Following Russia's 'Oreshnik' Missile Strike On Ukrainian Aerospace Plant, Pro-War Russian Telegram Channels Call For Escalation, 'Real War' With The West

Against a background of talks about a ceasefire with Ukraine, hostilities themselves continue to escalate. Reports are emerging about the participation of North Korean troops in the war, fighting for Russia, together with Yemeni Houthis. On November 21, 2024, the Kremlin struck the Pivdenmash plant – an aerospace manufacturer - in Dnipro, Ukraine, with a hyper-air ballistic Oreshnik missile. Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed his nation, proclaiming that the strike came as a response to attacks by Western weapons on Russia. This, however, didn't stop the strikes in Russian territory, and war supporters demand further action.

On November 21, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a special address to the nation, focused on the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) strikes within Russian territory.[1] Putin stated that Russian Army conducted a test "in combat conditions" of a non-nuclear hypersonic medium-range missile system, the "Oreshnik," which struck a state-owned aerospace manufacturing facility, the Pivdenmash plant,[2] in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The Russian president claimed the test had been successful. He added that it was conducted "in response to the aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia." Putin also elaborated on the missile's tactical characteristics, noting the missile's attack speed of Mach 10, and stressed that there are no means of countering such weapons today. [3]

President Putin claimed that Oreshnik was one of Russia's newest medium-range missile systems. However, various experts counter that the missile that struck Dnipro was a modification of the RS-26 Rubezh missile, which  was developed in the 2010s but never went into serial production.[4]

Screenshot of the post on X (formerly Twitter) by the former president of Russia and Deputy Chair of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, showing the impact of the Oreshnik ballistic missile attack.[5]

This demonstration did not serve as a deterrent, however. On November 23, the Russian Defense ministry reported[6] more strikes had hit from the U.S.-made ATACMS missiles on Kursk Oblast in Russia.

The Kremlin first asserted that the Oreshnik missile served as an effective deterrent. Yet after the strike, reports appeared[7] that the American side had been warned about the missile launch in advance. This caused a commotion among the public. Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov initially claimed that Russia had not sent advance notice to the United States and other countries regarding the test of the Oreshnik missile system because "Russia has no such commitment in relation to medium-range missiles."[8] However, an hour later, the press secretary stated that Moscow had indeed warned the Americans about the launch through the Russian National Center for Nuclear Hazard Reduction - about 30 minutes before the launch.[9] In addition, on November 26, Reuters media reported[10] (quoting sources in Ukraine) that the Russian ballistic missile had carried warheads without explosives.

Reactions to the launch of the "new" medium-range missile were varied. Some far-right groups that support the war consider the Kremlin's position towards the West to be too weak - essentially impotent - and call for "real war" and further escalation of hostilities.

One of the most ardent supporters of the hostilities in Ukraine is the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM). On its Telegram account, RIM criticized[11] the low deterrence effect from the Oreshnik missile strike, and the indecisiveness of the Kremlin. RIM called for further escalation. The post was mockingly titled: "Putin's mouthpiece Peskov has once again exposed the old man [i.e., Vladimir Putin]." RIM notes the warning the U.S. received before the launch and argues that Washington is waging war against Moscow "for real," while the Putin regime was only "pretending to be at war":

"The launches of all sorts of 'Oreshniks' not only left no impression on the Americans, which they were quick to point out, but did not impress anyone at all, including the Russian people, who are watching the hands of the Kremlin swindlers with utter bewilderment," states the RIM Telegram channel. The group provides its vision of a 'real' confrontation with the West: a supply of missiles and military specialists to the Houthis, sabotage on Western military bases (RIM suggests "by the hands of European patriots, naturally") and the downing of reconnaissance aircraft that penetrate Russian airspace.

A screenshot of the RIM Telegram channel post of November 23 dedicated to the Oreshnik strike on the city of Dnipro. The group notes Putin's "celestial" rating of 87%, mockingly noting that the president would soon break the record of the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu on the eve of his downfall.[12]

A popular analytical Telegram channel is "Voennii Osvedomitel" ("Military Informant"). The channel has more than 615,000 subscribers – many of whom show their displeasure with the Kremlin's indecisiveness in escalating the war.

On November 28, at the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Kazakhstan, President Putin announced that the Russian General Staff and the Ministry of Defense were selecting targets on Ukrainian territory for future Oreshnik launches, including "the decision-making centers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kyiv."[13] The channel, commenting on the president's remarks, wrote: "In another warning statement by Vladimir Putin, [strikes on] 'decision-making centers' in Kyiv were once again mentioned. [The statement], however, failed to mention with a word or two the real decision-making centers: in Western countries. And that is the key problem with everything that is going on." The channel argues that strikes on Ukrainian territory have no negative impact on the countries of the West. "The enemy is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainian army, which receives equipment, weapons, ammunition and missiles from [the West] ... We do not have our own comparable, controlled, puppet fighting with the West, to which we could supply missiles and pretend that we have nothing to do with their strikes." The post then laments the futility of attempts to frighten the residents of Western cities: "Alas, but now our threats to bomb this or that target in Kyiv can only scare the residents of Kyiv, but not the people of Paris, Berlin or Warsaw." [14]

A screenshot of the November 28 post by the "Voennii Osvedomitel" (Military Informant) Telegram channel concerning possible future Oreshnik missile strikes on Ukraine.[15]

The authorities' stance amid ongoing attacks on Russian territory by Western weapons was also criticized by the ultra-right Telegram channel of Vladislav Pozdnyakov, who has more than 680,000 subscribers.[16] He wrote: "This is already some kind of clowning. All bullshit and absolutely ZERO action. Even the 'Oreshnik' turned out to be another puff of the cheeks." Similarly, the Telegram channel of the ultra-right Christian Orthodox "Sorok Sorokov" movement called for a strike on the United States with the new ballistic missile: "The American occupiers must answer for everything! For what they do on Russian soil, [even] ten 'Oreshnik' missiles are not enough for them."[17] The nationalist warmongering "TopaZ Speaking [ESP]" Telegram channel, managed by the Russian serviceman Yevgeny Rasskazov, with 148,000 subscribers, went even further: "Want to scare Americans? Start killing Americans, not their 'meat' (…) If you are afraid to kill Americans when Americans kill you, then you have already lost this war. Because they are not afraid to strike our territory with their missiles."[18]

There were, however, laudatory comments as well. For example, the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Kirill of Moscow, called the Oreshnik missile system a "stop-machine" and thanked Russian scientists, who "create incredible weapons."[19]

The Kremlin's rhetoric and warmongering narratives may backfire, resulting in disenchantment among the most invested people in Russian society – those who are willing to continue the hostilities "until Victory." Continuation of hostilities amid looming economic difficulties, coupled with a loss of confidence in the Russian government, could lead to a further deterioration of state power.