The Philippines Is Reacting Correctly To China's Aggression

Just when there was relative calm in the West Philippine Sea, following an agreement between China and the Philippines to exert greater effort to manage the maritime dispute,[1] China has provoked Manila anew with another aggressive act.

On the morning of August 8, China deployed two air force jets that engaged in dangerous maneuvers that included dropping eight flares in the path of a Philippine air force plane, which was on a routine patrol over the Scarborough Shoal.[2] It was reported that the Chinese jets flew dangerously close to the Philippine aircraft putting the lives of the Filipino pilots in danger. Thankfully, there were no casualties.

China's latest incursion was meant to intimidate Filipino forces and by extension, the United States. It was its way of asserting its self-conjured sovereignty over the shoal.

Philippines President Marcos Condemns China Air Force

Scarborough Shoal is approximately 130 kilometers west of Zambales province in the Philippines, the site of the former U.S. Subic Naval Base. Subic is now under reconstruction as a facility to provide services for U.S. and allied ships and aircrafts. China's latest act challenges the American guarantee that it will oppose any initiative by Beijing to occupy, reclaim, or militarize legally determined Philippine territories.

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said that Manila will definitely file a diplomatic protest against China.[3] Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said that he cannot let this incident go unanswered since doing so is akin to acquiescence. For his part, President Bongbong Marcos strongly condemned the incident, describing it as unjustified, illegal, and reckless.[4]

So, the next move by the Philippines will be another diplomatic protest. It will be one more added to the 405 previously filed, 130 of which during the Marcos regime.

Incensed by China's persistent gray zone tactics, many question whether filing yet another diplomatic protest is the right move by the Philippines. Some have suggested fighting fire with fire.

The Diplomatic Route

Going the diplomatic route is the correct move for four reasons.

Reason One: Learning from the Vietnamese experience.

A famous war strategist once said "a good Commander will not go head to head in battle unless he has lethal and number superiority in weapons and arms, with the right timing and situations are to his advantage and favor."

It will be recalled that in January 1974, Chinese and Vietnamese ships fought over a Vietnamese occupied islet in the Parcel, 250 miles south of Vietnam and 300 miles from Hainan, China. The Chinese navy, superior in number and weaponry, defeated the Vietnamese and forcibly invaded the islet. This resulted in hundreds of Vietnamese soldiers losing their lives. The islets became outposts for drilling oil and natural gas by Chinese companies.

In March 1988, the Chinese and Vietnamese fought again for the possession of the Johnson Reef in the Spratly Island group in the South China Sea. The Chinese again defeated the Vietnamese and forcibly occupied Johnson Reef, Fiery Cross, and other reefs. Seventy Vietnamese were killed in the process.

The Vietnamese experience shows that direct combat, even if justified, can lead to death, disaster, and defeat if one is outnumbered and outgunned.

That said, weaker military nations (like Vietnam and the Philippines) must fight China where the playing field is level. That "field" are the institutions of law.

Reason Two: Let us not think that the hundreds of diplomatic protests filed by the Philippines are for naught. They have hurt China more than we realize.

The Philippines is the only country in Asia that counter-attacked China in two ways. First, it publicized China's bad behavior to the world by way of actual videos footage and live accounts aired on international news channels. No amount of Chinese disinformation could challenge the live footage. This has caused many countries to condemn China's actions. More importantly, it revealed the communist country for what it is – a pariah state that resorts to barbaric behavior to forward its hegemonic ambitions. This has pushed China further into isolation – further away from law-abiding global citizens. It counts North Korea, Russia, and Iran as its close cadre.

The Philippines' second counterattack is through diplomatic protests. Its diplomatic protests have contributed to a loss of confidence in the Chinese leadership. This has led to grave economic consequences. According to published economic data, more than $3 trillion dollars left China's shores in the last three years by way of capital flight. And the exodus of capital continues. $15 billion exited between April and June 2024 alone. China is now seen as an investment, security, and geopolitical risk and investors are staying away. Capital flight is happening while China grapples with crippling debt, a severe property meltdown, record youth unemployment, decelerating exports, and the blowback of its demographic crisis.

Philippine diplomatic protests have also negatively impacted China's present and future multilateral agreements in trade, security, and environmental protection. Governments avoid dealing with states that do not conform to the rule of law.

Another consequence is the escalating tension and the specter of war in the Indo-Pacific. This has resulted in an arms race among stakeholders.

Reason Three: The Chinese are intentionally taunting the Philippines to elicit an aggressive reaction. An aggressive reaction is exactly what Beijing needs to justify an escalation. It needs a reason to cast blame on the Philippines. The Philippines is right not to fall into this trap.

Reason Four: By not fighting fire with fire, the Philippines maintains its moral high ground and proves it acts in accordance with international law. Manila's actions have resulted in an increasing number of like-minded countries aligning with it for defense and economic cooperation.

In the final analysis, the Philippines is handling its situation strategically and appropriately.

*Andrew J. Masigan is the MEMRI China Media Studies Project Special Advisor. He is a Manila-based economist, businessman, and political columnist for The Philippine Star. Masigan's articles in MEMRI are also published in The Philippine Star.