The renowned blogger Anatoly Nesmiyan (aka "El-Murid) marks the half year anniversary of Putin's special military operation. He continues to predict that it will end in calamitous failure. The regime's contention that it is fighting not only Ukraine but its Western backers is true but it is a given, and the regime should have realized the disparity of resources between Russia and the West. While the resource factor is important, Russia's main problem is leadership incompetence, because the top officials are chosen on the basis of loyalty to the leader. Therefore, it will not help if the regime acceded to calls to institute full mobilization and move to a war economy. Handling a crisis or a catastrophe requires management skills that the top leadership lacks.
Nesmiyan's post follows below:[1]
Anatoly Nesmiyan (Source: Nastroy.net)
"In the course of life's first year, the happy parents celebrate each month of the child's life. Then, after the first anniversary, birthdays are counted as they should be - according to every passing year. With a special operation, the story is the same: for now, we record every 24th day of each month. Then it won't matter.
"Six months of hostilities are in the past. It is not known how many lie ahead, but it seems that it can hardly be less. Strictly speaking, a special operation is when a special forces group breaks into a building, clears the area and disappears into the quiet night. The well-known beginning of the Afghan events of 79 began precisely with a special operation, when such a group entered [Hafizullah] Amin's palace and solved the set task. When a difficult history of many months following the plot of the First World War or various Seven- and Thirty-Year Wars is called a special operation, it does not look very convincing, although it is backed up by ferocious fines and imprisonments.
"The fighting assumed a protracted attrition format. This is already a completely obvious fact that cannot be explained otherwise, and it’s even impossible to feed the completely emission bruised [broadcasting] towers assurances that everything is going according to plan.
"It is pointless to argue that in such a struggle it is necessary to compare not Russia and Ukraine's capabilities, but the capabilities of Russia and Ukraine+. Yes, of course, without external assistance, Kyiv will not survive - but the help exists, and this is a given. But in this format, the competition between the economies of Russia and the coalition opposing it looks absolutely straightforward: the [Russian] economy, bled dry by the regime, will not be able to withstand a protracted conflict.
"Of course, there are moves via which the agony can be prolonged, but it's still agony.
"However, in my opinion, the critical problem for the Kremlin regime is not the resource factor (it is, of course, the determining one, and even under all other equal circumstances, it will sooner or later lead to defeat). The issue is management. In a slightly jocular fashion (although it is not a joke) this problem was voiced a long time ago: they recruited the loyalists, but they question them as if they were intelligent people. Loyalty and a willingness to lick the leader's boots are completely not the equivalent of management ability. However, in a personalized dictatorship, there is no other personnel selection mechanism, save through loyalty. Professional qualities are a secondary trait in relation to it. In no other personnel selection system can the characters, who today flicker on the screens and in the media reports, be in the highest positions. [They are] incompetent, failures in everything that is possible, pompous and worthless - but demonstrate selfless loyalty.
"A rhetorical question - are such people capable of managing in a crisis or even a catastrophic situation? Of course not. Actually, they also created all these crises together with the supreme leader. I confess that I will never understand how can those people solve the problems that they themselves created by their tireless activity to destroy the country.
"Therefore, I tend to think that we will have the next six months of conflict ahead of us, and after them – the following [six months]. [It will go on] until it all comes crashing down, either by virtue of a failed and mediocre management, or the resource factor will play a role, or [perhaps] a combination of both. Any steps via which, they may attempt to prolong the agony and convulsions will only prolong them, but at the same time, will further worsen the situation.
"At the same time, it must be understood that the regime is incapable and unable to manage any projects. Any significant decision is a project. Even if they decide to conduct mobilization (which the ultra-patriotic public is clamoring for), they will botch this and create in its place one more insoluble problem to add to all the existing ones. Although, of course, a certain number of people will be thrown into the meat grinder. Mobilize industry? They likewise don't know how to do it. And should they try, they will add a few more logs to the bonfire of blazing catastrophe. And [they will add] not wooden [logs], but RDX [explosive ones] immediately with detonators.
"And here is the lowdown: Sooner or later this crap will explode - there is simply no doubt. The only question is when. No model can answer this question. If only because there are more variables in this system of equations than the equations themselves. Much more. Therefore, in a strict sense, it is impossible to solve such a system. But the answer is nevertheless known and comprehensible, the only thing is not to deceive ourselves."
[1] El-murid.livejournal.com, August 23, 2022.
