Lebanese Celebrate Assad's Fall: It's Another Step Toward The Collapse Of The Resistance Axis And A Lesson For Hizbullah

The fall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria on December 8, 2024, following a short military campaign by the Syrian opposition factions led by Ahmed Al-Shara', known as Abu Muhammad  Al-Joulani, the leader of the Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) organization, was received with joy and relief not only in Syria but also in the neighboring country, Lebanon. When news of the rebels' arrival in Damascus and of Assad's flight became known, Lebanese throughout the country took to the streets to celebrate the event with cries of joy and the distribution of sweets.

While congratulating the Syrian people on their "independence day" and "the victory of justice," many Lebanese politicians, media figures, and citizens also saw the fall of the Assad regime  as a victory for Lebanon. This is unsurprising, given that for many years the Syrian regime did as it pleased in Lebanon: its forces were deployed throughout the country and terrorized the Lebanese sectors that opposed its presence, including through kidnappings, arrests and the assassination of opponents, most famously Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. In 2004, the Syrian regime was forced to withdraw its forces from Lebanon following UN Security Council Resolution 1559. However, it attempted to gradually reimpose its patronage over the country, inter alia with the help of its allies there, chief of them Hizbullah.[1]

Lebanese politicians and media figures known for opposing the resistance axis led by Iran, Hizbullah, and Syria pointed to the various repercussions of this development: on the power dynamics within Lebanon, on Lebanon's bilateral relations with Syria and on the resistance axis. They argued that the fall of the Syrian regime, an ally of Hizbullah, would further undermine the status of this organization, which has already suffered a defeat in its campaign against Israel. They also called for changing the character of the relations between Syria and Lebanon by abolishing joint mechanisms and agreements signed between them over the years, which effectively cemented Syria's patronage over Lebanon. Additionally, many saw the fall of the Syrian regime as another step in the domino-like collapse of the Iran-led resistance axis, following the severe blows sustained by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Assad's opponents in Lebanon dismissed the concerns regarding the rise of extremist Islamist elements in Syria, stating that any alternative is better than the Assad regime. Some even contacted Al-Joulani and expressed hope to establish relations with the new Syrian regime under his rule. 

Celebrations in Lebanon following the fall of the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria (Image: Ar.pressbee.net/ December 8, 2024)

This report reviews the reactions to the fall of the Assad regime among opponents of this regime in Lebanon.

Messages Congratulating The Syrian And Lebanese Peoples On "The Victory Of Justice"

Senior politicians and media figures in Lebanon congratulated the Syrian people on the downfall of the Assad regime and urged them to establish democracy in Syria.  The fall of this regime, they said, heralds justice and a better future not only for the Syrians but also for the Lebanese people, some of whose leaders were assassinated by this regime for opposing its presence in their land. The Al-Mustaqbal movement, headed by former Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Al-Hariri, known for its opposition to the Assad regime, congratulated the Syrian people on the fact that "justice has  defeated injustice, [a goal] for which they always called and for the sake of which they sacrificed many lives… and which culminated in the free people declaring the collapse of the tyrannical regime…" The statement added: "We congratulate the Syrian people on [attaining] the freedom they deserve and on which they insisted… We will continue to stand with the Syrian people, as we did from the start despite the tyranny of the [Assad] regime, that was [also] directed at us… Today the Syrian people is witnessing the victory of its freedom and honor… These developments are good news for Syria and Lebanon, and increase the hope [to see] an interim stage in which the Syrian people will regain its stolen land…"[2]

A statement issued by Sa'ad Al-Hariri said: "I have been waiting for this day since that black night [on which my father, Rafic Hariri, was assassinated]… I was so happy to see you in Syria loudly applauding [the arrival of] freedom, which liberated [the country] from its large prison. Now you are celebrating the fall of the dictator who struck terror in the hearts of Syrians and Lebanese alike… the regime that peddled in [the issue of] Palestine for over half a century, sold the Golan for cheap and sold itself to whoever paid it or defended it from its own people…" Al-Hariri expressed hope that Syria would be the homeland and state for all Syrians.[3]

Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt wrote on his X account: "At last, after a long wait, signs of freedom have appeared in Syria."[4] Several days later it was reported that Jumblatt had spoken on the phone with HTS leader Al-Shara' and congratulated him on his victory, and that the two had agreed to meet in Damascus "soon."[5]

During celebrations in the town of Ma'arab, a stronghold of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party, the party's leader, Samir Geagea, described Assad's fall as "God's will" and congratulated both the Syrian people and the Lebanese people on the victory of justice. Geagea stressed that he had believed in the Syrian revolution from the start, continued to believe in it even when it waned and when Arab and European countries began to renew their diplomatic relations with the regime, and persisted in this belief “until we saw our dream come true.” He added: "This is the day of Bachir Gemayel, whose killers were sent [by the Assad regime] and were regarded [by this regime] as heroes.[6] The time has come for justice not only in Syria but also in Lebanon... This is the day of Tripoli and all our martyrs who were killed by Assad's forces... This is the day of the free people in Syria who suffered greatly under the Syrian regime and who fought for 55 years. Many of them were killed or migrated from their homes and homeland because they could not live under this regime." Geagea urged Lebanese people who emigrated to return to their country now that "hope has returned and your efforts and presence are needed [here]."[7]

Lebanese politician and journalist May Shidiac, a former government minister and MP on behalf of Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces Party, who survived an assassination attempt in 2005, wrote on her X account: "After 50 years of Ba'ath rule, the Assad regime has fallen. How exciting. Thank you, God, for letting me live to see this day: the Bashar Al-Assad regime has ceased to exist. The era of violence, arrogance and reliance on the [resistance] axis against the people is over. Congratulations to the Syrian people and to all the Lebanese who suffered the violence of this regime. #finito_la_musica #game_over."[8]

Calls In Lebanon To Try Former Assad Regime Officials, Establish New Relations With Syria

Alongside the joy over the fall of Syria’s tyrannical Assad regime, there have also been calls to use this opportunity to remove any remnants of Syria’s patronage over Lebanon – including monuments, branches of Syrian political parties, and treaties and mechanisms that entrenched this  patronage – and to try former officials of the Assad regime for the assassination of Lebanese officials.

Lebanese MP Samy Gemayel, leader of the Christian Phalange (Kataeb) party, said at a December 12, 2024 press conference: "For 30 years, there have been dysfunctional ties and unfair agreements [between Syria and Lebanon], and there was no introspection [on the part of the Syrian regime] regarding what took place during this period of time… We demand that Habib Shartouni [who assassinated Samy Gemayel's uncle, Lebanese President-elect Bachir Gemayel, in 1982] be punished, and that the assassinations [of Lebanese figures] be investigated. Fair compensation must be paid to Lebanese who were incarcerated in Syrian prisons and to the families of the victims who died during torture… The Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council,[9] its General Secretariat, and its oversight and coordination body must be dismantled. Ties between the two countries must be handled by the official embassies and in accordance with the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. Parallel channels outside of the recognized constitutional and diplomatic framework must be avoided, and the Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination must be abolished, alongside the Defense and Security Agreement between [Syria and Lebanon]."

Gemayel also urged to take legal measures against former Assad regime officials who have found shelter in Lebanon, and to hold them to account for their crimes against the Lebanese nation. In addition, he called to remove all statues and monuments in Lebanon that honor Hafez Al-Assad and his family, and to rename streets and squares whose present names are associated with the Assad regime. He also emphasized the need to demarcate the land border between the two countries.[10]

Similar calls were made in an article published by Camille Mourani, of the Lebanese National Bloc Party. He exhorted the Lebanese government to take the following measures: establish control of the borders and the border crossings; prevent former Syrian regime officials and security personnel from entering Lebanon; arrest all former Syrian regime officials who are present in Lebanon and are wanted for “regular or political” crimes; remove any symbols of the Assad regime that are still present on roads and in cities; dismantle the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, and abolish the various agreements, authorized during the Syrian "occupation" of Lebanon, that have undermined Lebanon’s rights; issue a joint statement by both countries promising to protect each other’s sovereignty and refrain from intervening in each other’s affairs; establish political relations by means of official institutions, and demarcate the land and maritime borders. In addition, Mourani called on the new Syrian regime to apologize to the Lebanese people for the crimes of the Assad regime and to pay “even symbolic” compensation for the previous period. At the same time, he wrote that Lebanon must apologize to the Syrian people for Hizbullah’s involvement in defending the Assad regime.

Moreover, Mourani urged the Lebanese government to collect all weapons of the Palestinian groups loyal to the Assad regime outside of the Palestinian refugee camps, and to address the issue of Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails.[11]

Writing on X, Lebanese journalist Rami Na'im called on Lebanon’s security agencies "to shut down the Syrian embassy in Lebanon and arrest the ambassador and all the security officials, as a lesson to all those who think it permissible to do as they please in Lebanon and to kill Lebanese people…" In another post, he wrote: "In order to prevent a civil war in Lebanon, the Lebanese state must raid all the offices of non-Lebanese parties in the country – such as the Ba’ath Party and the Syrian [Social] Nationalist Party – and remove photos of Bashar Al-Assad and shut down these offices. These parties participated in crimes against the Lebanese people during the era of the [former] Syrian regime, and today they threaten Lebanon's peace. If the security agencies do not take action, this might [be construed as] permission for the masses to take action, which might lead to civil war. Thanks very much to the Syrian revolution for liberating Lebanon from the entire [resistance] axis."[12]

Nawal Berro, a columnist for the Lebanese daily Nida Al-Watan, known for its opposition to the Assad regime, called on the Lebanese government “to remove all branches of the Syrian regime that still remain” in the country, including the branches of the Syrian Ba’ath Party, "so we can say that the era of Syrian occupation, in all its forms, is over."[13]

It should be mentioned that some measures of this kind have already been taken. For instance, on December 13 the Lebanese daily Al-Nahar reported that, in the village of Tikrit in northern Lebanon, Lebanese youth “who support the Syrian opposition” destroyed a monument commemorating Ghazi Taleb, a fighter from the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and replaced it with the flag of the Syrian revolution.[14]

Hizbullah Required To Examine Its Path And Surrender Its Weapons To The State

Lebanese opponents of the Syrian regime also took the opportunity of the regime’s collapse to attack its allies in Lebanon, chief of them Hizbullah, and called on this organization to disarm. During celebrations of Assad's downfall in Beirut, MP Nadim Gemayel, of the Christian Kataeb Party, said: "Just as Hizbullah’s big brother in Damascus has fallen, the day will come when Hizbullah [itself] will surrender its weapons, for it has is no other choice."[15]

During the celebrations in Ma'arab, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said, "This day belongs to everyone, but it should be a day of sorrow and disgrace for those Lebanese who spent decades groveling before the Assad regime in order to receive some political appointments or a morsel of food. Just as we are happy and proud, they should be ashamed and refrain from appearing on television, for we will remind them how they curried favor with Assad, surrendered their honor and sovereignty and ignored what the Assad regime was doing in Lebanon… Anyone who believed that Assad was protecting the Christians should be ashamed…"

Addressing Hizbullah, Geagea said, "It’s game over… You should have already spoken yesterday to the Lebanese Armed Forces and set out a schedule for eliminating your military infrastructures. We Lebanese must convene and begin discussing the future of the country. We, like the rest of the Lebanese, will not agree to return to the past. We do not want what happened in Syria and other places to happen in Lebanon. You have a week, a month or two months at the most to confer with the army and find a solution to [the issue of] your weapons. Either return them to Iran, sell them or hand them over [to the state]."[16]

Lebanese journalist Tony Bouloss expressed similar sentiments. In a post on his X account, he congratulated “sister” Syria on the conclusion of its “dark period” and urged Hizbullah, "which has been banished from South [Lebanon] and from Syria, to learn its lesson and hand over its weapons to the state quickly, before time runs out."[17]

Dr. Gerard Dib, a Lebanese commentator and columnist for the London-based Emirati daily Al-Arab, wrote, "The fall of the Syrian regime is a turning point in Hizbullah's return to the Lebanese fold, after it operated in numerous Arab and regional arenas. Hizbullah can no longer take independent decisions on Lebanon's future and open up fronts on some pretext or other against the Israeli enemy, or any other enemy. It cannot turn back the clock. What happened is a tremendous event in the history of Syria… Assad's fall draws a new roadmap for Lebanon… It is no longer possible to include Lebanon in the games of the [various] axes…"[18]

Assad's Fall Is Another Step In The Collapse Of The Iranian Axis

Opponents of the resistance axis view Assad's fall as a direct result of the blows sustained by this axis during its fighting with Israel over the past year – namely the blows sustained by Hamas in Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon – and as another step toward the collapse of the entire axis. At the conclusion of its weekly meeting, the Christian Saydat Al-Jabal Association issued a statement saying: "The fall of the Assad regime 13 years after the start of the Syrian revolution constitutes a major step in the collapse of the Iranian influence over the region, following the fall of Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in Lebanon. This resounding fall will change the face of the entire region in the right direction, toward a human, political, economic and modern revival, and will open a window of hope for the young people and for millions of people who paid the price of freedom with their lives… We congratulate the Syrian people on its freedom and hope it will transition from dictatorship to democracy by agreeing on a new constitution that will enshrine the relationships between its sectors. The new Syria must respect the sovereignty and independence of Lebanon and build relationships of cooperation and coordination between the [two] countries…"[19]

Lebanese journalist Tony Bouloss posted on X: "The Lebanese are just as happy as the Syrians over the fall of the Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad and the collapse of the Iranian axis. The Middle East will only be stable after the expulsion of Iran's regional proxies and instruments – starting with Hamas and Hizbullah, continuing with the Al-Assad regime and the Iraqi [armed] factions, and culminating with the Houthis in Yemen."[20]