Russian Expert Yevgeny Satanovsky: 'The War In Syria Has Been Unambiguously Won Not Just By Local Islamists, But By Turkey And Its Ally – The Emirate Of Qatar'

On December 24, 2024, Russian expert Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Russian think tank Institute of the Middle East, wrote an analysis in the Russian journal "Russia In Global Politics" about the situation in Syria. Satanovsky stated that the war in Syria has been "unambiguously won not just by the local Islamists, but by Turkey and its ally – the Emirate of Qatar." He then added: "As for the possibility of maintaining the Alawite autonomy in Latakia with Russia's help... do not get your hopes up."

Satanovsky also recalled that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mentioned that if the situation had developed differently after WWI, Damascus, Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Raqqa would have been Turkish vilayets. Erdoğan expressed several times this "wishful thinking" in relations to the " Misak-ı Millî [National Oath]" adopted in the last session of the Ottoman Parliament in 1920.[1]

In 2016, the Turkish daily Hurriyet explained: "The National Oath also retraced the specific geographical borders of the future independent Turkish land. This map was drawn according to the direct influence zone of the defeated Ottoman state, encompassing the actual political borders of the Turkish Republic, but also provinces such as Kirkuk, Thessaloniki, Aleppo and Mosul. One could say that Turkey's military presence in northern Syria and now its willingness to join the coalition forces engaged in the Mosul operation both result from a revival of the National Oath. As the Middle East is reshaping itself once again, after a tumultuous century full of coups, assassinations and wars, Turkey once again aims to expand its influence in ancient and strategically important Ottoman provinces such as Aleppo and Mosul... The Republic of Turkey will either broaden its influence or lose it completely. That is why Mosul and Aleppo are critical, and that is also why President Erdoğan's historical references to the National Oath are vital."[2]

It is worth noting that anti-liberal Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, while commenting on the situation in Syria and the overthrown of the Assad regime, stated: "The fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime is undoubtedly a blow to us. It seems the globalists timed their operation in Syria carefully, drawing Turkey and other regional actors – such as Qatar and various Islamic states – into the conflict to exploit the situation. Their intent was to 'demonstrate our weakness'." He then added: "This is not our weakness, and they did not achieve their ultimate goal. However, the fall of a friendly regime into which we invested significantly cannot be considered inconsequential or positive. It is a sorrowful event and a disappointing outcome of the past year."[3]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (Source: Al Jazeera).

Below are excerpts of Satanovsky's article:[4]

"Erdoğan Mentioned That If The Situation Had Developed Differently After WWI, Damascus, Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, And Raqqa Would Have Been Turkish Vilayets"

"It is no coincidence that Erdoğan mentioned that if the situation had developed differently after WWI, Damascus, Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Raqqa would have been Turkish vilayets. Wherein, according to the concept of the Turkic world, successfully promoted by the Organization of Turkic States, Iraqi Mosul, and many other settlements on the territory of present-day Russia and Ukraine, including the entire Black Sea region, the Azov region and, of course, Crimea and the North Caucasus would have been Turkish vilayets too.

"Erdoğan has already dealt with the Transcaucasia issues by winning the Second Karabakh War and concluding the 'Shusha Agreement' with Baku,[5] which realizes in practice the principle of 'One Nation – Two States.' The issue of establishing a unified supranational system between Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia, implementing the theories of the Young Turks and the practice of Enver Pasha, [Erdoğan] successfully solves through the Organization of Turkic States.

"In turn, Russia's [border] on the maps in Turkish school textbooks extends only up to the Volga region, while everything else, from Tatarstan and the Urals to Yakutia and Altai [is dubbed] 'unrecognized Turkic statehood.'

Nonetheless, for Turkish right-wing nationalists from the party of [Erdoğan's] coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli (MHP),[6] Yamal, Chukotka, Kamchatka as well as Primorye along with Sakhalin are also ancestral Turkic lands. Ultimately, these lands have large reserves of gas, oil, and much more. This is quite in line with American plans to weaken and dismember Russia – after all Turkey is a NATO member-state.

"The author [of this article] does not rule out that in the period BEFORE the joint creation with Russia of a gas hub on the Turkish territory (which, most likely, will be commissioned in 2025-2026) the Turkish leader will be usually 'constructive' on the issue of [Russian military] bases in Tartus and Hmeimim, as he was on the issue of Moscow constructing the Akkuyu NPP (at Russian expense, mind you), the purchase of S-400 from us [the Kremlin], signing of the 'grain deal,'[7] the 'Istanbul agreements'[8] and much more. [Erdoğan] understands perfectly well that it is difficult and expensive to restructure the logistics of the Russian projects in Africa and the Middle East, wherein he knows like no other how to barter from us what he needs now (with the prospect of turning the situation in his favour at any convenient moment). Especially since it is more than logical for the Turks to trade these bases to the Americans for their support of the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds, and simply to tease Washington once again.

"But who says that Erdoğan, no matter what would be agreed upon with us [Moscow], intends to come true on his promises and adhere to the framework any given agreements? At the 'Astana process,'[9] he was fully in accord with [the Kremlin] and the Iranians on everything, and his conditions for not eliminating the Islamists under his control in Aleppo and for allowing their relocation to Idlib (while leaving them armed) were fully met. And these days there are no more Iranians in Syria, the Iranian Embassy has been looted and vandalized, the Russian military presence has exhausted itself and is being curbed for lack of any prospects in a situation where the Syrian army per se no longer exists; whereas the Turks, as Erdoğan promised, have held namaz [the five-times-daily prayers in Islam] in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. This gesture was nothing more but symbolic, but it was significant for the East, just as the victory parade [Erdoğan] and Aliyev held in Baku after the defeat of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, which marked the beginning of the end of Russia's military presence in Transcaucasia (one should not be deceived by Armenia's participation in the CSTO and the presence of a [Russian] military base in the Armenian city of Gyumri).

"Then [Erdoğan] will say his favorite phrase: 'Yesterday was yesterday, and today is now,' and what will we reply? – The phrase that became familiar thanks to the widest range of agreements and treaties, to NATO's guarantees of non-proliferation to the East, to the Minsk Agreements and the Normandy Format: 'Have we [really] been deceived?'[10] Oh, well. Today, the war in Syria has been unambiguously won not just by the local Islamists, but by Turkey and its ally – the Emirate of Qatar. As for the possibility of maintaining the Alawite autonomy in Latakia with Russia's help... do not get your hopes up. As for today there are no signs that the Alawites are capable of resisting the radical Sunni Islamists, for whom they are, undoubtedly, nothing more than unbelievers to be physically destroyed, its similar to ISIS militants killing and enslaving the Yazidi Kurds in Iraq."