Russian nationalist Yuri Aptukhin can get away with a great deal. Perhaps he receives allowances because he is 75 years old, or perhaps because he sat in a Ukrainian jail for pro-Russian separatist activities in Kharkiv and was released in a prisoner exchange with Russia. Aptukhin's thesis is that Russia cannot win in Ukraine, because its efforts are being sabotaged by part of the ruling elite, who are willing to push for a quick ceasefire and surrender to the West where they have stashed much of their looted assets. Aptukhin names some of these "traitors" and they include Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Accounts Chamber head Alexei Kudrin and Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina. He collectively refers to this part of the ruling class as compradors – the term used for Chinese agents of foreign firms, who worked against their own country's interests.
Putin, the military and the security services are patriotic and are willing to achieve total victory in Ukraine, but they are held in check by the elite fifth columnists. He is wary of destroying the comprador elite, because they have convinced him that it could lead to a breakdown of governance. However, Putin will soon be forced into a choice, because on the one hand the pro-Western elite threatens a revolt, and on the other hand the people will not be fobbed off by a conquest of Donbass, but will insist on total victory to justify the sacrifices. Then, Aptukhin believes a complete purge of the old elite will be the result.
Aptukhin's article follows below:[1]
Yuri Aptukhin (Source: Bitva.wiki)
"The goals of the special military operation [hereafter - SVO] are gradually being implemented, yet somewhat inconsistently and tentatively, [our statesmen] are all the time checking the reactions of the “Western partners,” avoiding taking decisive measures regarding the strikes at decision-making centers and the enemy’s logistical communications have not broken down.
"During the course of the operation's conduct, save for the 'Mariupol pocket,' not a single encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ZSU was achieved (although it was possible to organize five pockets), the ZSU are being squeezed out of the positions they occupy, preserve their forces and retreat to the previously prepared lines, where they continue to resist. There has been no strategic breakthrough in the SVO; the enemy hasn’t lost heart and is even planning a 'counteroffensive' on the southern front.
"Many ask why this has happened and what is restraining the Russian military and political leadership from adopting a decision on the ZSU’s defeat and aggravating relations with the West, without whose help, Ukraine would have long been finished.
"Of all the factors influencing this position, I would like to dwell on one: the Russian ruling class’s sentiments towards the SVO and their interests in realizing (or not realizing) the SVO's objectives.
"The Consensual Nature Of The Russian Elite
"It’s no secret to anyone that the [Russian] ruling class, who came to power on the 'privatization' wave of the 1990s, as well as the bureaucracy and intelligentsia serving them (who pursue a policy of surrendering state interests and supporting Russia’s integration into the Western community), have largely maintained their positions in the power structures and are trying to realize their clan interests. For them, Russia is just 'this country,' and it’s not a shame to use it to the fullest.
"True, there have been purges in this environment recently, some of them, such as [climate envoy Anatoly] Chubais and many former deputy prime ministers as well as top officials of state corporations, have already fled to the West, the ideologue of liberalism, [economist Vladimir] Mau is under arrest, but the pillars of Russian liberalism, such as [Sberbank Chairman Herman] Gref, [former finance minister Alexei] Kudrin, [Finance Minister Anton] Siluanov, and [Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira] Nabiullina remain in their places and continue their destructive activities.
Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina (Source: Ria.ru)
"For instance, the Accounts Chamber, headed by Kudrin, recently proposed writing off 330 billion frozen USD from the Sovereign Wealth Fund. Thanks to their help, we’ve lost our gold and foreign exchange reserves, and now they propose to forget about them and gift them to the West!
"There is another group in the ruling class, led by the president, which champions the Russian state's sovereignty and initiated the SVO.
"It should be noted that the president didn’t come to power on the basis of some powerful popular movement. He got in the office by accident, he was nominated by the then ruling elite and had they known to what it would lead, they would hardly have taken such a step.
"As a result, a consensual nature of power emerged among the ruling class, involving a balance between factional interests. An elite group of compradors, who stashed their looted assets in the West, a united pro-Western elite group with its entire expert, propaganda and bureaucratic apparatus, is responsible for the economy, finance, foreign trade and relations with the West.
"An elite group of 'sovereignists,' led by the president and uniting the military, special services and statesmen, is responsible for Russia’s sovereignty and upholds the state's development independent of Western influence. Any attempt to violate the consensus threatens a revolt by the losing part of the elite.
"The elite clique of compradors acts as a 'fifth column' in power, deliberately working for the West and facilitating Russia’s defeat in the global confrontation. The second elite clique is for the moment, wary of persecuting them and removing them from the offices en masse, as it could lead to a collapse of governance and provoke uncontrollable processes upon the state's destruction. The compradors are being lightly 'thinned out' and their activity is curbed without taking decisive action against them.
"The latent confrontation between the two factions has lasted for quite some time and the covert split between them sharply intensified in 2014 over the Crimea and Donbass issue. The political system could no longer be in a state of consensual equilibrium. A decisive step was taken by the president, who announced the conduct of an SVO. It’s hard to tell who and how convinced the political and military leadership of the prospect of a blitzkrieg in Ukraine, and the quick replacement of the ruling regime; it was a mistake that led to the Istanbul talks.
"The emboldened compradors succeeded in humiliating Russia by agreeing to withdraw from all the occupied territories and make do with recognition of only Crimea and Donbass. But the US and England did not allow the deal to go ahead, and Russian society was categorically opposed, so the deal did not take place. The special operation has gone into a low-intensity mode, with no strategic victories, and the troops are slow in solving the tasks of liberating the territory.
"In the current situation, the compradors didn’t give up and convinced the president that Russian society is exhausted, that the [country’s] economy cannot withstand a long war with the West, and that a ceasefire, which will 'freeze' in the conflict, must be negotiated urgently. They try to demonstrate the danger of mobilization and centralized governance, that the people are tired and could move to disobedience, and that the army is ready to abandon the front and take up arms against the authorities. Their aim is to nudge the country towards a 'Minsk-3' [agreement] and surrender Russia over to the West.
"The 'sovereignists,' in contrast, insist on the need to continue the SVO until its victorious conclusion and the realization of the assigned objectives.
"The West, for its part, demonstrates its readiness for a long confrontation and convinces everyone that Russia got involved in a war totally unprepared, counting on the abortive blitzkrieg, and that it should now seek as soon as possible an exit from this hopelessly lost war.
"The confrontation between the two elite groups has escalated into a cold civil war of elites, and the answer of who will prevail, will determine the future of the Russian state as well as its level of involvement in the inevitable restructuring of the world. In fact, Russia’s sovereignty is at stake, i.e., it’s a question of whether it is capable of defending its identity and independent path of development, or whether it is ready to disappear as a civilization and dissolve in the Western community.
"The Imperative Of Russia's Sovereignty
"It should be emphasized that state sovereignty is an absolute value and, in addition to technological, military, economic and political sovereignty, it primarily implies the spiritual (conceptual) sovereignty of society, which reproduces a passionate [referencing to the pseudo-historical term, introduced by scientist, Lev Gumilov] elite capable of organizing a mental war against the enemy.
"The Soviet elite of the 1980s didn’t perceive sovereignty to be an absolute value and strived to integrate into Western civilization, while exposing the discrediting of the Soviet (Russian) one. The Russian elite of the 1990s made the destruction of Russia’s sovereignty, rather than its preservation its main task, and went a long way towards doing so. What’s more, in the practically colonial Constitution (which was adopted back then and still in force today) a ban on spiritual sovereignty was imposed (any ideology was banned) and Russian society was cut off from spiritual development.
"In the 2010s, Russian society (and only part of the elite) came to realize the vital need to restore sovereignty in the first place, but this did not become the prevailing idea. The special operation posed the question squarely - without comprehensive sovereignty, Russia as a state and civilization could not survive; a sovereign national elite was needed for an all-out battle with the West, which was not yet in place. A small elite group led by the president is now trying to implement a national sovereignty strategy, but without a dominant part of the ruling class, which has set out to resist Western expansion and develop its civilization, the attainment of spiritual sovereignty is impossible. This idea has already taken hold of the masses, but has not yet been embraced by the majority of the Russian elite.
"Russian society has progressed towards an understanding of the need to defend its sovereignty and assemble the historic Russian lands, however, the bulk of the ruling class, experts and officials are resisting and don’t want to become victors in the global battle with the West. The people literally carry them in their arms to the winners [circle], but they do not want this victory, resist and strive to escape. It’s high time for a total replacement of the old elite, but there is no counter-elite yet, there are only individual representatives with an alternative idea among the old elite.
"The two parts of the ruling class have different fates and different survival strategies. So, the intra-elite struggle will inevitably intensify, depending on the pace of the special operation's advance and the results achieved. The issue of a possible truce, for which the compradors are fighting so hard in the hope of achieving political destabilization with a subsequent economic downturn and a surge of protest activity, will become a matter of principle. They seek to create an atmosphere in which the country's sovereignty and society's mental values can be reformatted in the interests of the victorious West. This elite grouping senses its fragility and the people no longer view them as an elite.
"Meanwhile, the Russian leadership is sending signals to the West that it is not opposed to a ceasefire following the liberation of Donbass, despite the unpopularity of this idea among the masses. Apparently, an attempt at talks cannot be excluded, although in this case it will be necessary to forget the de-Nazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. Additionally, a political crisis would immediately begin in Russia, and there is no way to 'sell' a ceasefire to population, as a victory.
"In the current situation, the Russian sovereign elite finds itself between the possibility of a revolt by the compradors aimed at removing it from power and a revolt by the masses, after a lost victory [in the war with Ukraine] that will be perceived as having been stolen. The objectives of the SVO won’t be achieved and the sacrifices made will be in vain, while the compradors will be awarded a trump card for their revanche.
"In such a scenario, neither Russia, nor the West achieves their goals, and therefore there will be no peace in Ukraine to talk of. In order to attain victory, Russia needs to actually reformat the political system and purge the entire elite. Peace in Ukraine is possible only with an unconditional military victory of Russia, or the West, and the results of the SVO will determine not only the fate of Ukraine, but also that of Russia and of the future world order."
[1] Topwar.ru, August 3, 2022.
