Introduction
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 created what the late American political analyst Charles Krauthammer called "a unipolar moment." America became the sole hegemonic power, as Russia was no longer a match for the U.S. and China was still too weak to challenge it. This unipolar moment lasted only 10 years. Two countries rose to challenge it: Iran and Qatar. They joined forces to establish a unified Islamist pole. While Iran did this through open confrontation, Qatar did this in its trademark way – through secrecy and deception.
The first attack on American hegemony was the 9/11 attack, masterminded by Khaled Sheikh Mohammed – a former Qatari government employee and a veteran of the jihad war against the U.S. As if that blow to the U.S. weren't enough, America became bogged down in two endless wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, further exacerbating America's deteriorating global status. Over the years, both countries, Iran and Qatar, continued to damage America's power, each in its own way.
During two American presidencies, this did not matter much. Both the Obama and Biden administrations sought peace through weakness. Eventually, this was no longer acceptable to the American public.
In his first term, President Trump was not able to completely implement his vision to "Make America Great Again" – to revive America's status as a unipolar hegemony. But he is more determined this time, and more capable of making it happen.
The first challenge Trump faces is the Gaza crisis and its ripple effect across entire Middle East dynamic. By proposing his unprecedented plan for post-war Gaza, he is now able to clearly distinguish allies from foes.
Arab heads of state are set to convene on February 27 in Cairo, to come up with a unified stance vis-à-vis Trump's Gaza plan. Most have already expressed their opposition to it. The Europeans too have come forward to oppose Trump, as have Russia, China, Turkey (a so-called NATO ally), and Iran.
The only country that has yet to express any official position on Trump's plan is Qatar, despite the central role it plays in the crisis – as Hamas' patron and a major sponsor of Islamist terrorism and Wahhabism worldwide. Qatar fears openly opposing oppose Trump, lest its true agenda be exposed. But it is subverting his plan by working to return the displaced Gazans to where their homes had been before the war began.
The 1948 Moment Of Trump's Plan: Rehabilitation Instead Of Return
Trump's plan for post-war Gaza brings the Palestinians and the entire Middle East back to 1948. At that time, post-WWII Europe was flooded with refugees and displaced persons of all nations. International organizations, led by the UN, offered displaced refugees resettlement and rehabilitation plans within their new geographic parameters.
It was only for the Palestinians that a different arrangement was made: A dedicated UN agency was created in 1949 for them – the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, aka UNRWA – with the goal of returning these refugees to what had become the State of Israel following a war of survival. No group of refugees, before or since, has ever had a UN agency established for it with the declared aim of returning them to the places they had lived before the war. Under this banner of return, the Palestinians kept alive the war against Israel, with the ultimate goal of wiping it out and sending the Jews back whence they came – at best. Time and again, these wars ended with more territory lost on the Arab and Palestinian side, and with still more Palestinian refugees.
Two countries, Egypt and Jordan, broke the cycle of war, signing peace accords that, "cold" peace or not, have held for 45 and 30 years, respectively.
The October 7, 2023 attack on Israel and the war that followed involved Hamas, Qatar, Hizbullah, and Iran, as well as other Iranian proxies such as Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen. This marked another attempt to reestablish Palestine from the river to the sea. Israel was caught unprepared, and suffered a devastating blow. Moreover, Israel was allied with its own enemy, Qatar, the global terrorist sponsor that had poured billions of dollars into Hamas's military empire, building it into a force of 30,000-40,00 fighters, with over 500 kilometers of tunnels, firing thousands of missiles into Israeli population centers.
Israel stood fast under this blow from the south, north, and Yemen, and prevailed, even though it is now forced to surrender to Hamas in order to rescue the hostages – whom Hamas uses as a strategic weapon.
Enter President Trump, with his 1948 solution – and just when it seemed that things could get no worse for the Palestinians, here comes Qatar to incite them again with the dream of return, in order to thwart Trump's proposal. In doing so, however, Qatar is pushing the Palestinians into oblivion. But Qatar could not care less. It will fight to the last Palestinian – just as Iran will fight to the last Syrian, Iraqi, or Yemenite Houthi.
In Summary
All this might not matter so much in the global arena had Qatar not undermined Trump's plan with impunity – again, due to its phenomenal capability for deception. The Trump administration is hopelessly incapable of identifying Qatar for what it truly is – a foe. If Trump's plan does not materialize, the Gazans will be returned to Gaza by Qatar – and there will be another cycle of war with Israel. The long-term damage will be done, and it will mark, for Trump's MAGA vision, America's incapability of dealing with the Middle East from a hegemonic position. Tiny Qatar will singlehandedly sweep away the vision of MAGA, impacting all U.S. allies as well as U.S. adversaries.
* Yigal Carmon is Founder and President of MEMRI.
