Reactions In Lebanon To Trump's Victory: Fear Among Hizbullah And Its Supporters, Optimism Among Their Opponents

Like many other issues in Lebanon, Donald Trump's presidential win has been a subject of disagreement between Lebanese supporters of Iran's resistance axis, led by Hizbullah, and their opponents in the country. Resistance axis supporters have expressed concerns and distrust regarding Trump's campaign promises to end wars and not start new ones, while opponents praised Trump and expressed their hopes that he will pursue aggressive policies against Iran and its proxies throughout the region, particularly in Lebanon.

At a government meeting that was held just as the election was called for Trump, interim  Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati uttered only a brief and laconic message of congratulations. "There is no alternative," he said, "but to congratulate the president-elect and the American people for having actualized democracy."[1] Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri did not congratulate Trump, declaring that he would express his judgement only after seeing the outcome of Trump's term – that is, four years from now. Berri also criticized the Biden administration, saying that its support for the "genocide" Israel is perpetrating in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon is the reason that Kamala Harris lost to Trump.

This report will present notable examples of reactions by Lebanese politicians and in Lebanese media to Trump's re-election.

Hizbullah And Resistance Axis Supporters Express Fear, Pessimism Over Second Trump Term

As noted, Trump's victory was received with much concern among supporters of the resistance axis in Lebanon.

Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri: We Will Judge Trump By His Actions

Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, the leader of the Shi'ite Amal Movement and an ally of Hizbullah, refrained from congratulating Trump. In an interview with the Al-Mustaqbal online media outlet, he said he would not comment on Trump's victory "before four years have passed" – that is, before the end of Trump's term in office. Addressing Trump's campaign promise to end the war in Lebanon, Berri noted that during a visit to a Lebanese restaurant in Dearborn, Michigan – the city with an Arab majority[2] and the largest Muslim population in the U.S.[3] – Trump had "promised in writing [to act] for a ceasefire in Lebanon immediately upon his victory."[4]

Berri also attributed the defeat of the Democrats to the policy of President Biden, who, he said, had "watched from the sidelines as children were killed in Gaza and Lebanon."[5]

Muhammad Khawaja, a Lebanese MP from Berri's party, expressed pessimism regarding the ramifications for Trump's victory for the situation in Lebanon, saying that he does not expect a change in U.S. policy, particularly with regard to ties with Israel. He predicted that the U.S. would continue to support Israel, "with which," he said, "we are at open war."[6]

Hizbullah Secretary-General Naim Qassem: We Attribute No Importance To Either Harris Or Trump

Hizbullah's official reaction to Trump's victory has been minimal; it stated that it has little faith in his promises to stop the current Israel-Hizbullah war.

Hizbullah Secretary-General Naim Qassem attempted to convey indifference to the election results. In a speech aired November 6 before the final results were announced – and which was possibly recorded prior to the elections – Qassem said that as far as Hizbullah is concerned, it does not matter who wins the election. He emphasized: "We are not counting on the American elections. Whether Kamala Harris wins or Trump wins, they are [both] worthless from our perspective... We rely on the ground [to determine the outcome of the war with Israel]..."[7]

Hizbullah MP Ibrahim Al-Moussawi said that the organization welcomes any effort to end the war in Lebanon but does not pin its hopes on any American administration.[8]

The Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar also expressed pessimism about the coming Trump presidency. The day after the final election results became known, it published a photo of Trump with the text "Trump Is Not One Who Puts Out Fires."[9]

Source: Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), November 8, 2024.

The Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen TV also published on its website a cartoon expressing concerns that Trump would support Israel and advance its interests. The cartoon depicts an Arab man pulling a Star of David out of an Uncle Sam hat belonging to Donald Trump, with the text "What is Trump hiding in his hat?"[10]

Source: Almayadeen.net, November 9, 2024.

Opponents Of The Resistance Axis: Trump's Victory Is An Opportunity For Lebanon And The Region To Rid Themselves Of Iran's Aspirations

By contrast, Lebanese opponents of the Iran-backed resistance axis hastened to express their congratulations to Trump, along with their hopes that he would support Lebanon and act firmly against Iran, which they accused of attempting to take control of the Middle East, particularly of Lebanon.

Lebanese Politicians Congratulate Trump

Former Lebanese prime minister Saad Al-Hariri wrote on his X account in English: "Congratulations President Donald Trump. A well-deserved victory which I hope opens new and better doors for America, the world and my country."[11]

Samir Geagea, head of the Christian political party Lebanese Forces and an opponent of the resistance axis, extended warm congratulations to Trump and expressed his hope that U.S. support for Lebanon would remain unchanged. He wrote on his X account in English and in Arabic: "I extend my congratulations to President Donald Trump on his reelection for president; I am confident that the steadfast U.S. support for Lebanon and its constitutional institutions, sovereignty and independence, and for the establishment of an effective [Lebanese] state, will continue as we have known it. I also congratulate the American people for their commitment to the goals of the democratic process, which serves as a decisive factor in change, renewal and the continuity of American institutions, especially given that we share with the American people the concepts and values of defending people's safety, freedom and independence."[12]

Charles Jabbour, head of the Lebanese Forces' outreach department, was more outspoken. He said: "What happened today is that an American administration that believes Iran is the problem and will undertake to restrain it has been elected. This is a president who is not planning on a second term; this is his last term in office. He already has four years of experience as president, and he knows how to make the most of the existing reality. As far as Lebanon is concerned, the main benefit of this development is a shift and a halting of Iran's role, which is detrimental to Lebanon's stability."[13]

Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil, formerly a Hizbullah ally but recently a harsh critic of it for joining the war against Israel and linking the conflict in Lebanon to the war in Gaza,[14] congratulated Trump on his victory and predicted that Trump's campaign promises would have "a tremendously positive impact on the U.S. and the world." He also welcomed what Trump wrote in his letter to the Lebanese-American community, calling it "a golden opportunity for Lebanon and the Lebanese people."[15]

Maronite Patriarch: Trump Follows Through On His Promises

The head of the Maronite church, Bechara Boutros Al-Ra'i, also congratulated Trump and expressed hope that his administration would help find a solution to Lebanon's presidential crisis and would undermine Iran's influence in Lebanon. In a Sunday sermon, Al-Ra'i said: "We are happy to congratulate the United States for electing a new president, Donald Trump. We congratulate him personally on his victory, and hope that he will bring good tidings to Lebanon and the region. [We hope] that the new president will pursue diplomatic means to bring about a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah, along with cooperation towards appointing, as soon as possible, a new president for Lebanon who will deal with negotiations regarding Lebanon and restore its institutions to their natural state."[xvi]

In an interview with the Nedaa Al-Watan journal, Al-Ra'i elaborated on his expectations vis-à-vis Trump's upcoming presidency: "Trump can be better than others because he does what he says. I believe that his arrival in the White House will have a positive impact on our country. He has Lebanese people on his team, and I hope that these ties will be used only for advancing Lebanon's interests. With regard to [appointing] a president [in Lebanon], the United States is the most influential country in the world, and therefore Trump's election can bring a swift end to our presidential vacuum. He has promised solutions to the region and the world... If Trump has announced that he will liberate Lebanon from Iran's influence, then I hope for the best, since we have had our fill of being [forced under] the auspices [of other countries], and the time has come for us to be independent."

Al-Ra'i also criticized the Biden administration's policies regarding Lebanon, and particularly U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson, whom he said had promised to help defend the Christian villages on the border with Israel but had "disappeared without returning."

Moreover, he expressed hope that during the Trump era, relations with the U.S. government would improve. Regarding the possibility that he may soon visit Washington, Al-Ra'i said: "It is important that a visit would be effective and will be used to present the Lebanese issue and how we can be helped in achieving practical independence and in forming a strong state in Lebanon. We are awaiting efforts [to organize such a visit], particularly on the part of the Lebanese individuals active in Trump's administration."[16]

Anti-Resistance Axis Lebanese Daily Al-Nahar: Trump's Electoral Victory Is Bad News For Iran And Hizbullah, And A Gift To The Entire Region

The Lebanese daily Al-Nahar, known for its opposition to the Iran-backed resistance axis, published several articles depicting Trump's victory as bad news for Iran and Hizbullah, and good news for Lebanon since Trump will work to crush the resistance axis.

In one article, journalist Ali Hamada wrote: "The return of former president Donald Trump to the White House is bad news for the Iranian regime... and for Hizbullah... The balance of power is clearly shifting in favor of the Israelis, behind whom are the Americans, who believe that this is the right time to begin implementing an old-new plan to eliminate Iran's proxies in the Middle East, in preparation for restricting the Iranian regime to [its own] borders and halting its expansion in the region. A blow to Hizbullah's military wing would be an enormous gift, not only to the Israelis or the Americans but to the entire region, and it would put an end to a dark period of military-security activity [by an organization] that serves the Iranian agenda."

Hizbullah, Hamada added, must understand that its proposal for a ceasefire and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is no longer relevant, given the fundamental shift in Israel's security position after Hamas's October 7 attack on southern Israel. He added that the American security strategy likewise regards this as a "golden opportunity" to undermine Iran's expansionist policy in the Middle East, beginning with the destruction of its most important military apparatus, i.e. Hizbullah. "The Israelis and Americans will try to exploit this opportunity during the rest of Biden's term and throughout Trump's presidency," he said, "and therefore, there will be no deal in the foreseeable future."[18]

Similar remarks were made by journalist Fares Khachan, who wrote that Trump's victory is the worst possible outcome for the resistance axis and that Iran's only remaining course of action is to reach a compromise. He wrote: "For many countries around the world, and especially for the resistance axis, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the return of Donald Trump to the White House is not just another event. Not only is Trump the man who moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and eliminated the architect of the 'unity of fronts' [strategy], Iranian [Qods Force commander] Gen. Qassem Soleimani; [not only is he the man] who was convinced by the Iranians [themselves] that they were plotting to kill him, even before the American security agencies convinced him of this – he is also the author of the Abraham Accords, which are aimed at changing the face of the region – a plan that Iran admitted it had tried to foil with [Hamas's October 7] attack..."

Stating that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have put their differences behind them and now share broad common ground, Khachan concluded that "Trump's victory... is the worst thing that could happen to the resistance front" because Iran now faces "difficult and limited options." He explained that an attack on Israel is no longer an option for Iran, because it would be suicidal, and that buying time is not an option either, because it requires two factors that are no longer effective: Iran's proxies and its economic capabilities. Therefore, he concluded, "the only option left [for Iran] is a settlement – the option that Trump prefers..."[19]

Conversely, some expressed concern that Trump would seek to escalate the confrontation with Iran, which could have serious consequences for Lebanon. Dr. Khaled Al-Hajj, an expert on Iranian affairs, wrote in Al-Nahar that he does not foresee any easing of tensions before Trump enters the White House, and that even after this, "Trump and Israel will [likely] strive to continue the war until they achieve their primary goal: removing the existential threats to Israel." If that happens, he said, "Lebanon, being directly affected by any escalation between Iran and Israel, will find itself in the eye of the storm, unable to control events..."

He added that the U.S. policy towards Iran and the region will be based on the principle of "America first," regardless of the effect on regional stability. Therefore, he said, despite Trump's statements about wanting to end wars, the primary goal of his administration will be to expand America's influence and maintain its strategic hegemony. "The talk of future de-escalation [thus] seems to be a distant aspiration, while total war is a more realistic scenario—unless Iran chooses to continue its strategy of avoiding direct escalation," he concluded.[20]