On May 15, 2022, Taiwanese freelance journalist Yanmo published an article in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled Chinese media outlet Guancha.cn, titled "Taiwan Is 'Not Ready To Fight A Ukrainian-Style Cannon Fodder War." In the article, Yanmo criticized the U.S. State Department for removing the phrases "Taiwan is part of China" and "The U.S. does not support Taiwan independence" from the Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet describing U.S.-Taiwan relations.
According to Yanmo, Washington is aiming at the "Ukrainization" of Taiwan. He added that the U.S. is laying out its preparations "to force Beijing to attack Taiwan" in the future. Yet, Yanmo stated that the U.S. is "far from being able to use the same tools against Russia to deal with China." "On the one hand, comprehensive sanctions against China would amount to the total collapse of the West, and on the other hand, Taiwan is simply not ready to fight a Ukrainian-style 'cannon fodder war,'" Yanmo stressed.
(Source: Twitter)
Following is the full article:[1]
"Is Washington Secretly Forcing 'Beijing To Attack Taiwan'?"
"On May 5th, the U.S. State Department updated the Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet describing 'U.S. Relations With Taiwan' on its official website, removed the sentences 'Taiwan is part of China' and 'The U.S. does not support Taiwan independence' from its old version of the Fact Sheet published on August 31, 2018.
"The old version clearly stated that the United States recognized the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, and the United States acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China, which is the premise of Taiwan-U.S. relations. In contrast, the new edition begins by emphasizing that .as a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, Taiwan is a key U. S. partner in the Indo-Pacific.'
"In reply to Taiwan media, the U.S. State Department provided a background statement: U.S.'s 'one-China policy' has not changed. For more than 40 years, this policy has always been guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances.
"The U.S. has changed the key statement that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are highly concerned about, but insisted that its position remains unchanged, which reminds me of an interesting piece of news.
"Last year, Australian conservationists and researchers called for the term 'shark attack' in the news reporting to be replaced by "negative encounter" because, in most incidents, shark bites are minor injuries. Baby sharks bite for 'exploring with their mouths' by nature, not because they want to 'attack.'
"The U.S. State Department bit China. Is this 'exploring' a new form of China-U.S.-Taiwan Region tripartite relations, or an 'attack'?
"Australian researchers stressed that the use of 'shark attack' or 'negative encounter' in news presentations depends on the severity of the wound. In other words, whether a shark is 'exploring' or 'attacking,' the person who was bitten has the final say. If China feels hurt badly, it is an attack, no matter what the U.S. State Department says.
"After all, the statement on the U.S. official website represents the official attitude of the United States, which is different from the garbage bills produced by Taiwan's legislators. Whether it is an exploration or an attack, China ought to believe that removing the sentence 'Taiwan is part of China' at a sensitive time is a bloodthirsty attack.
"Legally speaking, the move is also an attack on Taiwan, because the island's jurisprudence is clear – 'Taiwan is part of China.' What the two sides have in common on legal grounds is that 'Taiwan is part of China.' In the new version of the Fact Sheet, regarding China's role in Taiwan-U.S. relations, there is only a slight mention of 'the United States has long pursued the one-China policy,' without mentioning the contents of the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques. It shows the U.S. is intentionally not mentioning China's just position in Taiwan-U.S. relations, as if China is a discordant existence, which makes people feel that the United States very much wishes not to mention this key role.
"The 'Russian-Ukrainian conflict' provides a clear model for how the United States can use Taiwan to deal with China, and Washington's recent frequent diplomatic and military activities all point to the 'Ukrainization' of Taiwan. So, is Washington secretly forcing 'Beijing to attack Taiwan'?"
The U.S. "Purpose Is To Roll Out The Red Carpet For 'Taiwan's International Participation'"
"The Fact Sheet has three main parts: Economic Relations, People-to-People Ties, and Taiwan's Role in the International Community. Among them, 'Taiwan's Role in the International Community' is the main work of the State Department. In this regard, the Fact Sheet stated clearly that the United States will continue to support Taiwan's membership in international organizations where statehood is not a requirement and encourage Taiwan's meaningful participation in organizations where its membership is not possible.
"This policy originated from [U.S. Secretary Of State Antony] Blinken's public statement last January that he wants to see Taiwan play a bigger role in the world. What he means is to avoid 'sovereignty,' but to deepen Taiwan's sense of presence in the international community, aiming to create a fait accompli, while nominally maintaining the disguised independence of Taiwan, so as to maintain the status quo in favor of the United States.
"The word 'meaningful' in the sentence 'to encourage Taiwan's meaningful participation in organizations where its membership is not possible' is a euphemism for 'unfair' to true 'Taiwan independence' forces, such as joining as an 'observer' rather than a full member in United Nations Organizations. However, the true 'Taiwan independence' has been buried in Taiwan by the United States and the DPP jointly, and now no one on the island would criticize the United States for dwarfing Taiwan.
"The Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a Washington think tank, published a report in April detailing how the United States should implement Blinken's ideas to help Taiwan expand its international engagement. Eighty percent of this report is nonsense, and the only important part is to emphasize helping Taiwan's 'substantial' participation in the international community, not just 'symbolic.' In short, it is to strengthen Taiwan's substantial international influence.
"Something with 'symbolic' significance, such as strengthening relations between Lithuania and Taiwan, can be done, but should not become the main axis of the U.S. policy. It can only serve as a lever to consolidate 'like-minded' allies and help Taiwan expand its 'circle of friends without diplomatic ties.'
"Considering that Taiwan's 'friendly countries' are all small countries, the report advocates helping Taiwan to deepen substantive exchanges with middle-size countries, which includes allowing Taiwan to exchange security issues with middle-size countries, taking the opportunity to participate in multilateral institutions, contributing public goods, deepening economic trade and financial exchanges, and forming a network of common interests in security and economy.
"Such an approach is to serve Washington's main strategy of confronting Beijing on the Taiwan Strait issue, which is to maintain the status quo with substantial 'deterrence.' As long as the existence of Taiwan is indispensable in the international community, Beijing will not dare to resort to force against it.
"From the perspective of 'substantial participation,' it can be understood that the specific purpose of removing the expressions 'Taiwan is part of China' and 'the United States does not support Taiwan independence' from the Fact Sheet is to pave the way for 'international participation of Taiwan,' as far as possible to offset Beijing's staunch opposition.
"From the review of the idea of 'substantial participation,' we can see clearly why those sentences of 'Taiwan is a part of China' and 'the United States does not support Taiwan independence' are removed from the Fact Sheet. The purpose is to roll out the red carpet for 'Taiwan's international participation,' and to offset as much as possible the rationale for Beijing's staunch opposition.
"The report also recommends that the United States should introduce an agenda for Taiwan's international engagement in U.S.'s bilateral exchanges with certain countries, as well as in the G7 and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, to highlight Taiwan's importance, and to cultivate Taiwan's diplomacy with middle-size countries and promote unity. All in all, the idea is to make this habitual practice natural, to ensure that Taiwan has someone to cuddle with at all times, and form an increasing deterrent force against Beijing.
"However, during Blinken's tenure as Secretary of State over the past year, the United States has been promoting Taiwan's international participation, but with limited success. Recently, in order to help Taiwan join the WHA (World Health Assembly), the United States has made a lot of moves. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives have passed bills for this move. Parliament representatives from Italy, Ireland, Denmark, Switzerland, Latvia, and Slovakia also staged some shows supporting Taiwan's participation in the WHA. However, this effort failed in the end.
"In addition, members of parliaments from several European countries also frequently visited Taiwan, most notably Lithuania, whose outlandish antics have yet to be followed.
"The reality is that the Biden administration does want to increase Taiwan's international participation, but it has been ineffective. Some members of parliaments from various countries visited Taiwan, and they were all performing as well as seeking benefits. So far, Taiwan has no 'substantive' international participation at all.
"However, we cannot underestimate the persistence of the U.S. side. Ukraine has no sovereignty disputes, but Taiwan has greater importance than Ukraine in international trade and in certain technological fields. Destruction is always easier than construction. The United States already has a lot of tools for destruction, and in addition to removing some keywords from diplomatic documents, the U.S. also added a lot of other 'weapons.'"
The U.S. "Has Taken Inspiration From Its Experience In Ukraine And Has Put Full Control Over Taiwan's Arms Purchases"
"Every part of the Fact Sheet requires Taiwan's full cooperation to achieve total U.S. domination, which is likely to deter Chinese mainland. The recent ups and downs of Taiwan arms purchases alone have shown that the United States has taken inspiration from its experience in Ukraine and has put full control over Taiwan's arms purchases.
"The Fact Sheet said that consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States makes available defense articles and services as necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.
"When it comes to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, it has always been the seller who has the final say, and the buyer just accepts it in full. In the past, the Taiwan military still had some chance to purchase what it wanted. After the Russian-Ukraine conflict, this tiny autonomy was deprived. The U.S. even asked U.S. arms dealers to cooperate with the State Department's arrangements and not to lobby for specific weapons for Taiwan.
"Under the strong domination of the United States, Taiwan's defense strategy has changed. In a word, what Ukraine needs now, Taiwan will need in the future, such as anti-submarine missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, drones, maritime mines, anti-tank missiles, and Stinger air defense missiles, etc. The United States plans to store a large amount of ammunition and arms in Taiwan in preparation for a war of attrition. Therefore, some large traditional weapons, such as MH-60R Seahawk helicopters and M1A2 tanks, do not conform to the principle of 'asymmetric warfare,' and the United States will not sell them to Taiwan.
"Regarding what weapons are needed for 'asymmetric warfare,' the U.S. think tank CSIS issued specific guidelines last year. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the U.S. State Department put more effort into implementing the strategic guidelines and added weapons that have been proven effective in the 'Ukrainian experience.'
"In addition, learning from the 'Russian experience,' the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that the U.S. military's logistics capabilities in Asia are insufficient, and submitted the 'Pacific Deterrence Initiative' (PDI) to Congress in April, asking for 20% more budget, aiming to improve the capabilities and readiness of the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific region.
"The extra budget is specifically used to strengthen the capabilities of logistics and transportation, and to stockpile ammunition, fuel, food and medical supplies in advance in 'frontline areas' to facilitate the supply of the U.S. military.
"The so-called frontline areas include the strongholds of the first island chain and the second island chain. The United States will focus on replenishing supplies for Guam and Japan and develop high-speed support ships to quickly transport weapons and supplies between the islands.
"According to Nikkei Asia, the U.S. Marine Corps 'is looking to operate along the first island chain – spanning Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines – to disperse troops in what is known as expeditionary advanced base operations. This includes the establishment of temporary staging bases for anti-ship missiles, air defense and intelligence gathering, which are only used for a short period of time before being moved to the next location.'
"In short, the U.S. assesses that in the situation of military confrontation with China, the U.S. would lose its maritime superiority, so the logistics supply capability is increasingly important. In this regard, Japan plays a key role, which of course has become the main issue of the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee ('2+2').
"As mentioned earlier, former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has frequently published articles in foreign media recently, repeatedly calling on the United States to change its Taiwan policy to 'strategic clarity,' which shows Japan's desire to make early preparations for its defense assistance through a clear defense posture."
It's A "Shark Attack"
"The United States has made frequent diplomatic and military moves, such as the update of the State Department's 'Bilateral Relations Fact Sheet,' all in preparation for the conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
"Deleting the sentences of 'Taiwan is part of China' and 'The United States does not support Taiwan's independence' will help to remove stumbling blocks for Taiwan to expand its international participation before the outbreak of conflict. In a roundabout and gradual way, it would highlight Taiwan's 'sovereign existence,' 'One Country on Each Side' on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, and strengthen Taiwan's substantial international influence.
"Of course, this will have a demonstration effect on the circle of friends of the United States and reduce the psychological resistance of America's teammates to contact Taiwan in violation of the 'One-China Principle.'
"It is unrealistic to say that Washington is 'secretly forcing Beijing to attack Taiwan,' because in the short term, the United States is far from being able to use the same tools against Russia to deal with China. On the one hand, comprehensive sanctions against China would amount to the total collapse of the West, and on the other hand, Taiwan is simply not ready to fight a Ukrainian-style 'cannon fodder war.'
"It is correct to say that the United States is laying out its preparations to force Beijing to attack Taiwan in the future. The United States magnifies Taiwan in the international community and shapes Taiwan's armament to maximize the arbitrage space of the United States. As soon as everything is ready, Washington will 'force Beijing to attack Taiwan.' So it's not a 'negative encounter,' it's a 'shark attack.'"
[1] Guancha.cn/yanmo/2022_05_15_639789_s.shtml, May 15, 2022.
