Russia This Week is a weekly review by the MEMRI Russian Media Studies Project, covering the latest Russia-related news and analysis from media in Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe.
Cartoon Of The Week
)Vk.com, December 29, 2016)
Obama holds photo of Putin hugging Trump and names two things that can drive him to tears
Kerry: What's the second thing?
Obama: They are both here.
Zakharova Dixit
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova is one of the most-quoted Russian officials. She is known for using colorful language when describing Russian foreign policy in her weekly press briefings. The following are Zakharova's quotes of the week:
Zakharova (Source: Rt.com)
The Entire World Is Disgusted With Obama's Foreign Policy
The Barack Obama administration’s foreign policy over the eight years of Obama’s presidency "evokes the aversion of the entire world," Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday.
"I think this man [Obama] and his team - naturally, speaking about the man we mean the team which has proven to be bad for all on the global arena," she said in an interview with the Sunday Evening weekly news roundup on the Rossiya-1 television channel.
"I think this eight-year office that served under the slogan of their exclusiveness evoked aversion of the entire world. They have failed to fulfill their obligations taken before some countries, they have failed to fulfill what they were commissioned to, including by the American people on the global arena," Zakharova said.
According to the Russian diplomat, from a "moral point of view" the Obama team is guilty of committing a "crime" by demonstrating that "the stronger has unlimited rights to do evil." "Such is this administration's historical legacy," she added.
(Tass.com, January 4):
Latest Round Of Sanctions Designed To 'Create Problems For The Incoming Trump Administration'.
It is surprising that the National Defense Authorization Act authorizes the US President to impose “sanctions with respect to any foreign person the President determines” to be responsible for human rights violations. President Obama has globalized the infamous Magnitsky Act (2012), thereby dooming the United States to problems in relations not just with Russia but also with the rest of the world. It is an old foreign policy tradition of Washington to use human rights to put pressure on undesirable governments. But the new Authorisation Act has openly given the Pentagon the power to spread US-style democracy across the planet.
Overall, it appears that the Authorization Act has been adopted by the outgoing Obama administration, which is hastily introducing new sanctions against Russia, to create problems for the incoming Trump administration and complicate its relations on the international stage, as well as to force it to adopt an anti-Russia policy. This policy has brought the current US administration, which believed that Russia would bow to pressure, into a dead end. We hope the new administration will be more sagacious.
(Mid.ru)
Russia-US Cooperation Cannot Be Cherry-Picked
However, the ban on cooperation with Russia can be waived if “the waiver is in the national security interest of the United States.” The issue concerns cooperation under arms control agreements and military operations in Afghanistan. This selective approach cannot be effective, as we have seen in Syria, where our American partners refused to maintain full-fledged counterterrorism cooperation with Russia.
Instead of joining forces to cut short the sway of all forms of extremism there, as we suggested long ago, Washington has decided to deliver military assistance to anti-government groups, which are not much different from the terrorist cutthroats. Now the new Act openly stipulates the possibility of supplying them with weapons, including portable air defence missile systems.
The Obama administration is bound to see that these weapons will soon find their way to the jihadists with whom the alleged “moderate opposition” has been acting hand in glove. Maybe that is what the United States hopes will happen, because it has been sponsoring Jabhat al-Nusra, a terrorist group and a branch of al-Qaeda. This can only be described as sponsoring terrorism.
British FM Boris Johnson Is Behind The Curve
"We have taken note of a very strange statement by UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, although at this point perhaps nothing should come as a surprise to us anymore. He said that UN representatives should not be allowed into eastern Aleppo, adding that this is unacceptable. The [Syrian] regime and those who support it should immediately comply with their obligations, and with UN Security Council Resolution 2328, to ensure that all civilians are protected. He went on to say that the Syrian army’s control over Aleppo does not mean a complete victory, as Bashar Assad is extremely dependent on foreign armed groups and Russian air support, and has also caused large-scale destruction in the country, including atrocities, and so on. It was a wide-ranging statement.
I understand very well and am aware of the fact that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is not a career diplomat. But not to such an extent!
We will not comment on these passages – which, in my view, have already become “antiquated” – to the effect that “Bashar Assad must go.” If Boris Johnson is not aware, only the most rabid opposition, extremists and militants are continuing to talk about that. His colleagues have long changed their vocabulary on the issue."
(Mid.ru)
Hacking Charges Against Russia A White House Orchestrated Provocation
However, the truth about the White House-orchestrated provocation is bound to surface sooner or later. In fact, this is already happening. On December 8, US media quoted Georgia’s Secretary of State Brian Kemp as saying that the local authorities tracked down the origin of a hacker attack on his voter registration database after the election. The attack was traced to an IP address of the Department of Homeland Security. This was followed by an attempt to quickly cover up this information by a flood of new anti-Russian accusations that did not contain a single piece of evidence.
We can only add that if Washington takes new hostile steps, it will receive an answer. This applies to any actions against Russian diplomatic missions in the United States, which will immediately backfire at US diplomats in Russia. The Obama administration probably does not care at all about the future of bilateral relations, but history will hardly forgive it for this après-nous-le-deluge attitude.
(Mid.ru)
US-Russia Relations
Russia's senior diplomats expressed cautious optimism for an upturn in bilateral relations. In an interview with Interfax FM Sergey Lavrov claimed that Russia was prepared to meet the new administration half-way.
Question: The outlines of President-elect Donald Trump’s team are becoming clear. Are there grounds to believe, including based on contact with Donald Trump’s representatives, that the new US administration will implement part of the election promises regarding Russia and that differences on Syria, Ukraine and bilateral issues will be smoothed over?
Sergey Lavrov: We welcome President-elect Donald Trump’s stated willingness to resume a normal dialogue with Russia. As President Putin has repeatedly said, Russia is “prepared to go down our part of that road” to return bilateral relations to a stable trajectory. I would like to say that we are not to blame for the recent deterioration of our relations, which happened because of Washington’s deliberate actions. Russia has always been open to predictable cooperation with the United States based on the principles of equality, mutual respect and due consideration for each other’s priorities.
At the same time, we understand that it will take hard work to remedy the damage done to our relations under the Obama administration. It would be premature to talk about the kind of relations on specific issues we may have with the Republican administration. Anyway, we must wait until Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, and until his candidates for the heads of departments responsible for national security and foreign affairs assume office. We will be able to make forecasts after we establish official contact with the new US administration and assess its first actions.
We hope to be able to develop a pragmatic dialogue. We should begin by resuming interdepartmental ties, which have been curtailed almost completely. We had a Bilateral Presidential Commission, which showed good results and included 21 working groups on a broad range of cooperation issues, but Washington suspended it in March 2014.
If the United States shows a willingness to resume constructive cooperation, we will definitely not just surge ahead on bilateral issues but will also make a weighty joint contribution to settling acute global and regional problems, including the Syrian and Ukrainian crises. The conditions for this exist. Our concerted efforts are especially necessary in the fight against international terrorism and extremism.
We could also implement joint mutually beneficial trade, investment, innovation and technology initiatives. It is indicative that American companies have not left the Russian market despite the White House’s sanctions and pressure. They regard the Russian market as profitable and attractive. There is great cooperation potential in our cultural and humanitarian exchanges and citizen contacts.
As I have said, effective cooperation between Russia and the United States is possible, but only after Washington stops using deterrence tools and blackmail and ceases its attempts to force its will on us. The ball is in the US court now.
(Mid.ru)
Some Russian officials would welcome the involvement of the nonagenarian former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in smoothing relations. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.The Kremlin spokesman was responding to German media reports that the ex-head of US diplomacy might act as a mediator between Moscow and Washington under US President Donald Trump. "No doubt, Kissinger is still one of the wisest politicians, experts who possesses, among other things, the most profound expert knowledge both in the sphere of Russian affairs and in the sphere of Russia-US relations," Peskov said. According to the Kremlin spokesman, "if his expert knowledge and the richest experience accumulated over decades somehow come to be needed, we would only welcome this
The electronic version of the German newspaper Bild had previously cited sources in team Trump and European intelligence services to speculate that Kissinger might serve as a mediator between Moscow and Washington and help develop a plan to normalize the situation in Ukraine.
(Tass.com, December 27)
Deputy FM Sergey Ryabkov in an interview to RIA sought to tone down expectation for an immediate turnaround in the relationship and enumerated three obstacles that could impede Russian-US relations in the near future: "First, for the last couple of years with Obama's administration direct participation, the American political establishment and structures in charge of foreign policy or influencing the foreign policy arouse a great deal of "Anti-Russianism". This is a negative, a destructive energy which we have not seen for a long time. It's not a balloon which you may punch and tear in order to reduce pressure.Unfortunately this is a very poisonous substance which merged into every aspect of American state apparatus which influences the foreign policy decisions. It will be very difficult to clean it up". "Second, we fully understand that the Americans never cooperate – disregarding what party the President comes from or how the Congress is comprised- if such a cooperation does not coincide in full with the American interests. We do the same. So, taking these two imperatives into account, it will be hard to locate focal points, where the cooperation will be really beneficial to both sides. I don't say it's impossible – there are some spheres such as weapons control regimes or nuclear weapons non-proliferation, regional matters…" "The third factor is that we do not fully understand the future US foreign policy and more specifically the foreign policy towards Russia after the new administration takes place. It has to do with very fragmentary remarks by politicians or experts who are considered to be part of Trump's team".
(Ria.ru, December 22)
Russia – NATO
Russian Ambassador to NATO Alexander Grushko dismissed plans for a European army as "an impossible dream," At best the Europeans were capable of establishing some kind of a joint General staff consisting of military and civilian personnel that would plan and control all the military operations that involve the European Union." Grushko added that this was not the first time that the idea was broached and "all previous attempts produced poor results." Such a project faced major obstacles including economic ones. "They would have to unify their defense industries and set up some mechanisms so that their defense companies could cooperate," he noted. "But we know that weapons manufacturing is a highly competitive sphere."
(Tass.com, December 26)
Alexander Grushko (Source: Sputnik.com)
Syria
Russian combat engineers claim to have found ammunition made in the United States, Germany and Bulgaria during their mine clearance operation in the Syrian city of Aleppo, Commander of Russia’s International Mine Action Center Ivan Gromov said on Wednesday." Ammunition and large-caliber small arms together with rockets for Grad multiple launch rocket systems are represented there. The shells were produced in Germany, the United States and Bulgaria," he said in an interview with Rossiya-24 TV Channel. The Russian combat engineers also found 122mm mortar shells, rockets for multiple launch rocket systems, hand grenades, grenade launchers and howitzer projectiles in one of the militants’ headquarters, the commander said, adding this ammunition would suffice for an entire whole battalion.
(Tass.com, December 28)
Obama's parting sting: Palymyra seized by [ISIS] fighters whom America pushed out of Mosul (Source: Katyusha.org)
Russia was restoring lost positions and ensuring a Middle East presence by expanding the naval base in Tartus, said Andrey Krasov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma’s Defense Committee in an interview with TASS. Russia and the Soviet Union had always maintained a strategic partnership with Syria and Russia would honor the relationship: "Unlike NATO, the Russian Federation is the guarantor of security in the world....In Syria we fight against international terrorism not only by words, but also by deeds. Both Russian Aerospace Defense Forces and Russian Navy’s ship groups demonstrate their professionalism, high qualifications in supporting the Syrian Armed Forces in the fight against terrorism... We are doing everything possible in order for long-suffering Syria to be cleansed from this plague ― international terrorism".
Criticism of Russia's role in Syria and elsewhere was caused by resentment over Russia's resurgence: "When in the 1990s we did not hold any drills and closed our bases one by one ― in Cam Ranh (Vietnam), in Cuba ― no one cared about this, everybody was clapping their hands...And now, when we rose from our knees, when we started to actively train our forces - and we are doing this on our own territory - our defense-industrial companies produce the most modern weapons, and no other army in the world has such equipment and such weapons - this worries someone."
(Tass.com., December 24)
In addition to its military support for the Assad regime Russia will use its veto to scuttle a Franco-British UN Security Council draft resolution imposing sanctions on the regime for the alleged use of toxic chemicals as weapons and warfare agents warned Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov:
"We’ve stated more than once and we reiterate again that reports by the joint mechanism of the United Nations and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, established for the investigation of such affairs, are not a reason enough for making conclusions that may go so far as the French and British counterparts have proposed." Instead of backing sterile initiatives that could only fan tensions Ryabkov invited countries to support the Russian proposal for drafting a special convention on the struggle against acts of chemical and biological terrorism.. "This is the way to proceed along, and not use the situation the way British and French counterparts have been doing for putting political pressures on Damascus." (Tass.com, December 28)
The Russian press weighed in on what was considered a major diplomatic achievement – the ceasefire in Syria and debated its durability and whether it could lead to a peace summit in Astana, Kazakhstan There Moscow will reportedly represent the Syrian government side, while Turkey will represent the opposition. Kommersant noted the remarks by the Turkish FM Mevlut Cavusoglu to the opposition that Assad's participation in the transition is impossible. This sets up a clash with Russia that is determined to keep Assad in power at least through the transitional period. Additionally, while Russia and Turkey have agreed on which terrorist groups will be excluded from the ceasefire – primarily ISIS and Jabhat Al-Nusra, Gazeta notes that the Kurdish question has not been addressed. Moscow views the Syrian Kurdish YPG (military wing) as effective fighters against ISIS, while Ankara considers YPG a terror group linked to the PKK ( Kurdistan Workers Party which is outlawed in Turkey ). Experts also warned that key regional players such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia were excluded from the agreement, and by supplying arms they could act as spoilers.
(Kommersant.ru, January 5; Gazeta.ru, December 28)
Despite these uncertainties Russia announced the ceasefire at a high-profile meeting between Russian President Putin, Defense Minister Shoigu and Foreign Minister Lavrov:
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Colleagues,
The news has just come in that this morning, a few hours ago, an event that we not just long since hoped for but also worked hard for has taken place. Three documents have been signed. The first is an agreement between the Syrian government and the armed opposition on a ceasefire on the Syrian Arab Republic’s territory. The second document agrees a series of measures to monitor the ceasefire. The third document is a statement of readiness to start peace talks on ending the Syrian conflict.
The Russian Defence Ministry and Foreign Ministry were in constant contact with our partners in Damascus and other capitals and worked hard together with our partners in Turkey.
We know that the Russian, Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers recently held a trilateral meeting in Moscow, at which all three countries committed themselves to not simply monitoring but also guaranteeing the peace process in Syria.
I would like to hear your analysis of the events currently underway, and we will discuss the next steps in this peace process. We realise that the agreements reached are very fragile and require particular attention, patience, a professional approach to the issues, and constant contact with our partners in the region.
Mr Shoigu, you have the floor.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu: Mr President, acting on your instruction, the defense ministry, with Turkey acting as intermediary, spent two months in talks with leaders of the groups that make up the moderate Syrian opposition. These groups control the greater part of areas in Syria’s central and northern regions not under control of the government in Damascus. These detachments have more than 60,000 fighters. The most influential field commanders from seven opposition groups took part in the talks.
At the same time, we carried out the same work with the Syrian government. The talks made it possible for the parties to reach a common position and sign these three basic agreements that introduce a ceasefire, establish a monitoring regime, and set out procedures for organising talks on a peace settlement of the Syrian conflict.
The Defense Ministry has established a communications hotline for maintaining cooperation with Turkey, which is acting jointly with Russia as a guarantor of the ceasefire and respect for the agreements reached.
If you decide to let these agreements take effect, we are ready to guarantee the ceasefire’s introduction and organize ongoing monitoring to ensure it is respected.
I think that the conditions are in place now for a ceasefire to take effect on Syria’s territory and establish direct dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition groups that seek to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. This also creates the conditions we need to be able to reduce Russia’s military presence on Syrian territory.
Mr President, the groups with whom the talks were conducted are presented here. (Watch presentation.) They all signed these agreements this morning. In terms of their territorial location, here you see the territory under these groups’ control.
Vladimir Putin: Mr Shoigu, these seven armed opposition groups, what and who do they represent?
Sergei Shoigu: Ahrar al-Sham, for example, has 80 detachments on Syrian soil, together with military hardware, T-55 and T-72 tanks and artillery. In terms of territory, Mr President, this…
Vladimir Putin: How many armed fighters are we talking about here?
Sergei Shoigu: Sixty-two thousand armed people. Over these two months, we spent the bulk of the time on making sure that the maps indicate what we at one point asked our American colleagues to do.
Vladimir Putin: So, these groups are the core, essentially, the nucleus. They make up the main armed opposition forces.
Sergei Shoigu: Yes, Mr President. They constitute the main opposition forces.
These are the areas currently under their control. Here is Aleppo and here is Damascus, and this area is practically entirely under their control. What’s more, they have indicated the exact coordinates of locations and settlements under their control. The same goes for the central region and the situation in the districts around Damascus. Thus, we see that this area is under these detachments’ control.
We have also established a direct communications line with our Turkish colleagues, who are acting as guarantors to ensure that all terms of the agreements are respected, particularly as regards monitoring the agreements’ enforcement. The main purpose of this monitoring work is to ensure that organisations that do not cease hostilities are listed as terrorist organisations, and the same kind of action will be taken against them as is being taken against ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra throughout the remaining territory.
Vladimir Putin: Thank you.
Mr Lavrov.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: Mr President, we will take measures today to ensure that the package of agreements that was signed be disseminated as official UN Security Council documents. We will brief the Security Council members on the work accomplished and answer their questions.
The current UN Secretary General and the Secretary General Designate, who takes office on January 1, welcomed this process that Russia and Turkey began and that Iran supported and took part in.
Throughout this joint work with Turkey and Iran, we briefed our other partners in the region and kept them informed in what we are doing. Now, following these consultations, we are ready to start preparing the meeting in Astana together with our Turkish and Iranian colleagues.
It is important to increase the number of guarantor countries, and we therefore want at this stage to invite our Egyptian colleagues to join these agreements. To my knowledge, you discussed this matter with the President of Egypt today. Later, at subsequent stages, we could probably get other key countries with influence on events in Syria involved too, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, and Jordan.
Of course, we will invite the UN representative too. This will enable us to secure continuity of this political process, taking into account the framework approved by Security Council Resolution 2254.
I also hope that once Donald Trump’s administration takes office, they too will join these efforts so that we can all work in this area in a friendly spirit and as a team.
Vladimir Putin: Let me say again that the agreements reached are fragile, of course, and require our particular attention and support to cement and develop them. Nonetheless, this is a significant result of our joint work and of the efforts the Defence Ministry, Foreign Ministry and our partners in the region have made.
Now, we must do all possible to ensure that these agreements take effect and that they work, so that the negotiation teams already formed or in the process of formation can come as soon as possible to Astana to begin the real peace process.
In this respect, I call on the Syrian Arab Republic’s government, the armed opposition groups, and all countries in the region, whether involved in the conflict or with influence on the parties to the conflict, to give their support to the agreements reached and take an active part in the planned talks in Kazakhstan’s capital.
(Addressing Sergei Lavrov) I ask you to organize contacts between myself and our partners in Turkey, Iran and Damascus, in order to discuss our next steps together to reinforce the agreements reached.
I agree with the Defense Ministry proposal to scale back our military presence in Syria. We will certainly continue our fight against international terrorism, of course, and will continue to support the legitimate Syrian government in its fight against terrorism.
We will, of course, carry out the agreements we have reached, including on developing our military base in Tartus and the Hmeimim air base.
I want to thank you for everything you have done in this important part of the fight against international terrorism.
Sergei Shoigu: Mr President, with your permission, we will confirm that the ceasefire will take effect from midnight on December 30.
Vladimir Putin: Agreed.
(Kremlin.ru, December 29)
Putin, Shoigu and Lavrov confer (Kremlin.ru)
Apropos the ceasefire Elena Suponina, advisor to the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies' CEO says that Kurdish paramilitary forces will have to resolve their issues with Turkey and the Assad regime on a bilateral framework.
According to Fedor Lukyanov, Presidium Chair of Council for Foreign and Defense policy, the reduction of forces, which has been mentioned, is not irreversible – Russia may well increase the amount of troops of needed.
According to Alexey Milashenko, CEO of Institute for Civilizational Dialog, Moscow and Turkey agreed to keep Assad in power for the near future and thus the two countries have overcome the major difference in their respective approaches to Syria.
(Gazeta.ru, December 29)
Russia-Iran
Despite the upcoming ceasefire Russia has been discussing with Iran the option of using Hamadan airbase again and apparently Iranian permission to use the base has been granted. However, Iran that is sensitive over its sovereignty emphasized that such permission would be granted on an ad hoc basis and would be contingent on circumstances.
Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan told Russia's RT channel: "Since we're cooperating with Russia in struggle with terrorism, we've given some privileges to it as regards the landings and takeoffs of combat aircraft and we'll consider these privileges for Russia again when we feel it necessary and if Russia makes a request for them," he said adding that the Iranian authorities would consider the current circumstances and would make an appropriate decision.
"We didn't sign any agreement with Russia that would allow it to use our bases anytime," Dehghan said. "Proceeding from the circumstances and in case of a request from Russia, we'll be ready to grant assistance if we see a need for it."
(Tass.com, December 27)
Forecasts For 2017
According to experts cited by Gazeta.ru, 2017 will witness an acceleration of power struggles between the security apparatus (siloviki) and regional elites. According to politology expert Evgenii Minchenko, CEO of the International Institute of Political Expertise, referring to Economic Development minister Alexey Ulukayev's arrest, said that "the struggle is just beginning – it unfolds simultaneously amongst administrational, economic and security elites. The anti-corruption "vehicle" is running and it will need new "sacrificial victims". Thus, there might be even more high-profile arrests".
(Gazeta.ru, December 20)
Another forecast published in Gazeta.ru, predicts that it is unlikely that social protest engendered by the economic difficulties and repressive laws will expand in scope. The authorities have learned to contend with local outbursts by employing a "divide, reward/punish and rule" strategy. According to the experts cited, should the liberal opposition attempt to "catch the wave" during local protests and blame Putin personally, this will boomerang as the masses view the central authorities, namely the president, as a problem solver as opposed to local authorities. (Gazeta.ru, December 24)
Strange, But True:
The local court in the Pacific port of Vladivostok recently decided that the Salvation Army has to destroy 40 copies of the Bible and other religious literature ( around 100 copies) since the books have not been properly marked as the missionary organization's property. This ruling conforms to a federal law regarding missionary organizations and their activities. Even the Russian Orthodox Church, which normally favors measures that hamper its Christian competitors, officially voiced its concern saying that the court's decision went too far.
(Vedomosti.ru, December 28)
