On September 10, 2022, the Chinese opposition website Abolouwang.com published an article stating that Chinese President Xi Jinping had, in advance of the 20th CCP National Congress that is scheduled to take place on October 16, suddenly appointed Wang Qiang as the new commander of the Northern Theater Command. The article noted that this "is a major change within the ranks of the CCP armed forces."
The article went on to state that at the congress, top military leaders close to Xi would be appointed members of the Central Military Commission, among them He Weidong, currently the commander of the Eastern Theater Command and described as Xi's "confidant" and Zhong Shaojun, chairman of the Central Military Commission and Xi's longtime political aide.
Below is the article:[1]
(Source: Abolouwang.com)
'Xi Once Again Showed His Military Power Before The 20th National Congress Of The Party'
"On September 8, Wang Qiang (王强), the new Commander of the Northern Theater Command of the CCP, was promoted to a full general, and Xi Jinping held a rare promotion ceremony for him alone. While Xi Jinping once again showed his military power before the 20th National Congress of the Party, the candidates for the new Central Military Commission also began to emerge. Li Qiaoming (李桥铭), who has just stepped down as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, is likely to be one of them. The other key figure should be He Weidong (何卫东), who stepped down as the Commander of the Eastern Theater Command in January this year. And another one is Xu Qiling (徐起零), who only served as the Commander of the Western Theater Command for two months in 2021.
"Switching the Commander of the Northern Theater Command at a Critical Time
"Just over a month before the 20th National Congress of the CCP, Xi Jinping suddenly switched the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, it is a major change within the ranks of the CCP armed forces. Wang Qiang, the new Commander of the Northern Theater Command, had an opportunity for promotion to a full general, and Xi Jinping gave him the title in time. Wang Qiang is also a post-60s serviceman. In 2018, he was promoted as the Deputy Commander of the Western Theater Command. In 2020, he served as the Air Force Commander of the Western Theater Command as well. In September 2022, he was promoted as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, which is a promotion to a different command typical of the CCP armed forces that is to prevent developing one's inner circles while serving as the top commander.
"Li Qiaoming, who has just stepped down as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, is even more prominent. He was promoted to the Commander of the Northern Theater Command in 2017 and was the first post-60s theater commander at that time. On October 1, 2019, at the Tiananmen Square military parade in Beijing, Li Qiaoming led the battle flag team, showing that he was highly valued by Xi Jinping. Two months later, he was promoted to a full general. He has served as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command for 5 years and is 61 years old this year. He is likely to enter the Central Military Commission at the 20th National Congress of the Party and may become one of the vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission.
"Li Qiaoming is also a member of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. If he becomes the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission at the 20th National Congress, he should also enter the Politburo.
"The two current vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission, Xu Qiliang (许其亮) and Zhang Youxia (张又侠), are 72 years old and should retire at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, and will also give up their positions as members of the Politburo. Before the 20th National Congress of the Party, Li Qiaoming suddenly stepped down as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, his future is less likely to be in trouble, and more likely to get ready for being promoted to a member of the Central Military Commission at the 20th National Congress of the Party. As one of the chief officers of the five theaters, he is more likely to become a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.
"Another likely candidate for a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission should be He Weidong, who stepped down as the Commander of the Eastern Theater Command in last January.
'He Weidong Is Considered The Top Candidate For The Vice Chairman Of The CCP 20th National Congress'
"He Weidong Is One of Xi Jinping's Confidants
"He Weidong is 65 years old this year and should retire from the post of the Commander of the Eastern Theater Command, but it is said that he has been transferred to the Central Military Commission after leaving office. The fact that He Weidong could serve as the most important Commander of the Eastern Theater Command shows that he is obviously deeply trusted by Xi Jinping. He Weidong was originated from the 31st Army and has a deep and long relationship with Xi Jinping.
"From 1985 to 2002, Xi Jinping was an official in Fujian. In 1991, Unit 73121 under the 31st Army moved into Fuzhou City. Xi Jinping was the Secretary of the Fuzhou Municipal Party Committee at the time. He not only tried his best to help solving the household registration issues of military family members and children, but also helped raising funds for the newly built combat command center. It is said that Xi Jinping visited the 31st Army with gifts 13 times.
"After Xi Jinping became the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, the former top officers of the 31st Army have been frequently promoted to key positions. Xi Jinping should have long regarded the 31st Army as Xi's own. He Weidong used to be the Deputy Commander of the 31st Army, and was promoted to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Nanjing Military Region in January 2013. In July of that year, he was promoted once again to the Commander of the Jiangsu Provincial Military Region. In 2014, he became the Commander of the Shanghai Garrison Region. In 2015, he was promoted to the Director of the Political Department of the Nanjing Military Region, and he was also a member of the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee at the same time.
"After the military reform in 2016, He Weidong became the Deputy Commander of the Western Theater Command. In 2017, he was promoted to lieutenant general. In 2019, the 63-year-old He Weidong should retire according to the rank of deputy commander of a theater command, but he was immediately promoted to the Commander of the Eastern Theater Command and promoted to a full general. The Eastern Theater should be the most important one of the five theaters of the CCP, responsible for the operations in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea, and it shows that how important Xi Jinping considers him to be.
"It is likely that 65-year-old He Weidong did not retire after stepping down as the Commander of the Eastern Theater Command in January this year, but was transferred to the Central Military Commission ahead of promotion to familiarize himself with the work. If He Weidong becomes the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and enters the Politburo of the Communist Party, being promoted to the level of a deputy national leader, he will avoid retiring at the age of 65. However, he is not yet a member of the Central Committee of the Party. If he becomes a member of the Politburo at the 20th National Congress of the Party, it will be an exceptional promotion.
"He Weidong is considered the top candidate for the Vice Chairman of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, and Xi Jinping prepared for it eight months in advance. Li Qiaoming, who just stepped down as the Commander of the Northern Theater Command, is probably the second candidate. The chief officers of other theaters have less seniority and are hard to participate in the competition. Although the chief officers of the major services are also at the rank of full general, their experience is relatively simple, and most of them are newly appointed, and there is almost no chance of being promoted again.
Xi's Former Chief Secretary May 'Become A Member Of The Central Military Commission At The 20th National Congress Of The Party'
"Possible Candidates for Other Members of the Central Military Commission
"In June 2021, Xu Qiling was promoted to the Commander of the Western Theater Command, replacing Zhang Xudong (张旭东), who had only served for half a year. However, two months later, Xu Qiling stepped down, which has sparked speculation that he may have run into trouble. Zhang Xudong is said to be unable to work due to illness and died in 2021. Nevertheless, it seems that Xu Qiling did not ran into any trouble.
"After the CCP's military reform in 2016, Xu Qiling served as the Deputy Commander of the Army of the Central Theater Command. In 2017, he served as the Commander of the 79th Group Army. In 2018, he was promoted to the Commander of the Army of the Eastern Theater Command. In 2020, he was transferred to be the Commander of the Army of the Western Theater Command. In June, 2021, he was promoted to the Commander of the Western Theater Command and promoted to a full general, and should have gained the trust of Xi Jinping. Two months later, Xu Qiling stepped down as the Commander of the Western Theater Command, and was later confirmed to be transferred to the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission.
"If this is the actual arrangement, Xu Qiling, 60 years old this year, is likely to become a member of the Central Military Commission at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, and will succeed Li Zuocheng (李作成), the current Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, who is about to be 69 years old. The two-month experience as the chief officer of the Western Theater Command is probably essential for Xu Qiling, and it is also an opportunity for him to be promoted to a full general. There are relatively few people who can compete with him now.
"The current Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe (魏凤和) is 68 years old this year and should retire accordingly. Although the Chinese Defense Minister is actually more like an external liaison officer of the military, he is also a member of the Central Military Commission.
"Zhong Shaojun (钟绍军), the current Director of the General Office of the Central Military Commission, has been Xi Jinping's chief secretary, serving Xi in Zhejiang, Shanghai, and after Xi was transferred to the Central Committee of the Party. Zhong become the Director of the General Office of the Central Military Commission and was promoted to lieutenant general in 2019.
"Xi Jinping is very likely to arrange Zhong Shaojun to become a member of the Central Military Commission at the 20th National Congress of the Party, though it will be too far-fetched to let him succeed the Defense Minister, because after all, he has no experience in commanding troops, and if he goes abroad, he may become a laughingstock of foreign militaries. If Zhong Shaojun wants to become a member of the Central Military Commission, it is more likely for him to replace the current member of the Central Military Commission who is in charge of political work, Miao Hua (苗华), who is about to be 67 years old. Miao Hua also serves as the Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission.
'The Members Of The CCP Central Military Commission To Be Elected At The 20th National Congress… Are Likely To Be Mainly Officers Who Are Over 60'
"Zhong Shaojun may also be able to replace the 64-year-old Zhang Shengmin (张升民), the Secretary of the Central Military Commission's Disciplinary Committee and the last member of the Central Military Commission. However, it is possible that Zhang Shengmin will continue to serve.
"If Zhong Shaojun becomes the member, unless the number of members of the Central Military Commission increases, there may only be at most one position for the military's political officers to compete for, and it depends on who will mostly capable to show his loyalty. In contrast, a nominal Minister of Defense has no real power and is less likely to be corrupt and receive tribute, and may not be as powerful as a general in a service or in theater, therefore there should not be many people who are interested.
"Li Shangfu (李尚福), the current Minister of Equipment Development of the Central Military Commission, 64 years old this year, is capable to succeed, too, but is unable to be promoted to the Defense Minister. In 2018, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions against Li Shangfu for CCP's purchase of Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 surface-to-air missiles from Russia. Li Shangfu can't enter the United States, and he probably won't be willing to give up the profitable position in the Equipment Development Department easily.
"The members of the CCP Central Military Commission to be elected at the 20th National Congress of the Party are likely to be mainly officers who are over 60, which also means that the last batch of officers who ever participated in the border war against Vietnam will all retire, and the current CCP military officers basically have no actual combat experiences, and they are probably only capable of writing political propaganda. Of course, the standard for their promotion is not military talent and ability, but whether they are loyal to Xi Jinping. They may not be able to fight in war, but they must be capable of buttering up. This is also a true picture of the CCP armed forces."
[1] Aboluowang.com/2022/0910/1800906.html, September 10, 2022.
