Syrian Opposition Elements Express Concerns About Exclusion From New Regime: Assad's Tyranny Must Not Be Replaced By Tyranny Headed By Al-Sharaa AKA Al-Joulani

Introduction

The celebrations across Syria following the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime have not removed concerns about the country's future. First and foremost of these concerns is that the previous tyranny will be replaced with another headed by Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), known for his Sunni jihadist past,[1] who led the November 27 rebel offensive that brought down the regime in a mere 11 days.

After reaching Damascus on December 9, Al-Joulani, who now uses his real name, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, handed over the power in Syria to a transitional government structured identically to the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), HTS's civilian wing in Idlib province that administered the group's stronghold there up until the fall of the Assad regime. SSG Prime Minister Muhammad Al-Bashir, a close affiliate of Al-Sharaa, announced on December 10 that he would serve as prime minister of the transitional government that is to remain in power until March 1, 2025.[2]

The establishment of this transitional government was received with concern by the Syrian opposition, which advocates for the establishment of a civil state. These concerns were particularly felt by the National Coalition of the Syrian Opposition Forces (henceforth the Opposition Coalition), which is considered the main body tying together the various Syrian political and militant factions, including Syrian minority groups such as the Turkmen and the Kurds.

This opposition coalition, which is headquartered in Istanbul, has in recent years lost a great deal of its influence among the Syrian public and in the international arena,[3] and it now worries that it will be excluded from a role in the construction of post-Assad Syria. Elements within it have said that they were ignored by HTS during the establishment of the current Syrian transitional government. In addition, as Al-Sharaa meets frequently with foreign diplomatic representatives, journalists, religious scholars, Syrian militant faction commanders, and businessmen, it appears that meeting with representatives from the Opposition Coalition is not a top priority for him.

The fear that HTS will impose unilateral control and establish a state that is Islamist in character has pushed senior opposition figures who want a civil state to call for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, of 2015, that set out a roadmap and a timetable for a political process in Syria and stipulated that the body that would administer the transitional phase until elections are held would be "a reliable, inclusive, non-sectarian government."[4]

There has also been a call for a broad and representative regime in Syria on the international level, where there are fears of exclusive control of the country by a jihadist regime. The December 14, 2024 meeting in Aqaba, Jordan held by the Arab Ministerial Contact Committee on Syria – which includes the foreign ministers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, attended also by the foreign ministers of Bahrain, France, Germany, Qatar, Turkey, the UAE, Britain, the United States, the EU, and UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen – concluded with a statement of support for a political transition. This transition, it said, would represent "political and social forces... under the auspices of the United Nations and the Arab League, in accordance with the principles of Security Council Resolution 2254, its objectives, and mechanisms. This includes the formation of an inclusive transitional governing body by mutual agreement among Syrians.[5]

In addition, the UN Security Council called unanimously, at its December 17, 2024 meeting on the issue of Syria, for a comprehensive political process based on the foundational principles of Resolution 2254.[6] However, Al-Sharaa is signaling that 2254 is no longer valid; in a December 15 meeting with UN Special Envoy Pedersen he called for "reassessing the resolution" due to the political changes in Syria.[7]

The opposition's concerns that Syria will become an Islamist state also emerged following the HTS transitional government's decision to display at its meetings the Syrian national flag alongside an Islamic flag associated with HTS in Idlib.

Ahmad Sharaa AKA Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani in Damascus following the fall of the Assad regime. Source: Syriacpress.com, December 9, 2024.

This report will provide an overview of the concerns voiced by the Syrian opposition about a possible unilateral HTS regime in Syria.

Opposition Coalition: The Transitional Government Must Include All Elements Of The Syrian People

The exclusion of the Opposition Coalition from the Syrian transitional government sparked great resentment among the opposition. Dr. Abdulhakim Bashar, a coalition deputy chairman, called the HTS's unilateral establishment of the transitional government "a failed move."[8] Another opposition member, who was not named, said that he viewed this as "a bad omen" and assessed that the current transitional government would be no different from the future permanent government.[9]

However, the understanding that the transitional government is necessary, alongside what appears to be a desire to refrain from clashing with HTS, which is currently the most powerful player on the scene, prompted the Opposition Coalition to come to terms with Al-Bashir's transitional government and to see it as a necessary step in the first phase after the collapse of the Assad regime to ensure security and order in Syria. At the same time, however, it has begun to act to ensure its representation in the next transitional government that will be elected in March based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

This is the approach presented by Opposition Coalition chairman Hadi Al-Bahra in interviews he gave to the Arab and foreign press. For instance, in a December 13 interview with the Kurdish Rudaw Media Network, Al-Bahra said that the future transitional government must "include all the political, ethnic, and religious elements and components of the Syrian people and not exclude any [of them] from the political process; it must be trustworthy, and must include in practice all the forces that worked for change, and the forces that represent the rest of the society, and must not be established on an ethnic basis. This transitional government is equivalent to what was previously called the transitional governing body in Security Council Resolution 2254."

Al-Bahra added: "We are looking forward to meeting soon with Ahmed Al-Sharaa to exchange views and the required next steps, so that all the Syrian elements, from all the different elements of the Syrian people, will work as one and in coordination." The three basic goals in Syria, he said, are "justice, democracy, and a state with equal citizenship for all Syrians, both in rights and in obligations."[10]

In its calls for implementing Resolution 2254, the Opposition Coalition emphasized that this would also lead to a lifting of the sanctions imposed on Syria during the Assad regime. Thus, it stated in a December 16 announcement: "The lifting of the sanctions is related to achievements that will be attained in the process of completing the steps of the political transition in a manner consistent with Resolution 2254. A statement of commitment to implement this resolution by the Syrian revolutionary forces will reassure the international community concerning the direction of the Syrian state and the future political regime, as it will ensure that it will not turn to extremism, a new dictatorship, or the exclusion of a sector or a part of the Syrian people."[11]

Speaking to the Saudi Al-Arabiya news channel on December 17, Al-Bahra said that implementing Resolution 2254 would facilitate the international community's lifting of the sanctions, transfer of support, and investment in Syria.[12]

Hadi Al-Bahra, chairman of the Opposition Coalition in Syria (Source: Etilaf.org, December 17, 2024)

Syrian Negotiation Commission: Resolution 2254 Is A Roadmap To Fulfilling The Will Of The Syrian People

The Syrian Negotiation Commission, that was established to represent the Syrian opposition during the political negotiations process with the Assad regime, also expressed concern about a unilateral Syrian regime. For this reason, commission chairman Bader Jamous underlined, in his December 17, 2024 UN Security Council speech on the issue of Syria, the importance of Resolution 2254, which called for a ceasefire and a political resolution to the Syrian civil war. Jamous said: "Resolution 2254 constitutes a roadmap to fulfilling the aspirations of our people. It is true that the circumstances have changed and that the regime that had been part of this resolution has fallen, but the spirit and essence of the resolution, which are manifest in the nation's self-determination by means of fair elections over seen by the United Nations, are still a principle that we rely on... We are determined to build the new Syria; a country of law, justice, and democracy; a country that defends all of its citizens, with no discrimination..."[13]

The day before Jamous's speech, the Saudi Al-Majalla magazine published a document prepared by the Syrian Negotiation Commission titled "The Map Of The Current Phase," with the goal of presenting it at the Security Council. The document begins with the statement: "Due to the HTS takeover of the [Syrian] capital of Damascus, and its assumption of power, there is now a need for a clear and systematic roadmap for achieving a democratic political transition in Syria. This transition must be based on Resolution 2254, as it is best framework for arriving at a comprehensive political solution that will guarantee fair elections under UN oversight, and will lay the foundations for a democratic and pluralistic state."

Later in the document, the commission demanded that it negotiate with HTS in order to establish a transitional government with representatives from both sides, alongside representatives from other political, ethnic, and religious factions, and representation of young people and women.[14]

The Syrian opposition organization known as The Moscow Platform, which had been part of the Syrian Negotiation Commission until December 18 when it announced it was suspending its membership in the commission following the fall of the Assad regime that was the target of its oppositionist activity,[15] also warned about a unilateral HTS government in Syria. In a December 9 statement, the platform said: "Taking sole control of decision-making... circumventing the judicial framework of the transition [to a new regime in Syria] including Resolution 2254 and the current Syrian constitution whose clauses provide a judicial path that eases the transitional process – all of this can cause great harm to all the goals for which the Syrian nation has fought for many long years. The Syrian people absolutely do not want to go from one unilateral regime to another unilateral regime."[16]

Prime Minister Of The Opposition Coalition's "Syrian Interim Government": We Must Not Go From One Dictator To Another

Abdurrahman Mustafa, prime minister of the Opposition Coalition's "Syrian Interim Government" that until Assad's removal controlled areas in northern Syrian under Turkish influence, also expressed concerns about Syria's future. In a December 18, 2024 interview with BBC Turkey, Mustafa, who after the fall of the Assad regime had reportedly said that he himself was the most appropriate candidate for the position of Syrian transitional prime minister[17] – expressed  caution vis-à-vis HTS, saying: "We will wait and see. They also talk about democracy and the will of the people. What has happened thus far makes us happy, but it is too early to tell. If a transitional government is established by March 1, this will be a sign that they are on the right path. There is no need for this to be viewed as imposing a new reality, and we must not go from one dictator to another. Naturally, this will not be easy, but the struggle to build a democratic Syria that includes everybody and is based on principles of equal citizenship without any discrimination will continue... It is natural for us to have concerns regarding Syria's future... In his statements, [Ahmad Al-Sharaa] always says that he has changed. It is too soon to tell. We will see this in actions, not only in words."[18]

Syrian Writers: An Exclusively HTS Transitional Government – A Unilateral Takeover

Along with official members of the opposition, Syrian writers have also expressed concern that HTS may appropriate the government of the country and exclude representatives of other groups.

The Kurdish-Syrian poet, writer, and journalist Hosheng Ossi bases his concern on the HTS decision to appoint a transitional government comprised solely of HTS members. In a December 13 article on the Syria.tv opposition website, he claimed that this indicates danger to the future of Syria and may yet lead to yearning for the days of Assad's Ba'ath Party. He wrote: "It is true that one cannot determine what the new Syria will look like based on the first days of HTS rule over the country and its residents... However, it would be irresponsible and ignorant to ignore several signs that spark concern about tomorrow – in the political, military, informational, and administrative spheres. The most prominent sign is the manner and the way in which the SSG (i.e. the transitional government) was established and the way it took the reins of the regime from the previous Syrian [Assad] government. This was carried out in in a way that is unsettling and generates doubt, concern, and fear. This is because Syria cannot be administered, especially during the transitional period, in accordance with the way of thinking and the logic of Al-Jama'ah Al-Islamiyah (which is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda and the Islamist factions and militias)...

"Yes, this is a transitional period and not a permanent situation, but it is still a very important phase of the establishment [of the forthcoming regime] upon which the future of the new Syria will be built. Should the transitional phase be painted in a single religious, ideological, nationalist, and party hue, and be connected to a specific religious school of thought, it will become a minefield that is likely to seriously endanger the future of the new Syria or encompass it with numerous dangers that could bring it back to a very primitive situation that could make the Syrian citizen long for the Ba'ath era.

"The desire to so quickly establish the salvation government [the transitional government] in accordance with HTS while ignoring all other Syrian forces that opposed the Assad regime... and the disregard of the secular, democratic, and civil political forces during the transitional phase is very dangerous. Therefore, based on what we can see [on the ground], every Syrian citizen is entitled to say that the nature of HTS as Islamist and jihadi supersedes the nature that it attributed to itself as a national Syrian political party that seeks to mend what was destroyed by the Assad regime that is now gone."[19]

Syrian researcher Haid Haid also expressed concerns regarding the Syrian transition government as a unilateral HTS seizure of the country. In a December 17, 2024 article in the Saudi Al-Majalla magazine, he wrote: "During the swift military attack that toppled the regime, HTS adopted a moderate tone and promised to protect both the civilians, including the minorities, and assets and public institutions. These promises, along with the outstanding discipline HTS had maintained in the regions it controlled, gave the Syrians a spark of hope. The group has also expressed willingness for a transitional government to rule, thus dispersing the concerns that the regime will be unilateral.

"However, recent developments paint a different picture, because after the rapid fall of the [Assad] regime, HTS appointed the prime minister of the SSG, which it oversees and which has long been in charge of administering [HTS] territories in northwestern Syria, to establish and lead a transitional government for the country...

"This move raises serious concerns, not only about the quality of the individuals involved but also because of what it represents – that is, HTS's unilateral seizure of power, instead of the establishment of an inclusive and broadly representative [transitional] government. The implications of this course of action are grave, and if HTS continues to repeat the SSG model in Damascus and other areas once under the control of the previous [Assad] regime, it will lead to the exclusion of the Syrian activists who deserve to be the ones to shape the country's future…"[20]

Transitional Government Attacked When Islamic Flag Affiliated With HTS Is Placed Alongside Syrian Flag

The Syrian transitional government also drew fire when, in its first session on December 10, 2024, an Islamic flag associated with HTS in Idlib was placed next to the Syrian flag that had long been the symbol of opposition to the Assad regime and is now the symbol of the country. This Islamic flag is white with black text of the Tawheed – "There is no god but Allah and Muhammad is His prophet" – and its prominent placement was seen as a sign that HTS is the sole ruler of Syria and also raising doubts about the promised secular nature of the new regime.

For example, Syrian journalist Alia Mansour, affiliated with the opposition in Syria, tweeted a photo of transitional prime minister Muhammad Al-Bashir seated next to the two flags and, addressing Al-Sharaa, wrote: "Hundreds of thousands of Syrians did not die as martyrs so that we could swap the flag of the Ba'ath [Party] for the HTS flag. Only the flag of free Syria [i.e. the other flag in the photo] represents us."[21]

Syrian TV presenter Asya Hesham, an anchor on the UAE Al-Mashhad channel, tweeted the same photo and wrote: "Oh appointed government, what is this flag?! Where did you get it [only to place it] alongside the flag of [Syrian] independence?! We don't want it, we will not adopt it, and we do not care about the beliefs of the group [HTS] that is now ruling and administrating affairs. We are Syrians and nothing more. You should pay attention to every detail and every word that you utter during this sensitive stage. Our flag [i.e. the opposition flag] is familiar and known, and there is no need for inserting poison and conveying religious messages. We ask that it [the flag affiliated with HTS] be removed from next to the flag of independence."[22]

Syrian Writer: With Al-Joulani, The Syrians Will Not Eliminate Tyranny And Corruption

In an article published on the Syria.tv website, Syrian writer and researcher Hossam Jazmati pointed out the many similarities between Al-Joulani's previous HTS regime in northwestern Syria and the Assad regime. Al-Joulani, he wrote, may not constitute a threat to the West, but he will not actualize the Syrian people's hopes to eliminate tyranny: "Throughout Al-Joulani's intense struggle to achieve enough foreign recognition for [HTS] to no longer be designated a terrorist group – as he hopes, without any serious figures on which to base this – he thought that his actions at home are not under a microscope. He established a security agency whose brutality and surveillance of society continue to intensify, although they have not been as brutal as Assad's intelligence agencies. He has maintained the façade of a 'salvation government' whose leader and ministers are chosen after being vetted from a security and personal perspective, just like in the Assad regime. And like [Assad], he has established a sort of 'National Progressive Front'[23] to which adds the factions he defeated in his many internal wars to expand his rule. He has maintained control of the region's resources by direct oversight or via preferential [treatment of] his associates, and more and more.

"HTS is [allegedly] not a threat to the West – not because it has undergone any collective change, but because its singular senior leader has changed. This turning point might help in the context of terrorism cases and its actions vis-à-vis minorities that have been fed promises over recent days, but it will not realize the Syrians' hopes to eliminate tyranny and corruption, to eliminate a regime comprising entirely of security officials, or to eliminate nepotism and appointment of pawns.

"Today, Al-Joulani benefits from the fact that most of his opponents and those who doubt him are shooting at the garments he once wore that he has hung up without even laundering. He is prepared to sufficiently commit or guarantee that he has left his Salafi-jihadi past behind forever, but he is unwilling to relinquish his current status, just like every tyrant who is working to entrench his rule...

"In a controversial move, his forces opened the gates of the prisons in Aleppo and Hama, freeing all the prisoners with no clear distinction between political and criminal prisoners. But the [gates of the] prisons in Idlib [under HTS control for several years] remain closed on the ideological prisoners and organizers of silent protests demanding policy change."[24]

* O. Peri is a Research Fellow at MEMRI.