On May 16, 2022, Hsien-Tsan Lin, director of the East Asian Department of National Taiwan Normal University, warned that Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and all the "Taiwan independence" promoters should draw a hard lesson from Ukraine. In fact, he said that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky's "political trick" of promoting the idea of joining NATO became Russian President Vladimir Putin's excuse for his invasion. For this reason, Taiwan should be prepared for a Chinese invasion.
"Taiwan must also show its determination to defend itself to both the mainland and to the democratic world such as the EU, the U.S., and Japan. Taiwan could do this by implementing policies like restoring its conscription system and actively building its combat capability in response to the mainland's aggression," Hsien-Tsan Lin said.
At the same time, Hsien-Tsan Lin argued that China is also bound to draw lessons from Russia's military failures. As a result, China may develop a more "deadly operational plan for invading Taiwan." Hsien-Tsan Lin also warned that, because of the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States will have to split its military resources between Europe and Asia.
Hsien-Tsan Lin (Source: Crntt.com)
Following is the article published by the China Review Network:[1]
"Taiwan Must Also Show Its Determination To Defend Itself"
"Hsien-Tsan Lin, director of the East Asian Department of National Taiwan Normal University, said on May 16, 2022, that Ukrainian President Zelensky's political trick of promoting joining NATO has become Russian President Vladimir Putin's excuse for the invasion. Lin says that this is a worthy, hard lesson for the DPP government and for those promoting 'Taiwan independence.' Taiwan must also show its determination to defend itself to both the mainland and to democratic world such as the EU, the U.S., and Japan. Taiwan could do this by implementing policies like restoring its conscription system and actively building its combat capability in response to the mainland's aggression.
"Lin said that mainland [China] is bound to draw lessons from Russia's military failures, European and U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and sanctions against Russia. As a result, the mainland will develop a more effective and deadly operational plan for invading Taiwan.
"The Academy of International and Social Sciences, the Department of East Asian Studies, and the Cross-Strait Development Research Foundation of National Taiwan Normal University co-hosted an online forum called 'The Russian-Ukrainian War and East Asian Regional Security: Implications for Taiwan' on May 16, discussing the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on East Asian politics and economies.
"The forum invited a number of scholars, including Hsien-Tsan Lin, director of the East Asian Department of Taiwan Normal University, who talked about 'The Motivation and Timing of Russia's War and Its Impact on Regional Security in East Asia,' Szu-Shen Ho, director of the Center for Japanese and East Asian Studies at Fu Jen Catholic University, who talked about 'New trends in Northeast Asia during International Political Changes;' Shih-ping Fan, professor of East Asian Studies at Taiwan Normal University, who talked about 'The Revelation of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine to both sides of the Strait;' and Chengli Tien, professor of East Asian Studies at Taiwan Normal University, who talked about 'The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Situation on Taiwan's Foreign Trade and Investments.'
"If China Is Going To Provide Military Support To Russia... Countries Surrounding [China] Will Have A Clearer And More Positive Tendency To Cooperate With The U.S."
"Hsien-Tsan Lin said that Russia justified its invasion of Ukraine on the grounds of 'security dilemmas' such as NATO's eastward expansion, but he did not believe that NATO's eastward expansion had reached the point where Russia must use force. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly has the following motives: Russia unifies Ukraine, seizes Odessa and Kherson in southern and southeastern Ukraine, ensures the connection between the Crimea Peninsula and the Russian mainland, and maintains Russia's dominant position in the Black Sea.
"Lin said that there are three reasons why Putin launched the war at this time. First, European and American countries did not actively respond to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. Second, the determination of the United States to act as the world's policeman has been shaken, and its ability to do so has also been questioned. The United States has implemented 'automatic spending cuts' in the defense budget since 2013, with a total reduction of 500 billion US dollars in 10 years. Third, the 'America First' proposition originated from the Trump administration has caused a crack in the alliance between Europe and the United States.
"In addition, Lin pointed out that the hast and chaotic withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021 gave the Russian the impression that the U.S. will no longer be involved in foreign conflicts and its hegemony has declined. The Biden administration is also too busy building an Indo-Pacific strategy targeting the mainland. All these made Putin dare to challenge the U.S. by launching its invasion of Ukraine. As for the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on East Asia, Lin believes that the 'military involvement' of the United States and NATO in the Russian-Ukrainian war will force the United States to split its military resources between Europe and Asia.
"There will be some opportunities in East Asia for mainland China to take advantage of. However, the Biden administration's assistance to Ukraine is currently limited to military supplies and intelligence sharing, and the United States still adheres to the policy of giving priority to East Asia. It remains to be seen what happens next. If mainland China is going to provide military support to Russia, it will inevitably increase the confrontation between the United States and China in East Asia, and the countries surrounding the mainland will have a clearer and more positive tendency to cooperate with the United States."
[1] Bj.crntt.com/doc/1063/6/8/6/106368688.html?coluid=46&kindid=0&docid=106368688&mdate=0516143350, May 16, 2022.
