Renowned Russian Academic Karaganov: 'Our Opponents Should Have No Doubt About Our Ability And Readiness To Use Nuclear Weapons As A Last Resort To Win The War'

On November 21, 2024, renowned Russian academic Sergei Karaganov wrote an article, titled "Reflections on the Path to Victory," analyzing Russia-West relations and nuclear deterrence.[1]

In the article, Karaganov stated: "Most World Majority elites and (even more so) populations wish for the West's defeat... They would agree to Russia's increased reliance on nuclear weapons, up to and including their use... In-depth discussions with Chinese experts have found them receptive to the idea that the West must be defeated in Ukraine at any cost... Our opponents should have no doubt about our ability and readiness to use nuclear weapons as a last resort to win the war."

He then stressed: "Our Western policy should not seek to separate Europe from the U.S. This would be costly and unlikely now. We should give the Atlantic community the chance to destroy itself. The objective, in addition to those mentioned above, is the U.S.'s transformation into a normal great power and, eventually, the inclusion of a significant part of the western tip of Eurasia in the Great Eurasia project."

(Source: Karagnov.ru)

Below is Karaganov's article:[2]

"Our Goal Is To Facilitate The U.S.'s Incipient Retreat, As Peaceful As Possible, From The Position Of Global Hegemon"

"Russia has begun to win the fight against the West's aggression in Ukraine. But it is too early and dangerous to relax. The struggle is only intensifying, and to relax or stop now would be to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. But victory requires the thorough modernization of many aspects of our prior policy, including the correction and specification of its goals.

"Today the strategic goal, especially in our foreign and defense policies, must be prevention of the looming Third World War. I have already written about the many factors driving this threat. But one stands out – the West's desperate and, hopefully, last counterattack.

"Our goal is to facilitate the U.S.'s incipient retreat, as peaceful as possible, from the position of global hegemon (which it can no longer afford) to the position of a normal great power. 'Great America' is a strong competitor, but it will pose no direct threat to our interests or those of our friends. And in the future, the U.S. may become one of the four leading creators of the new world – it was a relatively constructive power until the end of World War II.

"Another strategic task is to expel Europe – the source of most of humanity's troubles in the past five centuries, of two world wars, of various acts of aggression against Russia, and of colonialism, racism, multiple genocides and monstrous ideologies (we are currently witnessing the most recent wave of such anti-human values) – from the position of major international actor. Let it stew in its own juices. Perhaps it will recover and return to its best qualities – rationality, enlightenment, humanism, and high culture, forsaking neo-Nazism, ultra-liberalism, and messianic democratism.

"We will have to attain these goals by strengthening nuclear deterrence, but also by diplomacy. Through it, we should try to prevent Washington from developing Weimar syndrome, already rampant in Europe due to its elite's series of defeats. No one imposed it on Europe; it developed because of European elites own numerous mistakes.

"Strategic goal is stopping the world's abovementioned slide into World War III, by displacing it with victory over the West in Ukraine. Primarily by drastically increasing our reliance on the nuclear factor in our forces, strategy, and international policy. Given our limited economy and population, and the scientific-technological lag that has accumulated since the 1990s, it is not worthwhile to compete with our opponents in conventional or digital forces, although we should still strengthen them. Nuclear weapons are the equalizer for the less powerful.

"That is why the U.S. has consistently sought to diminish the nuclear factor in world politics. We have the opposite interest.

"The crisis of the previous international system – which began to intensify in the second half of the 2000s, especially with the U.S.'s defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan and with the outbreak of the global economic crisis – will continue for another 15 to 20 years. During this time, Russia must solve a series of strategic tasks. Overcoming Westernism and Western-centrism, which signify intellectual barrenness. Winning the war with the West in Ukraine as soon as possible, through the defeat and surrender of the Kiev regime. Modernizing the economy. Restoring scientific and technological potential on a new basis. Finally, ridding Russia's leading class and society as a whole, of compradors and their way of thinking. Pivoting to the East and South by transferring Russia's center of spiritual and economic development to the Urals and Siberia, including by the establishment of a third capital there. And forming an effective, forward-looking ideology for all Russians from a very early age, with obligatory adherence to which is only for the ruling elite.

"We must also take meaningful action to create a new model of socio-economic development for the country and the world, and ensure real and relatively peaceful multipolarity. One goal is the establishment and consolidation of Russia as a balancer in Greater Eurasia's economic and political system and as one of the four great powers determining the trajectory of international politics.

"Clearly, the main emphasis in state policy should be placed on internal development – spiritual, educational, scientific, technological, economic, and spatial – through the abovementioned shift to Siberia, the East, and the South, including by establishing a third capital in Siberia. It is increasingly anachronistic to concentrate the country's main human, productive, and scientific resources in its European part. Achievements must be preserved, but alongside the purposeful Sibirization of Russia. People from the reincorporated territories and regions near the front should be attracted to Siberia and the Urals by the offer of better living conditions, broader prospects, and a sense of romance. New research and production clusters should be built there.

"But the main goal should be the development – spiritual, educational, physical, and moral – of all those living in our country, regardless of ethnicity, since they all make up a single community, united by Russian language and culture in a broad sense.

"Moving forward, we should take into consideration the main macro-trends that will determine the world's development during its transition to a new system over the next two decades."

Global Macro Trends – "The Defeated Liberals In Washington Have Ordered New Strikes On Russia, Hoping To Drag Out The War"

"The hitherto dominant model of socio-economic development – liberal global capitalism imperialism – has been exhausted. Its inherent focus on ever-growing consumption for the sake of profit is beginning to undermine the basis of human existence – human nature itself. Humans are being objectively and subjectively deprived of their essence, turned into soulless, brainless, unrestrained consumers. This model also requires geographic expansion – hence the enlargement of NATO and the incitement of ward and conflicts. Lenin's theory of imperialism, like Spengler's theory of Western/European decline, has turned out to be visionary.

"1. New powers have risen, and great civilizations that were suppressed for five centuries are reviving, primarily because the USSR and then a resurgent Russia deprived the West of the basis for its political, economic, and cultural dominance – its military superiority. Russia has liberated the world, but the transition to a new system will inevitably include tension and conflict between old and new powers.

"2. The West has undertaken a desperate counterattack in a bid to preserve its dominating position in the world system, from which it has not only imposed its rules and culture, but – most importantly – has been able to redirect global GDP to its own benefit. Its current relative wealth is mainly the fruit of colonialism, neocolonialism, and more recent and sophisticated means of resource extraction, including the dominance of the dollar.

"The West's counterattack consists of multifarious pressure on China and other emerging powers. And for the foreseeable future, it will intensify its efforts to weaken and undermine Russia – the military-strategic linchpin of the rising World Majority – through countless sanctions, war in Ukraine, and other crises.

"The U.S. is acting a bit more cautiously: taking advantage of Russia's current indecision, it is trying to drag Russia into a long exhausting conflict, yet also prevent the conflict's escalation. But the European elites have lost all remnants of reason and instinct for self-preservation, driving their societies straight into a major war (closing their eyes to the appalling consequences that it would have for Europe). And yet, with their days numbered, the defeated liberals in Washington have ordered new strikes on Russia, hoping to drag out the war.

"3. The unprecedentedly rapid redistribution of power in the world, and the West's rearguard actions, have created an intense pre-war situation that will continue for the foreseeable future.

"4. Much of old Europe has entered a severe existential crisis. Its elites consciously or subconsciously see a way out in the war for which they are preparing their citizens. Western Europe is once again becoming the main threat to international peace. Over the past few decades, most European countries have lost their sovereignty, and an end to the crisis is nowhere in sight. The U.S. is also in decline, its elites also need an enemy. But they are embarking, however hesitantly, on the path of national revival and nation-oriented politics (Trump). This makes them more likely partners in the long term. But Washington needs to be contained as firmly as possible, to help it rid itself of illusions of hegemony.

"5. A new military-technical revolution has begun, based on relatively cheap drones and missiles. Bioweapons' use has so far been avoided, but the threat is mounting. Taken together, these and other factors make conflict and war far more destructive and more easily available.

"6. The institutions and regimes that regulated world powers' behavior are eroding. The degradation of elites is progressing, especially in the West, which still plays a crucial role in the global economy and politics.

"7. The welcome rise of new powers, and the revival of old civilizations, has not yet filled the international system's vacuum of governance. The system has fallen into its typical state of chaos, but with a qualitatively higher level of interdependence.

"The above factors require a serious reorientation of Russia's policy. Unquestionably, work should continue to increase the Russian people's material prosperity, but priority should be given to defense, military strength, human development, national unity, and the moral-spiritual vigor of society and the elite. The economy should turn from the mistress of politics into its efficient servant. Leading positions in society must be held not by economists and businessmen (although they are very much needed), but by military officers, scientists, engineers, philosophers, teachers, and the clergy.

Internal Factors – "We Must End The Current Phase Of Direct Military Conflict With The West, But Not The Broader Confrontation With It"

"The war with the West in Ukraine allows us to solve several strategic tasks of internal development, including reorientation of the economy and of mentality (both mass and elite) from long-outdated and disadvantageous Western-centrism to internal technological, spiritual, and spatial development. We have begun moving towards potentially very profitable markets in the East and the South. We are rapidly getting rid of the fifth column of compradors and their way of thinking.

"The economy is growing, although still not quite steadily, both through import substitution and priority development of the military-industrial complex. We were not able to achieve economic growth without war – for 15 years we stagnated.

"Meritocracy is spreading within the elites, as comprador businessmen are replaced with soldiers, factory workers, scientists (so far very slowly), and honest and patriotic bureaucrats.

"The spiritual-moral revival of society has begun, replacing late Soviet cynicism and unbelief – and the loss of moral standards in adrift, cash-obsessed post-Soviet Russia – with values that are traditional for Russia and salutary for the modern world. First among these are the priority of the spiritual over the material; love of the family, fellow citizens, and the Motherland; and commitment to serving them. Society is regaining faith in God, though so far this is often fairly superficial. Of great importance: These and other positive changes in society and the country are just beginning. For them to continue, we need a dedicated state policy and, alas, the continuation of our confrontation with the West, hopefully less bloody and dangerous.

"History shows that our society cannot develop, and it even degrades, without confronting an external threat.

"Yet confrontation also incurs huge costs – primarily the lives of many thousands of our best men. It also distracts us from returning to our true self, to the Urals and Siberia (the sources of Russia's economic and spiritual strength for five centuries) and to the East and South (to which the global center of gravity is rapidly shifting). A sluggish war inevitably fatigues society, and potentially weakens support for the leadership and consolidation around it.

"The conclusion is obvious. We must end the current phase of direct military conflict with the West, but not the broader confrontation with it. This would be impossible now anyway, given the direction in which Western, especially European, elites are drifting.

"Time and a purposeful policy are needed to reframe the mentality and orientation of our society and elites towards the goals of national, sovereign, spiritual, and economic development, and towards the promising economic, cultural, and political 'markets' of Central, Southern, and Eastern Eurasia. In the foreseeable but distant future, it would be desirable to restore limited ties with some countries in Europe, as it will begin to drift apart in the next five to eight years. Russia and China should pursue a joint policy regarding Europe's parts; such a policy does not yet exist. And, of course, we should accelerate the development of ties with Africa, which also has promising markets.

"In education, we need to accelerate the turn towards studies of the history, culture, and languages of the countries of the World Majority. Byzantium and Asia (Siberia) are especially important; they (not Western Europe) are the roots of our identity, and their study will facilitate the restoration of that identity and our internal development.

"Finally, modern civilization demands a conscious policy to preserve in humans that which is human, to preserve in our civilization its best aspects: its cultural, religious, and national openness; 'the worldwide empathy of Russia.' A new Russian idea must be developed, an overarching state ideology. First for ourselves, and then for presentation to the world. It should be both defensive and offensive, in keeping with the best Russian traditions: defensive against harmful influences, offensive in offering Russia as one of the new moral and political leaders of the future world. We need a Russian Dream/Idea – a common goal of national development."

The External Environment – "Under No Circumstances Should We Question Our Further Strategic Alignment With China"

"Despite all the difficulties created by Western sanctions, Russia is successfully developing ties with the World Majority, which plays an ever-growing role in the world economy and politics. Further progress in these relations will largely depend on the dynamics of the conflict with the West in Ukraine. Its prolongation by Russian indecisiveness, or Russia falling short of victory (essentially equivalent to a Western victory), will slow or even partially reverse progress in these relations. Freezing the conflict on the current front line, without a decisive victory, will ruin Russia's image as a victorious country worthy of one's orientation and friendship. Resources will continue to be diverted in the dead-end western direction. Moreover, the direct military confrontation will almost inevitably resume but on terms less favorable for us. The World Majority countries, most of which sympathize with Russia but are not yet ready to resolutely take its side, understand this.

"Since the U.S. is likely to intensify its pressure on China, Moscow's position in relations with Beijing will become stronger. But under no circumstances should we question our further strategic alignment with China, which should remain our primary goal for the foreseeable future.

"Within the World Majority, attitudes vary towards the issue of key importance for us: the activation of nuclear deterrence in Russia's foreign policy, including in the conflict with the West in Ukraine. Anti-nuclear attitudes mostly prevail within the World Majority, partly due to its past segregation in this sphere. The U.S. is trying to exploit these attitudes to pressure Russia, acting through comprador circles in World Majority states, to threaten Russia's isolation if it uses nuclear weapons. Yet most World Majority elites and (even more so) populations wish for the West's defeat. Given a proper explanation – which, unfortunately, has not yet been offered – they would agree to Russia's increased reliance on nuclear weapons, up to and including their use. So far, we have allowed the West to retain the initiative. In-depth discussions with Chinese experts have found them receptive to the idea that the West must be defeated in Ukraine at any cost.

"The updated 'Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence' approved by President Putin in November 2024, has introduced almost revolutionary changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, decisively bringing it into line with contemporary demands. Although delayed, this step is most welcome. Our opponents should have no doubt about our ability and readiness to use nuclear weapons as a last resort to win the war.

"The U.S. will remain the most important player on the world stage for the foreseeable future, but it is beginning a long retreat from the position of global hegemon, a position that is no longer as advantageous following the West's loss of the military superiority that undergirded its dominance. This trend must be encouraged and guided (within Russia's existing capabilities and with growing reliance on a common strategy with a coalition from the World Majority). Regarding Ukraine, this means persistently increasing the cost of confrontation, primarily its risks, faced by the U.S. So far, this war has been quite beneficial for Washington, as it ties Russia's hands and potentially weakens it, while allowing the U.S. to rob Europe with renewed vigor. But the U.S. can rob it without war as well; it has already achieved one of its main goals – preventing a potential alliance between Europe and Russia.

"Trump will offer to ease pressure on Russia (which he cannot guarantee) in exchange for Russia refraining from a close alliance with China. It will remain the main enemy of the American ruling elite for the foreseeable future. It was their enemy before, too, but in the last few years the U.S. administration has sought first of all to undermine Russia in order to indirectly weaken China and the World Majority. It has failed.

"The Trump administration will propose a deal, alternating threats with promises. Threats – namely a temporary increase in support for the Kiev junta – are unpleasant, but the U.S. already understands that it cannot win. Threats should be preventively met with counter-threats, primarily to escalate the conflict so that it endangers the U.S.'s critical assets in Europe and its bases around the world. The new nuclear doctrine is a strong step in this direction. But we also need to take appropriate military-technical measures, conduct strategic forces exercises, and possibly deploy new intermediate and shorter-range missiles. The U.S. can (and already threatens to) do the same regardless of our actions. But this would be disadvantageous for it, as such a step would strengthen the U.S.'s strategic link with Europe and thus the U.S.'s own vulnerability. After all, an intermediate or shorter- range missile strike on Russia will inevitably be followed by an answer against U.S. territory. But for a country with low tolerance of casualties, and with 250 million firearms in its private citizens' hands, such a strike, even limited, would mean the end of the U.S. However, as I have said so many times before, we would very much prefer to avoid using the weapon of God, even against madmen.

"Naturally, we should not agree to half-measure deals. America will remain an unreliable partner for the foreseeable future. Fundamental normalization of our relations with the U.S. should not be expected in the coming decade. It is better to avoid rudeness and even to smile sometimes. But we must firmly deter and contain the U.S., continuing our chosen policy, being neither deceived by promises nor frightened by threats – which must be met with threats of our own, even preemptively.

"Trump's hands are tied by the Russophobia fanned by liberals for years. The inertia of the Cold War is still quite strong, and so are anti-Russian feelings among most Trumpists. Hostilities in Ukraine do not threaten the U.S., but are actually quite beneficial to it, so long as we do not decisively climb up the ladder of nuclear escalation. And most importantly, the ruling elite, even its more nationally-oriented part (Trumpists), is not yet ready to completely abandon the role of global hegemon. That requires time, and at least one more defeat (in Ukraine). We should try to make it not humiliating for the U.S.

"Again, a drastic improvement in relations is not only impossible, but unnecessary. We should not relax, letting compradors and Westernizers, who are lying low now, rush forward again. We have not completed our Turn to the East and Siberia. Russian science's incipient recovery, the economy's technological modernization, and the structural transition from services and raw materials to manufacturing – all these would decelerate midway to their goals were relations to drastically improve. Yet cosmetic, tonal improvements would be desirable for avoiding a direct collision and expanding other players' room for maneuver. We could even agree to some arms control talks, although they are pointless in the current political and military-technological situation.

"Europe is diverse, of course, but it is currently dominated by aggressively anti- Russian sentiment. It is Europe, not the U.S., that is leading the way in heightening tensions, as was repeatedly the case during the previous Cold War. (Churchill's speech in Fulton; the deployment of medium-range missiles in the 1970s was initiated largely by Europeans; etc.)

"The European liberal-globalist elites' hostility has extensive roots. First of all, they need it to cover up and justify their almost comprehensive failures over the past two decades. The Brussels-oriented elites, who retain power for the moment, use hostility to shackle together the decomposing body of the EU and to maintain their domestic and economic positions; the Eastern European limitrophe states use hostility towards Russia to strengthen their positions in the EU; all seek to preserve NATO as an extremely useful tool to shift the cost of security to the U.S. (though this is becoming increasingly difficult).

"The European military-industrial complex is also interested in escalation. Europe's comprador elites, bought in bulk by the U.S. play an important role in whipping up Russophobia. Washington is reaping the rewards of long-term investment in the European elites. But Europe is now increasingly seen as a burden, so Washington is shamelessly robbing it, taking advantage of the European elites' corruptibility fidelity readiness to serve non-national or even anti-national goals. It is not clear whether Europe will be able to break out of this impasse. At least a few bits are starting to break off. But this is a long process with an unclear outcome.

"Europe, which has surpassed even the U.S. in moral degradation and the adoption of new 'values,' also exhibits such strong Russophobia precisely because Russia is a visible alternative, a stronghold of normal human European values. The level of 'strategic parasitism' – the absence of fear of war – is also much higher in Europe than in the U.S. The remnants of strategically-thinking elites have vanished or been marginalized. The anti-meritocratic nature of modern democracy is particularly manifest here. The quality of the ruling elites in most European countries is unprecedentedly low. All this is aggravated by centuries-old Russophobia that has always been characteristic of Russia's western neighbors.

"The EU elites are also frustrated by the Ukraine gambit's failure to weaken Russia, gripped by a vigorously whipped-up but genuine fear of our country (the product of our many victories), and possessed by revanchism for past defeats (especially in Poland, Sweden and Germany, and especially for defeat in World War II, when almost all of Europe fought on Hitler's side).

"The modern European ruling elites (and this is very important) are not only deeply anti-Russian, but are preparing their peoples for war more and more openly, as borne out by military preparations and even more so by the level of anti-Russian psychosis. Europeans are forbidden to communicate with Russians; those who advocate a reasonable policy or even seek to maintain human contacts are prosecuted.

"Naturally, not all countries and not all forces in Europe are strongly opposed to Russia. They should not all be automatically considered unfriendly. Propaganda and policy should distinguish between peoples and elites, and work to prevent their consolidation by the West's rulers into an anti-Russian whole. We should not play into the ruling circles' hands with the retaliatory limitation of contacts. But it is also true that the USSR, and especially Russia, have forgotten the necessity of constantly reminding the Germans of their monstrous crimes against humanity and our country. We need to pursue a more nuanced policy separating the ruling elites from society. But societies are afflicted, too.

"Most importantly, having fallen into despair and insanity, and having lost the instinct of self-preservation, the European elites are pushing Europe and the whole world towards a major war, which will almost inevitably develop into World War III."

Conclusions – "Victory In Ukraine Is And Should Be Presented In Propaganda As The Most Important Prerequisite For Stopping The World's Slide Into World War III"

"The foremost goal of the current war should be the decisive defeat in Ukraine of Europe's rising revanchism. This is a war to ward off World War III and to prevent the restoration of the Western yoke and the West's ability to rob and oppress the rest of the world. If the West suffers another decisive defeat in Ukraine, Europe will fall apart faster. The U.S. – with all its hesitations and convulsions – will hurry to leave the position of global hegemon (which will ultimately benefit America itself in the new world). But most importantly, this will decrease the likelihood of World War III.

"Victory in Ukraine is and should be presented in propaganda as the most important prerequisite for stopping the world's slide into World War III, where it has been heading for several years now; it is a war to prevent a world war, a global catastrophe.

"Our Western policy should not seek to separate Europe from the U.S. This would be costly and unlikely now. We should give the Atlantic community the chance to destroy itself. The objective, in addition to those mentioned above, is the U.S.'s transformation into a normal great power and, eventually, the inclusion of a significant part of the western tip of Eurasia in the Great Eurasia project.

"Once again, it is very important to make sure that the confrontation with the West no longer distracts us from accelerating our turn to the South and the East, and from shifting the center of Russia's spiritual, economic, and political development to the Urals and Siberia.

"How can this be achieved? I will not delve into issues of military strategy in an article for public consumption. Nor do I have sufficient information or special knowledge. Yet the contours of the policy are clear enough. The nuclear doctrine should quickly be concretely substantiated through: the deployment of new systems and other military-technical measures; accelerated movement up the ladder of escalation; the redeployment of nuclear forces; and the demonstration of our capabilities and readiness to use them as a last resort to restrain those who have lost their minds. The offensive must continue, but the war can be won at an acceptable cost, without the loss of the nation's finest, only by activating the nuclear factor.

"We should clearly define our strategic goals (I have presented my list) and consistently move towards them without hesitation, albeit with possible diplomatic maneuvering – our partners and friends should know about our determination to achieve our goals, and that these goals are in their interests, too.

"Negotiations may be conducted, but only to ensure the necessary pace and intensity of our offensive, and to prevent escalation from getting out of control. It is time to finally stop chasing after the West in escalation, and instead start setting its pace. Total capitulation, the deposition of the Kiev junta, and the demilitarization (possibly with a no-fly zone) of the territories that remain within the Ukrainian state – such goals are secondary to breaking the will of the West (especially of the deranged European elite) to continue the war, and thereby stopping the slide into World War III.

"If we are decisive and consistent, we will win, and so will the majority of humanity that wishes to live freely and not be thrown into the abyss of world war by the stupidity and greed of Western elites. The initial negotiating position is obvious, it has been stated and should not be changed: NATO's return to its 1997 borders.

"Beyond that, various options are possible.

"Naturally, Trump will try to up the ante. So, we should act preemptively. Then the 'deal' to end the war, and hopefully the acute confrontation in the west of Eurasia, will be realized. It is pointless to listen to the Europeans now, as they have themselves undermined their sovereignty and agency. They should simply be pushed aside and shown what their reckless and suicidal desire to unleash another world war could lead to. We will have to wait for them to sober up – I sincerely hope, before the most extreme measures are taken."