Russian Political Columnist: China Is A 'Good Friend, But A Difficult Negotiator' To Russia; 'You Have To Keep Your Eyes Open With It'

On August 21, 2024, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier of the State Council Li Qiang met in Moscow to negotiate key directions of their countries' collaboration.[1] As Russian media outlet Izvestia reported, "the main outcome of the meeting was the signing of a plan for Russia-China investment cooperation. The parties also concluded a number of agreements at the level of corresponding ministries. Among them was a memorandum of mutual understanding on promoting the use of highly automated transport in cross-border transportation, as well as in the fields of maritime search and rescue operations, chemical industry and green building."[2]

However, there may be reason for skepticism concerning the Russia-China economic partnership. The issue of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline seems to demonstrate that,[3] despite all the talk about the Russia-China friendship and civilizational affinity, China acts as a very pragmatic party. Commenting on the topic, on August 20, 2024, ahead of Li Qiang and Mishustin's meeting, Russian media outlet Kommersant published an article by Russian columnist Dmitry Drize in which he said that China may be "a good friend" to Russia, but it is also a very "difficult negotiator."

Chinese Premier of the State Council Li Qiang and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (source: Izvestia.ru).

Following is Drize's article:

"'Power Of Siberia 2' Project May Not Be Realized"

"The Chinese newspaper South China Morning Post reported disappointing news. It seems that the project of gas supplies to China called 'Power of Siberia 2,' which is important for the Russian Federation, will not be realized, at least not in the near future. According to the publication, Ulaanbaatar [the capital of Mongolia] believes that the construction will not start before 2028, and this is stated in the documentation. The information is unofficial, citing a source in Mongolia. However, it seems that it largely corresponds to reality. It has been reported before: although China is a friend and a strategic partner, it is a difficult negotiator, one might even dare say a very difficult one.

"Why Mongolia? Because it is the closest country to lay a pipeline through and, therefore, the cheapest one. The question is: Who will pay? Beijing says that it agrees to do this, but the price of gas for it in this case should be $60 per 1,000  cubic meters. The Chinese press also writes about this. Just for comparison – today the average exchange price of gas in Europe is $433 per 1,000  cubic meters. Further comments are excessive here.

"Everything is not easy for us with gas in general. As we know, the Ukrainian route will be closed this year. It is not clear what will replace it. As for the big hub in Turkey, there has been no development of the project lately. It seems that similar options with Azerbaijan and even Iran are being considered. However, let us not deviate from the topic.

"Power of Siberia-2" project (Source: News.az)

"Tensions In International Relations Clearly Hinder Business"

"Premier of the State Council of China Li Qiang has arrived in Moscow. He has a lot to discuss in the Russian capital: payments for goods, American and European sanctions, and much more. However, 'Power of Siberia 2,' apparently, will once again be put out of the brackets. By the way, after Russia, the distinguished guest [Li] will go to Belarus, where there is also a lot to talk about, in particular, the transit of Chinese goods to the EU. It is believed that there are already difficulties with this, primarily because of Minsk's uneasy relations with neighboring Poland.

"Be that as it may, if not everything, then a lot of things hang on politics. Tensions in international relations clearly hinder business, hence the gas pipelines are not being built.

"Goods are moving, of course, but not as fast as we would like. The railroads are also congested.[4] We have to pay money to each other somehow, we cannot carry cash by airplanes. Perhaps it is possible, but probably not very convenient. There are already plans to establish barter.[5] However, it seems to require that there is something to exchange out there. Besides, it is important not to lose money or overpay. As was said above, China, of course, is a good friend, but a difficult negotiator. You have to keep your eyes open with it."