In an article titled "Red Line of Indistinct Color" the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov criticized the recent Russian ambiguity regarding the use of nuclear weapons. In January Russia joined the other nuclear powers in upholding the principle that the use of nuclear weapons was inadmissible. However, Russian officialdom all the way up to Vladimir Putin has hinted that nuclear weapons were not off the table in Ukraine. Kortunov hopes that Russia is not serious about using nuclear weapons and sees the mobilization as a signal that Russia intends to turn the tide with conventional weapons alone.
Russia must make explicit what red line must be crossed – say direct NATO involvement in the war – before Russia contemplates the use of nuclear weapons. Kortunov is doubtful of the efficacy of tactical nuclear weapons. As Russian officials constantly emphasizes that we are now in a multipolar world, where the US cannot dictate, Kortunov warns that the use of nuclear weapons will make Russia an international pariah, on whom all the “poles” of the multipolar world will turn their backs.
Kortunov's article follows below:[1]
Andrey Kortunov (Source: Dialogorg.ru)
The RIAC Director General, Andrey Kortunov on the threat of direct confrontation between the leading nuclear powers
On the one hand, Russia lets it be understood that adherence to the postulate that in a nuclear war there can be no winners in a nuclear war and that it must never be unleashed is preserved. This thesis found expression in the January statement of the leaders of the five leading nuclear powers. In the statement there was also mention of the need to prevent war between states possessing nuclear arms, and to reduce strategic risks.
On the other hand, Russian ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, commenting on the new US military aid package to Kyiv, explicitly stated that such actions consolidate the US' status as a party to the conflict. Konstantin Vorontsov, The Deputy Head of the Russian delegation to the UN, added that as of today brinksmanship is already taking place on the threshold of a direct armed conflict, “which threatens further exacerbation, down to a military clash of nuclear powers with the ensuing dire consequences.
And ultimately, the President and Commander-in-Chief, Vladimir Putin himself warned not long ago, "Upon a threat to our country's territorial integrity, we will, undoubtedly, use all means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff."
Many analysts were quick to construe this statement as a transparent hint to the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear arms directly on the battlefield.
Evidently, German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz had exactly this very same possibility in mind, when he exclaimed, “Following US President Joe Biden, I say to Russia: "Don’t do it!"
Meanwhile, the Russian leadership’s decision regarding the partial mobilization can be perceived as a refusal to deploy tactical nuclear arms directly against the Ukrainian Armed Forces [the ZSU]. Provided the scenario of nuclear escalation was, in fact, being considered, there would be little need for launching partial mobilization. Apparently, Moscow hopes that the mobilization will make it possible to achieve a breakthrough in the SVO via conventional weapons.
Provided this the case, it’s necessary to audibly and unambiguously define what level and format of Western support for Ukraine, Russia would perceive as the crossing of a “red line.” Most likely, it would be the West’s direct involvement in the conflict. After all, its support is already playing a decisive role in Kyiv's military successes.
In the current situation the utmost clarity is needed, not uncertainty. As on the sign, “Do not enter! It can kill [you].” [warning signs on high-voltage transmission lines]
According to Kortunov the nuclear warning should be as clear and explicit as the warning on a transmission line (Image: Nngroup.ru)
Finally, and most importantly: it should be understood that the use of tactical nuclear arms doesn’t guarantee a turnabout in the war in one's favor: the military effectiveness [of tactical nuclear strikes] is not obvious.
However, what it does guarantee is the risk of a full-scale nuclear war, total “strategic isolation,” and the status of an international pariah, on whom all the “poles” of the multipolar world will turn their backs.
[1] Kommersant.ru, October 7, 2022.
