [Hizbullah's] anxiety reached such levels that its former secretary-general, Subhi Al-Tufaili, called on [Lebanese Prime Minister] Sa'd Al-Hariri to take 'a moderate stand' on the tribunal's supposed indictment, and warned, 'The issuing of [this] indictment will plunge Lebanon into a dark tunnel, and nobody... knows how and when [Lebanon] will emerge from it...'
Lebanon Will Pay the Price of Hizbullah's War
"What is the meaning of this suspicious attitude towards the international tribunal, before it has even published the findings of its [investigation]?... Some have [argued that Hizbullah's behavior reflects its guilt]... However, the organization's growing [belligerence] towards the tribunal at this time is more likely to be linked to the fate of the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and to the new sanctions that have been imposed on Iran. This [assumption] is confirmed by a statement [recently] made by Hizbullah political bureau member Mahmoud Qamati, who said that if the nuclear negotiations with Iran yield positive results and lead to an agreement, the issue of the international tribunal will once again sink into oblivion.
"The second cause [of Nasrallah's concerns is] the increasing talk about the weapons flowing to Hizbullah, and Israel's claim that it has documented [proof] that Hizbullah has stockpiled 40,000 missiles in southern Lebanon since the end of the [2006] war. On the fourth anniversary of the war, the Israeli military revealed this documentation, and stressed that Hizbullah means to use civilians as human shields. The head of Israel's Northern Command threatened that the Israeli army would respond to this kind of war with all its might, and target the enemy's bases [even if they are located] in residential areas. In other words, [such a war] will result in many civilian casualties. At a press conference, [he] presented a video showing [Hizbullah's] preparations for war, and its turning of 160 Lebanese villages into military posts.
"Recently, just before his visit to the United States, Israeli Foreign Minister Ehud Barak declared that should Hizbullah fire missiles at Tel Aviv, the Israeli authorities would target Lebanon's government institutions. In other words, Israel does not regard Hizbullah or the persons firing the missiles as the only ones responsible, but also holds the Lebanese government responsible [for attacks on Israel]. He added that [in the next confrontation], 'things will be different than they were in 2006. Back then, the U.S. Secretary of State asked us not to touch the Al-Siniora government, and we complied.'
Why Does Hizbullah Need Such an Amount of Weapons?
"Regardless of whether the reports [about Hizbullah's arms] are true or not, we ask ourselves, why this disdain for human life? Why do armed religious organizations [like Hizbullah] hold human life so cheap? Everywhere, [these] terrorist groups kill innocent people, and do not even shrink away from killing worshippers in mosques. These groups that politicize religion do not consider even the lives of civilians [sacred], and expose them to the dangers of war. Previously, Hamas exposed the residents [of Gaza] to the brutality of an Israeli attack, caring nothing for their lives. Hizbullah, too, in its reckless escapades, ascribed no value to the lives of Lebanese. How cheap is the blood of the Arab and the Muslim!
"... [Hizbullah] is stockpiling arms in the basements of mosques, hospitals, residential buildings, and factories for baby formula, considering this to be a legitimate way to deceive the enemy, and not giving a thought to the fate of the children, women and [other] civilians that may be exposed to danger...
"The question arises, why does this organization need such an amount of weapons? It does not need them to control Lebanon, so we can only conclude that this [too] is linked to the issue of the Iranian nuclear [program] and Iran's desire to confront Israel. In other words, this is Iran's will [at work], not Lebanon's. Will [Hizbullah] go on another escapade and put Lebanon in danger?..."
