Never Again? How To Prevent The Next October 7

Many of the investigative reports examining October 7 focus intensely on the intelligence, ignoring the failures on the strategic and political levels.

Indeed, the intelligence, tactical, and operational failures that led to the disaster were many, but these will be discussed in a separate article. This document will focus solely on the political and strategic levels.

The Flawed Assumptions That Led To The Disaster

The approach of Israeli governments and of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) prior to October 7 – referred to today by the collective term "conception," like their approach prior to the 1973 war – was based on four flawed assumptions. Anyone who dared to challenge them was publicly denounced as a heretic. They are as follows:

Assumption No. 1: Hamas was deterred by the blows struck against it by Israel in previous rounds of fighting. In fact, however, this perception is groundless because it was mere wishful thinking. The IDF did indeed severely damage Hamas's combat capabilities in previous rounds of fighting, but this had no long-term impact on them – and certainly not on its intentions. This is because after every round of fighting, there was rebuilding, and each time, Hamas ended up better off than it was before.

Assumption No. 2: Hamas has no interest in the war, and all signs of any such intent is mere lip service – that is, boasting that should not be taken seriously and is strictly for internal consumption in Gaza. The prevailing view was that because Israel allowed Hamas to build itself into an independent political body that is separate from the Palestinian Authority, Hamas would not want to jeopardize this status in an act of folly such as attacking Israel. The flawed assumption was that massive financial support that Hamas has received for years, with active Israeli assistance, had transmuted its ideological fervor, and now it is focusing on building and governing. This misconception was held by Israel's upper echelons in the areas of security, intelligence, academia, and media.[1]

Assumption No. 3: Gaza is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis. This assumption is an absolute lie, as anyone who visited Gaza prior to October 7 – including foreign journalists and aid workers – has seen, as has anyone viewing Gaza via binoculars or a drone's eye view (i.e. IDF officers). At the same time, this assumption has been used by the Israeli political-security echelon to explain to themselves Hamas's violent activity over the years in a way that corresponds with their assumption that Hamas is not interested in war. Thus, the violent May 2018 "March of Return" events, the rioting at the border fence, and the rounds of Gaza-Israel fighting over the years are all explained away by the Gazans' need to improve their harsh economic situation – not by any ideological intent or practical, organized plan to attack Israel. Although this assumption completely contradicts the previous two – "Hamas is deterred" and "Hamas is not interested in conflict" – it nevertheless lives in absurd harmony with the other erroneous assumptions.

The bluff of the "humanitarian crisis" was also exposed in reports published by Al-Jazeera, TRT, the BBC, and other outlets, and by Gazans on their social media (see MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 1742, The Face Of The 'Suffocating Occupation,' 'Humanitarian Disaster,' 'Concentration Camp,' And 'Prison Camp' Of Pre-War Gaza – In Pictures And Data, February 13, 2024). Recently, the son of the late Hamas political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh spoke longingly of a Gaza that was "more beautiful than most of the Arab cities in the world."[2] It must also be recalled that Israel withdrew unilaterally from Gaza in 2005, and that the Gaza-Egypt border was open and used by hundreds of thousands of Gazans. Even the Gaza-Israel land border included a number of commercial and other crossing points; the only "siege" on Gaza was by sea, aimed at preventing the smuggling of weapons into it.

Assumption No. 4: A high standard of living in Gaza created with aid funds will moderate, and even supersede, the Hamas ideology that is based on eliminating Israel and annihilating the Jews. This assumption is part of the general Western view that we will discuss further:  

Israel's political-security and military systems were captivated by the "concept," even though it blatantly contradicted the reality that they saw with their own eyes. Nevertheless, all the decisionmakers on all levels continued to cling to their erroneous assumptions. 

On August 31, 2023, I published a warning titled Signs Of Possible War In September-October. My warning was based on various open-source materials, such as statements by top Hamas official Salah Al-Arouri about Hamas's determination to launch all-out war against Israel; an article published in May 2018 about Hamas's preparations for "liberating" Israeli communities near Gaza; a conference focusing on preparations for actualizing the "divine promise" of a Muslim victory (wa'd al-aakhira); and, ultimately, the September 12, 2023 Hamas military drill conducted by the Joint Operations Room of the Resistance Factions in which fighters simulated, in detail, the attack they carried out less than a month later.[3] My publication of this early warning research prompted harsh reactions: "We can't defend you any longer," I was told, and "Stop with this racism." MEMRI's research on incitement, antisemitism, and education to jihad in Arab schoolbooks – that constitutes a threat to Israel's and Jews' existence – was dismissed by my colleagues in the intelligence research sphere, who said, "What nonsense are you dealing with?" At the time, voicing my predictions was an act of professional, social, and even moral suicide – but I could not remain silent.[4] In fact, I have been issuing warnings continuously for an entire decade.

Here are just two striking examples of these warnings:

• An article I published on May 21, 2021, titled The Blood Wedding Of Netanyahu And Qatar

• A May 10, 2022 op-ed I wrote for the Haaretz newspaper, titled Israeli Cooperation With Qatar: Strategically Disastrous And Morally Shameful.

"It's A Goat, Even If It Flies"

An Old Arabic Proverb Mocking The Denial Of Reality Even When It Is Before Your Eyes

The Israeli governments' belief that the flow of funds to Hamas would moderate or even cancel out the organization's jihadi ideology was not unique to Israel. It is part of the postmodernist Western political doctrine, that is based on dismissing the role of ideology in motivating individuals and human societies.[5] In this view, the ideological jihadi perception, like Communist ideology, can be moderated by means of funds. Underpinning this idea is the postmodernist assumption that all ideologies are legitimate and equal, that hostile ideologies must not be considered enemies that must be fought, and that what these ideologies say to the outside world must not be taken too seriously because ideological consciousness can be shaped by means of a positive attitude, and particularly by monetary incentives. 

This Western approach is consistent with the unwillingness to see the other as he sees himself and to deal with his motives in a practical way. It includes also a patronizing, ethnocentric, arrogant, and racist dimension, according to which "the Arabs can be bought," and money can replace any ideology or religious belief.[6] The Americans hoped to neutralize the Communism of Russia and China by transforming these countries, with massive American economic aid, into capitalist countries – which would uproot their hostile intentions. This did not happen. The U.S. even infected South Korea with the dangerous delusion that lavishing billions of dollars on North Korea, as part of the "Sunshine Policy," would prompt it to drop its hostility towards it. This did not happen either. No senior element in Israel – political, military, intelligence, research, or media – was innocent of this erroneous approach.

The Role Of Qatar

Israel's approach to Qatar, which prompted the October 7 disaster cannot be overestimated. It stemmed from all the Israeli intelligence and security agencies' total and inconceivable ignorance regarding Qatar's place and the role it plays. Qatar is an aggressive Islamist terrorist state that is hostile to Israel and an enemy of the West. While this is well known to every vegetable vendor and taxi driver in the Middle East, it has escaped Israel's (and America's) intelligence chiefs, and it blinded what should have been a moral and legal judgment not to deal with terrorists.

For over a decade, Qatar was allowed and helped by Israel in its sending of billions of dollars into Hamas-controlled Gaza.[7] Israel's incredible ignorance prevented it from distinguishing morally between friend and foe – for example, between the United Arab Emirates that signed a normalization agreement with it and established the interfaith Abraham Family House in Abu Dhabi with a synagogue, a church, and a mosque, and Qatar, that promotes extremist jihadi Wahhabism. This ignorance facilitated the Israel-Qatar cooperation on all levels, both political and security, in building up Hamas's army: 500 kilometers of tunnels, a mighty rocket array, and 30,000 fighters. This cooperation is what facilitated the October 7 attacks to happen. Without it, such a catastrophe would never have happened.

This approach – which still prevails in Israel – is also what allowed Qatar to fund Hamas, in violation of Israeli and U.S. law, while at the same time being considered an "honest broker" for hostage deals. It is noteworthy that in all its previous wars, before its postmodern era, Israel never funded its enemies in an attempt to change them – not in 1948, not in 1967, and not in 1973. It fought them.

This postmodern appeasement approach was introduced by none other than Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the Likud party, who sustained it with the full support of the all Israel's military, intelligence, and political echelons. It is ironic that he posed as the Churchill of Israel but in fact was not even Chamberlain, who never funded the Nazis even as he was fooling himself about "peace in our time." This approach of appeasement was directly influenced by the similarly delusional American approach; the U.S. has and continues to see Qatar as its ally even though it has been responsible for innumerable Islamic terror attacks against the U.S. – most notably 9/11 – and even though Qatar is an ally of Iran and is main supporter of Islamist terrorist organizations worldwide.

The bitter irony here is that instead of the U.S. pressuring Qatar to stop its Wahhabi activity, Qatar is buying U.S. and Western academic, media, social, industrial, economic, and political institutions – as well as international bodies such as the United Nations. It is also behind the Islamist radicalization in the U.S., that is clearly seen in the protests on American campuses and in the sweeping support for Hamas's savage October 7 attack and its goals, with slogans such as "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free."

Tragically, some in Israel's governments nevertheless see Qatar as the underwriter of Gaza's reconstruction after this war is over. If this is allowed to happen, Israel will bring the next October 7 upon itself.

* Yigal Carmon is President and Founder of MEMRI.