Writers And Politicians In Lebanon And Arab World: Nasrallah's Assassination – A Golden Opportunity For Lebanon To Retake Control Of The Country From Hizbullah

The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah's secretary-general for more than 30 years, in a September 27, 2024 Israeli airstrike is being viewed by anti-resistance-axis politicians and journalists, both inside and outside Lebanon, as a rare historic and "golden opportunity" to remove Hizbullah from the equation and rebuild Lebanon. This opportunity, they stressed, must be seized quickly before the terror organization recovers and "Lebanon is lost forever."

Alongside the joy expressed by Lebanese and Arab writers at the assassination,[1] some politicians and journalists proposed ideas for Lebanon's post-Nasrallah rehabilitation, including: seizing Hizbullah's weapons and placing them solely in the hands of the Lebanese army; implementing international resolutions, among them United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 which prohibits any armed presence besides the Lebanese army and UNIFIL forces south of the Litani River; and implementing the Taif Agreement, signed in October 1989, that ended Lebanon's 1975-1989 civil war. There were also calls to take advantage of Hizbullah's crippling in order to establish a government and elect a president, ending the two-year vacuum that has prevailed since the term of the last president, Michel Aoun, ended in 2022 and the political elements in the country were unable to reach an agreement on a new president. Following Nasrallah's assassination, some proposed that Lebanon declare a unilateral ceasefire and deploy its army along the border with Israel, to ensure implementation of Resolution 1701.

It should be noted that in late September 2024, there were reports of an agreement between Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker and Hizbullah ally Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, head of the interim government. According to this agreement, following an Israel-Hizbullah ceasefire, Lebanon would undertake to implement Resolution 1701 and hold presidential elections. However, contrary to perceptions both within and outside of Lebanon, there is no significant change in Lebanon's official position, and it appears that disagreements between Berri and Mikati remain.[2]

It should also be noted that in the past both Mikati and Berri have declared their commitment to Resolution 1701, while in practice nothing was done to prevent Hizbullah from violating the resolution and deploying its armed forces in the forbidden area.

This report reviews the calls in Lebanon and the Arab world to take advantage of Hizbullah's military and political weakness following the Israeli attacks and the assassination of Nasrallah, in order to rebuilt Lebanon and prevent Hizbullah from regaining its strength.

Lebanese Anti-Hizbullah Politicians And Journalists: Hizbullah Must Be Disarmed, Control Must Be Returned To The State

Several anti-Hizbullah Lebanese politicians urged that the connection between Lebanon and Gaza that was created by Nasrallah be severed, and that the state's authority and sovereignty be restored – inter alia by electing a president and ending the two-year vacuum.

Former Lebanese prime minister (2005-2008) Fouad Siniora, known for his anti-Hizbullah position, restated his view that Lebanon must not be linked to the war in Gaza, and urged Lebanese politicians to take political and diplomatic action. In interviews, Siniora told the Saudi television channels Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath:

"There are those in Lebanon who seek to preserve the linkage between the front in Lebanon and the front in Gaza. Nothing remains in Gaza that would justify this linkage. Also, Lebanon should not be linked to Gaza in accordance with decisions made by others [i.e. not the Lebanese]. The decision must be Lebanese... A few days ago, I urged the government of Lebanon to declare its position in a clear and honest manner, and to disconnect the Lebanese front from the front in Gaza, and I demanded an immediate ceasefire as well as a government commitment to the implementation of [UNSC] Resolution 1701, as well as the other relevant Security Council resolutions. I also urged the Speaker of the Parliament to convene the Parliament. It is unacceptable that the Parliament has not managed to convene for over a year to express Lebanon's position... and to elect a president...

"Lebanon must be saved... The Lebanese state must assume responsibility; to date, Hizbullah is the one that has acted, but it takes no responsibility [for its actions]. The state must seize the reins and not leave them in the hands of others... It is inconceivable that there will be elements that continue to set out on adventures that do not benefit Iran – on the contrary...

"I hope Hizbullah will realize that its actions have brought no benefit, especially in light of the proven fact that the expectation of help from Iran is not materializing, and that all the talk about the axis of resistance and about how all the fronts assist each other [has proven untrue], and that it turns out emerges that Iran does not intend to join a military campaign... The time has come to stop the gambling and the nonsensical adventures..."[3]

In a September 30 statement, the Lebanese Christian organization Saydat Al-Jabal Association, which is known to oppose Hizbullah, said: "The first action to be taken to save Lebanon today is to disconnect Lebanon from Gaza... because Lebanon's interests supersede every other consideration." The association urged Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri and interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati to declare "a clear position according to which Lebanon's interests supersede those of every element, political party, group, or other country." It continued: "A new president must be elected immediately in accordance with the constitution and a government must be established that can achieve a ceasefire and implement the international resolutions... Hizbullah persists in leading Lebanon to destruction, because linking Lebanon to Gaza serves Israel['s interests] and provides [it with] justification for expanding the war and undertaking a ground invasion into Lebanon."[4]

Others called for disarming Hizbullah. For instance, Bahaa Al-Hariri, son of the late Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005, called for embracing Lebanon's Shi'ite community and bringing it back "into the fold of the state, of which it is an inseparable part." He added: "What is happening now in Lebanon proves that the only choice is the state and its institutions. Hizbullah must surrender its weapons to the state and undertake [to follow] to international law, the international resolutions, and the Taif Agreement, including all its clauses. We Lebanese must start formulating a clear action plan for the next stage, in order to restore the state and its authority, decision-making and security, and the protection of all its lands and citizens..."[5]

Similar sentiments were expressed on social media by Lebanese journalists and political activists. Lebanese X user Raymond Hakim, known for his opposition to Hizbullah, wrote that disarming Hizbullah and imposing the state's authority is crucial for the state's success: "Nothing will change unless the international resolutions are implemented, the militias are divested of their illegal weapons and the Lebanese army enforces control over every inch of Lebanese soil..."[6]

Lebanese journalist and television presenter Maria Ma'alouf urged the Lebanese army to purge its ranks of Hizbullah members. The armed forces, she wrote, "must take back the reins and restore their honor, that has been trampled by Nasrallah and by [Hizbullah Liaison and Coordination Unit commander] Wafiq Safa. The army's [top] commander must pound on the table and say, 'That's my prerogative,' and demand that Hizbullah hand over its weapons. The army can protect Lebanon now, after the demise of the head of the dragon [i.e. Nasrallah] and its security arm, represented by Ali Karaki [commander of Hizbullah's southern front]. What are the army and the intelligence headquarters waiting for [to start] purging the establishment of people who follow Karaki's orders? We have had enough."[7]

Journalists Outside Lebanon: Nasrallah's Assassination Is A Historic Opportunity To Restore The Authority And Sovereignty Of The State Of Lebanon

Political activists and journalists outside Lebanon viewed Nasrallah's assassination as a golden opportunity to rehabilitate Lebanon, and there were even those who expressed gratitude to Israel. Posting on his X account, Saudi writer Fahd Deepaji shared a cartoon depicting Nasrallah's assassination as a new page in Lebanon's history, and a transition from the destructive phase in "Hizbullah's shadow" to a luminous new phase of "Lebanon without Hizbullah." Above the cartoon, he wrote: "Just so."[8]

Saudi journalist Abdullah Bin Bjad Al-Otaibi wrote: "The Lebanese people have a right to see Lebanon regain its status as a true, sovereign state. The Lebanese army and political forces have a historic opportunity to restore the state's power and its exclusive right to bear arms and make decisions regarding war and peace. Historic opportunities do not recur. History immortalizes leaders who fulfill the people's dreams of independence, sovereignty, stability, security and development."[9]

Egyptian liberal Dalia Ziada wrote in English: "The Day After in Lebanon is what really matters! Hassan Nasrallah and his Hizbullah fellows are only [an] Iran-sponsored disposable militia that have [sic] been easily smashed by Israel when they made too much noise. What matters now is the future of Lebanon and the wellbeing of the Lebanese people… Let's… focus on the day after in Lebanon. We have an excellent opportunity now (thanks to Israel's – not Arab – efforts) to make Lebanon great again. Let's use it!"[10]

Moroccan security commentator Abd Al-Hak Al-Snaibi wrote: "The biggest winner in this unequal war is Lebanon itself, provided it seizes the opportunity to restore [its control] over the state. If it fails to do so, Lebanon will be lost forever."[11]

In her column in the Saudi magazine Al-Majalla, Syrian journalist Alia Mansour urged Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire, to commit to implementing UN Resolution 1701, to deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces along the country's entire border with Israel, and to hold presidential elections. She wrote, "...Today, Lebanon pays the price of the policies and positions toward Arab countries that Hizbullah has held for years. However, despite this, today Lebanon and the Hizbullah supporters have a golden opportunity to emerge from the harsh blow they received and understand that they are part of the Lebanese people, that it is only the state that can defend itself, and that a hundred thousand rockets didn't protect even one child or Hassan Nasrallah and his comrades... [They must realize] that the assistance campaign [for Gaza that was declared by Nasrallah] was just a bargaining chip in the Iranian negotiations. Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri and interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati must, with the support of the senior politicians, declare a unilateral ceasefire and commit to the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces along the border – the entire border – and then call for presidential elections.

"Berri must be honest with the Shi'ites and especially with the Hizbullah public, and urge them to return to Lebanon. The first condition for this is to hand the weapons over to the state. The weapons did not protect them – rather, they were concealed beneath their homes, and caused the killing of their children, and caused disasters to befall them and Lebanon…

"It may be that today's war... will be an opportunity to return to honest dialogue that will save Lebanon and all the Lebanese from internal and external wars, and stop the bloodshed for the sake of others' [interests], first and foremost the spilling of the blood of the Hizbullah supporters. For Assad's Syria [on whose side they fought during the civil war] did not return the favor, and Iran did not protect them either. Everyone must realize that the future of the Lebanese is formed in Beirut – not in Tehran, not in Damascus, not in Tel Aviv, not in Gaza, and not anywhere else."[12]

Saudi writer Mustafa Al-Na'ami posted on his X account: "If the Lebanese army does not act to restore the state by imposing its control over all of Lebanon's territory, seizing the Iranian weapons that remain in the Lebanese [Hizbullah Beirut stronghold] Dahieh, and imposing security, there will never be another opportunity to restore the Lebanese state."[13]

A New Government Must Be Established, A Strong State Must Be Created

Along with calls to divest Hizbullah of its weapons, there were writers and journalists who urged the exploitation of Hizbullah's crippling on a political level as well, by shaking off its control of the political system, establishing a unity government, and electing a president, so as to facilitate the creation of a strong political establishment.

Lebanese jurist Mona Al-Dahdah Zouein, who writes a column for the Saudi daily Okaz, called for reconsidering the national priorities as part of an inclusive national dialogue, and to implement all the clauses of the Taif Agreement. This agreement, she said, could have prevented the current crisis, which was caused by Hizbullah's taking control of the decision-making without the consent of the Lebanese government, even without coordinating with it.

She wrote: "True victory is achieved only when the good of the homeland and the people is placed above every other consideration. This requires a comprehensive national dialogue, encompassing every part of Lebanese society, so as to formulate a future that will meet the aspirations of the people and preserve the sovereignty of the state.

"Perhaps the key to a better future for Lebanon lies in reorganizing the political arena within the framework of the state and its institutions. This requires implementing all the provisions of the Lebanese constitution known as the Taif Agreement. Had these reforms been implemented 35 years ago, the current crises could have been avoided."

Among the most important provisions that have not been implemented, she said, is "the one calling to extend the state's sovereignty over all of Lebanon's territory – which requires dismantling all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias and placing their weapons in the hands of the state – as well as the clause calling to pass a new parliamentary election law that abolishes the sectarian regime..."

Zouein concluded by saying: "Lebanon is greater than any party or organization, and the future of the country depends on the ability of the Lebanese to overcome their disagreements and establish a state that protects their interests and fulfills their aspirations. The most important lesson to be learned from the current crisis may be that true victory lies in establishing a strong state..."[14]

Khaled Al-Suleiman, also a columnist for the Okaz daily, wrote: "Lebanon now has the opportunity to put an end to the era of Hizbullah and all its 'men.' Allowing [this organization] to recover and continue dominating Lebanon means leaving Lebanon trapped in its [Hizbullah's] crises.

"Furthermore, the national duty now requires the convening of the Lebanese parliament as soon as possible and for it to rise above the narrow debates that have become trivial in light of the earthquake that has struck Lebanon – in order to elect a president who will earn the trust of the Lebanese people and will form a national government that will gain the confidence of the international community. This is necessary for Lebanon to restore its natural status among the world's nations, after Nasrallah forced it to move along the path of subservience to Iran.

"Now is a golden opportunity to achieve the change for which all Lebanese and all of Lebanon's friends have been yearning. Lebanon will be greatly changed if it manages to free itself from Hizbullah's control, and may even reconfigure its political sector..."[15]

Saudi writer Mustafa Al-Na'ami urged the commander-in-chief of the Lebanese army to establish an emergency government, calling on the leaders of the political parties to "rise above their sectarian [interests] in order to restore peace and coexistence in Lebanon." In another post, he called for dismissing the current generation of leaders and for forming a new leadership, stating: "Lebanon must be purged of the so-called present leaders. They are a large part of its problems. They are the ones who established sectarianism and acted and fought to tear [Lebanon] apart."[16]

Okaz columnist Hani Al-Zahiri even called for international forces to intervene in Lebanon and to put their allies in power, so as to safeguard their interests. He wrote on his personal X account: "...It is time for a new [Lebanese] regime. The state must forcibly and firmly impose its authority and rule. Otherwise, it will be hijacked in favor of new parties or sects. There is no avoiding soft intervention by interest-driven international forces that will forcibly place their allies in power in Lebanon, strengthen their [the allies'] position, and safeguard their interests [those of the international forces] before the political pie is divided. This is a critical phase, and whoever controls it will control the country in the coming years."[17]