Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, one of the prices that Russia was expected to pay, even in the event of the country's speedy occupation was protracted partisan warfare. As Russia, despite the disappointing achievements so far, extends its grip on Ukrainian territory, such partisan warfare has begun. On June 24, 2022, Dmytro Savluchenko, Director of the Department for Youth Policy in the Kherson occupation government was assassinated.
According to Russian special forces veteran Sergey Kozlov warns that the assassination of small fry Savluchenko was just a dry run for extensive Ukrainian sabotage activity in the "liberated territories" and in Russia proper.
The Ukrainian plan should be countered by creating a buffer zone separating Russian held territories from Ukraine and by targeting the training centers for saboteurs and their personnel. Kozlov warns that Ukraine following the ISIS model will use the internet to recruit radical Russian youth from the extreme right and the extreme left.
Kozlov's analysis follows below:[1]
Charred remains of Savluchenko's vehicle in Kherson (Source: Ria.ru)
"The threat of sabotage activities by Ukrainian subversive and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) on Russian territory is increasing. What’s more, artillery and guided missile strikes are being conducted against Russian territory.
"Ukrainian special unit soldiers publicly boast of their operations. For instance, the British newspaper The Times published an interview with Ukrainian servicemen from the 'Shaman' special forces unit. The officers and sergeants claim that they allegedly landed frequently from helicopters on Russian territory at night in order to sabotage Russian arms and oil depots.
"The Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, openly threatened Russia with terrorist attacks and sabotage on its territory in an interview with The Financial Times. He states that guerrilla activity at Russian-controlled territories is growing. According to Budanov, such attacks and sabotage operations are taking place everywhere, and they have been and will be conducted in Russia and in many other places.”
"As the publication noted, Budanov refused to clarify whether the Ukrainian authorities were behind these actions. However, I believe and it is obvious that they are behind them. This is clear to Russia's Investigation Committee that has launched criminal proceedings against Budanov. It was noted that the chief of Ukrainian intelligence publicly "issued a threat to commit terrorist actions on the Russian Federation's territory.
Kyrylo Budanov (Source: Pravda.com.ua)
"But this is true not only for Russian lands, but also for the lands of Ukraine liberated from the Nazis [the author is referring to the Zelensky government]. For instance, on June 24 in Kherson, Dmytro Savluchenko, Director of the Department for Youth Policy, perished in a terrorist attack. His car was blown up. Most likely, the execution followed the classic pattern: the route and schedule of the target was monitored; an explosive charge with a radio detonator was laid at the stopping place, and at the right moment the perpetrator sent a radio signal to the device.
"It’s possible that we are dealing merely with a capabilities check for terrorist groups prepared by the MID, since Savluchenko was not an important political figure. He came as an optimal target for an attributable practical training exercise. In this case, two tasks were solved simultaneously. The first is to demonstrate the perpetrators' level of preparedness. The second is [to obtain] a large-scale media effect.
"The fact that these were all training exercise is evidenced by the fact several attempts to commit terrorist acts against officials of the interim administration were made, but only this one achieved its goal. Kyiv couldn't make peace with the fact that in the liberated territories normal life is being restored. And Kherson plays first violin in this regard, as both the city and the oblast were among the first to come under Russian direction with minimal losses, unlike Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities, which were deliberately destroyed by the ZSU and national battalions. Therefore, what they didn’t complete immediately, they will try to do now, using methods of terrorist warfare.
"It’s possible to alter the situation by creating a buffer zone at the expense of an active offensive by the Russian Armed Forces deep into the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. It’s necessary to coordinate the activities of security forces from all agencies acting in the combat operations zone. In the current situation, the border guards could be strengthened with heavy arms and given the right to strike objects in Ukrainian territory independently by agreement with the command of the Russian Armed Forces.
"To neutralize the enemy’s efforts, it’s necessary to work more effectively on destruction of the terrorist networks created by the MID and the ZSU, working proactively against the enemy, as the modus operandi of his actions is expected and clear. Now dormant terrorist and subversive groups are being created and prepared in the training centers of Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk in order to conduct operations at the territories of those regions that will most likely be liberated by the Russian Armed Forces (Odessa, Nikolaev and Dnepropetrovsk.) Both these centers and the personnel as well as trainees of these educational facilities should become priority targets for the Russian Armed Forces and, first and foremost, for the special forces.
"What’s more, it’s important not to forget that both the MID and the ZSU possess a potential human resource on Russian territory. I mean not only the migrant workers. Strange as it may seem, the base of this resource is radical youth movements, both right-wing and left-wing. The ideological influence on Russia, as well as recruitment activity on social networks has been intensified.
"Countercultural movements in Russia are now being manipulated by Kyiv. Ukrainian security services are making full use of recruitment techniques used by ISIS. This in turn indicates that here as well the Americans and the British are behind everything.
"The recruitment techniques are based on the principles of networking and creation of an ideological franchise, when the employer provides an algorithm of specific actions, an uncomplicated ideology and the required funds. Darknet and local “dealers” of such services among radicals operating from neighboring territories, primarily Ukraine, are usually used for such orders.
"That is, personnel recruitment and the planning of remote operations is being rehearsed. The next step will be the creation and training of closed cells, like that of ISIS, which will be tasked with carrying out more complex and large-scale (possibly terrorist or sabotage) operations. We need to prepare for more serious challenges on part of Ukraine, which may soon identify themselves. I believe our special services are also prepared to repel sabotage attacks."
Kozlov (Source: 101tema.ru)
[1] Vz.ru, July 4, 2022.
