The 66th webinar of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA), which was part of a series titled "The Decline of the American Empire and the Future of Western Asia in the Emerging New World Order," was streamed live on January 29, 2024. This series, according to the center, "focus[es] on the perceived decline of American dominance and its implications for Western Asia in an emerging multipolar world order" and on how "countries like Turkey, Iran, [and] Saudi Arabia... are adapting to the changing global order." It also "analyzes their strategies in balancing relationships with traditional allies like the United States while forging new alliances with rising powers such as China and Russia" and "offers a comprehensive outlook on the future of Western Asia in this emerging new world order." In the webinar, "Western Asia" is defined as "a Middle East plus."
In this webinar, CIGA director Sami Al-Arian and Assoc. Prof. Tarik Cyril Amar from Koc University in Istanbul explore, as per the episode's description, "the shifting geopolitical landscape as the influence of the United States wanes and new powers emerge" and analyze "how regional powers are navigating the changing global order."
The center itself was introduced by webinar moderator Uveys Han, a CIGA research fellow, as "focus[ing] on the relationship between the Muslim world and the international order." According to
According to a 2020 report, Istanbul Zaim University, of which CIGA is a part, is linked to the Turkish government: "AKP officials... have also identified Istanbul Zaim University, a smaller private university, as a space at which to host international academic events to bring Western Muslims together." The report notes CIGA's "role as a center at which to bring together prominent Muslims and pro-Erdoğan intellectuals in Istanbul, along with Qatar." It emphasizes that CIGA appears to spend more on hosting its guests than major Turkish universities do: "Up to today, the center has displayed a generosity surpassing that of even leading Turkish schools, hosting many international academics with trips paid for from start to finish, and has organized international conferences centered on Islamophobia." It is notable that the foreign minister in the new Syrian government of Ahmad Al-Sharaa graduated from this university in 2022, and in 2024 was enrolled in its doctoral program.
Sami Al-Arian, who as noted heads CIGA, is a former professor at the University of South Florida and political activist who was deported to Turkey in 2015 after criminal proceedings found him guilty of links to Palestinian terror groups.
Below are notable excerpts from the webinar, focusing on the "massive" decline of the "empire" of the U.S., why it is "actually a real shift in history," how its "economic warfare against China has already failed," and the "rise of not one, but several, of what the Americans call peer competitors" – including not just China and Russia but also India.
Assoc. Prof. Tarik Cyril Amar, Koc University, Istanbul: "We Are Looking At A Massive Decline Of This American Power"
Prof. Amar: "[I]t's obvious that the United States is an empire. It's not a typical land empire, but it's in many ways quite typical maritime empire, even if it has modern special features as well. But in fact, you could also in my framework here, you could just talk about something like American global power, American hegemony... the American reach, right?...
"We are looking at a massive decline of this American power... [but] how do we know that that decline that we are seeing is special? ... [H]ow do we know that this American decline is not something we could call sort of a cyclical... downturn?
[...]
"Remember that when the current American president, now known as Genocide Joe... came into power a few years ago, a lot of people in the United States and in Europe were saying, America's back. America's back. So there was this idea that [a] blip had occurred. And the blip, of course, was marked by the reign of the terrible bad King Donald Trump...
"[But] I don't think that America has ever been back. I think we're seeing right now that everything is getting much, much worse. And I think we need to think about why this downturn that we have been seeing in our lives is actually a real shift in history.... You see this across two key dimensions."
Prof. Amar: The Period Of "American Unilaterialism" Is Over – "A Lot Of Americans Are Seeing That As Well" – And "The Value Of American Alliances Is Declining"
"And the one of [these dimensions] is what I would call geopolitical or international and the other one is what I would call the domestic, social, cultural. If you want very simply, abroad and at home, right? Abroad we see a very interesting constellation, namely that we are now in a post-post -Cold War world.... marked by what has been called American unilateralism, the idea that only the Americans have the power to influence global politics in the end decisively. That period is over. And a lot of Americans are seeing that as well.
"The second thing is not only is that period over, we are seeing the rise of not one, but several, what the Americans call peer competitors... We have Russia, we have definitely China, more China than Russia in many ways. India, unclear, but certainly not simply an asset for the American empire...
"Now the other thing we are seeing is that the value of American alliances is declining... I would say that the American foreign policy elite was [once] much more intelligent than it is now... [Once] they were smart enough to understand that if you want to run basically a maritime global empire then you must make your allies strong... You need strong partners, they must be under your control, [and] in this sense they are clients. They are not going to have enough power to challenge you or to escape your control but they are also partners... and if you look at recent American policy they have ruined Europe... So that's the geopolitical dimension.
Prof. Amar: "The U.S. Is In Deep Cultural Political Crisis"; "A Lot Of Americans Hate Each Other"
"Very quickly, about the domestic social dimension... the United States is in deep cultural political crisis. We know from political science and polling that polarization is at unprecedented levels... A lot of Americans hate each other...
"It's overspending on geopolitics, on power projections abroad, it's neglecting its infrastructure, it's neglecting its schools, it's neglecting its healthcare – in short, it's neglecting its population. This is an empire whose elite either never fully understood or doesn't want to understand anymore that, to put it very crudely, you cannot run an empire without taking good care of your human capital and they're definitely not doing that."
[...]
Sami Al-Arian, CIGA Director: "The U.S. Basically Manufactured This Ukraine Crisis In Order To Make Sure That NATO Will Stay Relevant"
Al-Arian: "The U.S.'s main concern is to stay as the dominant power in the world. Now, when we talk about the collapse of the order that the U.S. built, it's about the balance of power. Once you have great power competition coming back in place, still when we look at the balance of power it's still in great favor of the United States in [terms of] pure power.
"[The U.S. has] 800 military bases around the world, the U.S. exists everywhere, it has 11 aircraft carriers – China just got one and is building another two, it's not even dominant in its own backyard, and Russia is a very distant third power.
"I think what the U.S. has been trying to do, Trump has shown that the U.S. under certain leadership could actually become – I wouldn't call it isolated but it could pursue a policy that would be to the detriment of the power elites in Washington, and therefore what Biden tried to do was to make sure that Europe will always be in the sphere of the U.S.... I think the U.S. basically manufactured this Ukraine crisis in order to make sure that NATO will stay relevant... Instead of NATO being irrelevant now, NATO is needed more than ever and the U.S. is the dominant power in Europe...
Al-Arian: "The U.S. World Order Could Be On Its Way Out"; When It Is "No Longer The Primary World Leader... It [Will Have] A Lot Of Economic Problems"
"The U.S. world order could be on its way out, but it's in a more nuanced way... [The U.S.] will not destroy its own world order.... I do not believe... I think people sometimes exaggerate what happened inside the United States. The United States had a civil war. That civil war lasted about four years. It was the most vicious war. More people were killed in that war than all other wars, over 650,000, and possibly several million injured.
[...]
"[How would states] secede? By force. There is no mechanism... Now, according to the law, and I'm not making this up, the National Guard at the end is under the control of the commander in chief, not under the control of the governor.
[...]
"I do not discount the fact that at one point, when the U.S. is no longer the primary world leader [and] is no longer leading this world, it [will have] a lot of economic problems. And that will happen when it can no longer print money without consequences. When we reach that point, then, and only then, you could have problems within the states that can basically break the rules and break the Constitution and everything goes."
Prof. Amar: "BRICS Is Important... De-Dollarization Is Important"; I Think "Nuclear Weapons Are "A Real Possibility" – But "Right Now, The Russians Are Actually Ahead" On Conventional Weapons
Amar: "Of course, the BRICS is important. Of course, de-dollarization is important. What has been left out is economic warfare against China. I think economic warfare against China has already failed, at least the first round, and I do call it economic warfare...
"So if we want to talk about tensions between China and the U.S., I do not think it's true that the Chinese want to play nice, and the reason is that the Americans are not playing nice with them...
"Concerning nuclear weapons, let me say very, very carefully, or shortly, why I think it's a real possibility. During the Cold War, we had fewer nuclear weapon states with smaller, not always smaller, sometimes bigger, but with simpler arsenals, right? And we know at least about two major crises where we came extremely close to actual use. One was on the very last day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and it was an accident that was avoided. And the other one was, I think, the Petrovsky incident in the early 1980s. So we should never discount the possibility that in a very tense world, we can go to nuclear in spite of elites not wanting to do it.
[...]
[But] if you look, for example, at Russian military industry shell production and American shell production and European shell production right now, the Russians are actually ahead. And right now, it's not even easy to see how that will change...
"The United States isn't always superior. Yes, the United States has, I think you're right, 11 carrier groups, but you probably know that not all of them are operational all the time, only a few. You also probably know that the development of missile technology and onshore batteries means that we will see a place where these carrier groups will become much less relevant....
"It is true, I agree with you, that the United States asserted itself against Europe. They did. But my point is precisely that by asserting themselves against Europe... they also did great damage to themselves... If an empire maintains itself by weakening some of its strongest clients, that's a very dangerous tendency for the empire."
[...]
Prof. Amar: The United States And NATO Are Actually Not As Powerful Than People Thought As Of March 2022"; The Last Thing Is "The Enormous Burden Of Public Debt In The United States"
"Trump might take the United States to isolationism. He may either destroy NATO directly or he may heavily undermine it. If that were to happen, and I think a Trump presidency is very, very likely now, then again, we could see sudden change. My argument would be that we're already in a period where sudden change is entirely possible. We can no longer assume that the very big data that shows us all the assets that the United States still has, and of course, I'm very aware of them, allow us to predict the future.
"Let me make one last point to give an example. At the beginning of the Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine, February [2022], there was almost unanimous consensus that Russia didn't stand a chance. This time they had gone too far. The so-called sanctions from hell would destroy the economy and ultimately the arsenal of the United States in the hands of the Ukrainians would destroy their military.
"Where are we now? Ukraine. If there is one big lesson, it is that the United States and NATO are actually not as powerful than people thought as of March 2022... Russia has also done much better than expected. So, I would be very careful putting too much stress on all those American powers that are still there. And the other thing we should mention, last one, is of course the enormous burden of public debt in the United States."
