Russia This Week is a weekly review by the MEMRI Russian Media Studies Project, covering the latest Russia-related news and analysis from media in Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe.
This issue of Russia This Week concentrates on economics. Despite the optimism voiced by Putin, the economy according to an official report will stagnate. A large slice of the budget is devoted to military requirements.
Cartoons Of The Week
(Source: Twitter.com/Sandy_mustache, October 24, 2016)
Caption: We don't care about the sanctions
Inscription on the bucket: Russia
Quote Of The Week:
Oleg Barabanov, Program Director of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, wrote in an article titled "What if... the Soviet Union had not collapsed", published by the Valdai Club:
"In April 2016, as part of the 30-year anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, articles and even a feature film were released that examined the question: 'What if Chernobyl had never happened?' For example, in the popular television series 'Chernobyl - Restricted Zone,' a group of contemporary youth use a time machine, return to the last day before the Chernobyl accident occurred and manage to stop the catastrophe before it happens. The whole futures changes as a result, and in the final scenes viewers see skyscrapers towering over a modern Chernobyl, the Soviet Union still intact, the Soviet ruble stronger than all other currencies, most of the countries of the world following a socialist path to development while the United States, alone, heads toward collapse, and a global Internet - the Runet - created by Soviet scientists. The only thing in that world that remains the same is that Vladimir Putin is the General Secretary of the CPSU [Communist Party of the Soviet Union]."
Putin Mania
(Source: Beladoka.com)
In The News:
Russia's Economy
Center for Strategic Research CEO and ex-finance minister Alexei Kudrin said that the West will gradually weaken sanctions on Russia. Kudrin said: "According to all my estimates and talks with Western politicians, I assumed that the lowering of sanctions may even start at the turn of this year. It may not occur this year but I remain optimistic in respect of the next year. Their gradual decline will start next year." He then explained that Western sanctions had an economic impact on Russia but had no political effect. Kudrin explained: "I mention this figure everywhere - from 0.8% to 1% of non-received GDP growth. It was nearly 1% in the first two years and slightly less now. Sanctions seriously affect our economy. Another point is they are not valid as a political tool; it does not work and has not influenced our policy at all."
He then added that the Bank of Russia commands all lolicy evers to reach 4% annual inflation. Kudrin said: "If the Central Bank sets such a goal, it will deliver it with high probability, although its impact will be a short-term decline of economic growth rates by 0.1-0.2%. I believe 4% inflation is an important goal, because it will provide for a higher rate of economic growth over the longer term."
(Tass.com, October 26)
Alexei Kudrin (Source: Valdaiclub.com)
Putin held a working meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, focusing on the Government's work on the draft federal budget for 2017 and the planning period of 2018-2019. During the meeting, Medvedev said that the government finished working on the budget, which is based on the assumption of $40 per barrel oil prices. Medvedev added: "We plan revenues of 13.5 trillion rubles and expenditures of 16 trillion. It is a deficit budget... We plan a deficit of about 3 percent [of GDP]." He then added that a projection by the Finance and Economic Development ministries, and the Central Bank) assume a 4 percent price rise, or inflation. On October 28, the Russian government submitted the draft budget for 2017-2019 to the State Duma.
(Interfax.ru, October 28, Kremlin.ru, October 25)
Economic Development Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said preparations for the privatization of Rosneft will conclude by December 2016.
(Tass.com, October 26)
Russia expects to reap $15 billion revenues per annum on weapon sale annually in the upcoming years - according to deputy director general of Federal Military -Technical Cooperation Service.
(Ria.ru, October 19)
The leading financial journal Vedomosti cites the financial prognosis document provided by the Russian Ministry of Economic-Social Development, which was recently presented to the Ministry of Finances : according to "base plus " forecast the Russian economy will stagnate for the next two decades. This prognosis clashes with President Putin's earlier claims that the Russian economy is gradually overcoming the stagnation of the recent period, but according to the forecast the Russian economy will grow by an average of 2% early in the forthcoming 20 years which lags behind average world's growth by a factor of 1.5. This anemic growth will barely keep pace with inflation.
(Vedomosti.ru, October 20)
According to Kommersant, in the draft budget for 2017, military spending will increase and will constitute 23.87% of the general budget, this is the highest military spending figure since the Soviet era. Military spending will represent 4.7 % of GDP.
(Kommersant.ru, October 17)
Novaya Gazeta added that additional 800 billion rubles will be allocated to in 2017 to the Ministry of Defense in order to repay the principal and interest charges on the loans previously assumed by the defense -industrial complex, to finance the rearmament programs.
(Novayagazeta.ru, October 19)
On October 24, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller briefed Russian President Vladimir Putin on gas reserves in underground reservoirs and on the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. Miller said: "Gazprom has completed delivery of gas to the underground reservoirs and we have now reached the target figure we set for this year. We currently have 72.1 billion cubic meters of gas in the underground reservoirs for the upcoming winter. Over the last five years, we have worked specifically to increase the underground reservoirs' daily capacity and have brought it up by 22 percent over this time. The reservoirs are being put into use now, with the start of the heating season, and their daily capacity comes to 801 million cubic meters a day, which is a record high in our gas industry's history..."
Discussing the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, Miller said: "... We will build two pipelines along the Black Sea bed to Turkey with a capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas. The project schedule has both pipelines completed by the end of 2019... We have already set up the necessary gas transport infrastructure on the Russian side for delivering gas to the sub-sea pipeline. This will all be ready by the end of this year. Our Turkish colleagues have confirmed all of the permits and the documents...We have already obtained permission to launch front-end engineering on a section within the Turkish economic zone in the Black Sea stretching 250 kilometers from the border of the Turkish and Bulgarian economic zones towards Turkey.This makes us confident that both pipelines will be built on time, by the end of 2019. One pipeline, with a capacity of 15,750 billion cubic meters, will supply the Turkish market, and the second pipeline, as you know, will deliver gas to European consumers. The project calls for the construction of a transit infrastructure via Turkey to European countries."
(Kremlin.ru, October 24)
Putin In Crimea
Speech at the interregional Action Forum in Crimea (Source: Kremlin.ru)
Vladimir Putin took part in the plenary session of the interregional Action Forum, in Yalta, Crimea, organized by the Russian Popular Front (ONF). The main topics on the agenda were: the energy sector, gas supplies, developing Crimea's agriculture sector and tourism, education, housing and preserving cultural heritage sites. During the meeting, discussing the cutting off the water supply by and cut off the power supply by the Ukrainian government in Crimea, Putin said:
"This is close to a crime against humanity, because if you think about the consequences of cutting off a large region that is home to several million people - 2.5 or 2.6 million people - cutting off their power supply in the winter, even here in Crimea, well, this sort of act... The human rights organizations seem to have all swallowed their tongues and are silent, but in reality, this is a serious crime. Think about the hospitals, the children and the elderly. This is a very serious matter. But everyone has been silent about it, as if it were not something we need to discuss. Well, let them be if that's the way they will have it.
"But let me speak frankly. You spoke just now about this matter and I want to share my feelings too. I have great admiration for the way the people here in Crimea and Sevastopol live and react to the events that have taken place, great admiration for their calm and collected behavior, courage, and readiness to stand up for their interests. As for those responsible for these acts, what they did was very foolish and I do not even know exactly what they were hoping to achieve. Did they hope that everyone would fall to their knees and plead for aid? The people who did this were unbelievable idiots."
(Kremlin.ru, October 26)
Research Targets "Anti-State Ideas" In Russian Universities
According to Kommersant newspaper, Nikita Danyuk, pro-rector of Strategic Research and Assessment Institute, that is part of the People's Friendship University of Russia (the University was previously known as the Patrice Lumumba University after the Congolese independence leader Patrice Lumumba and hosted and indoctrinated students from the third world) conducted a research study titled "Scenarios for Russia's development" in 50 Russian universities over the last two years. Concerned that the West was planning to inspire revolutions and the students were one of the main "destoyers",the research surveyed a "potential for protest activity against the state amongst students and professors". The results were submitted "for internal use" to security services and unidentified state agencies. According to Daniyuk, professors and their assistants covertly engaged in "destructive propaganda of anti-state ideas". Daniyuk claimed that society is "most affected by destructive political technologies during the electoral cycle."
(Kommersant.ru, October 24)
According to a follow up in Gazeta.ru, the "Scenarios of Russia's development" project was funded by the presidential administration through designated grants.
(Gazeta.ru, October 24)
South Ossetia
Russia is to allow South-Ossetia citizens to serve in Russia's army, according to the interstate agreement which is expected to be signed at the end of the year. A year ago, Russia and South-Ossetia signed an integration agreement. The international community considers South-Ossetia an integral part of Georgia. However, the integration agreement and the eligibility of South-Ossetians to serve in the Russian army signify that Russia regards South-Osssetia as its own territory.
(Kommersant.ru, October 25)
Chechnya
According to the media outlet "Kavkaz.Realii," the speaker of the Chechen parliament Magomed Daudov, one of the figures closest to Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, physically assaulted the Chechen Chairman of the Chechen High Court Tahir Murdalov. According to the publication, Daudov and his guards used their fists on the judge to force him to resign after a lengthy conflict between the judicial system and Chechen president. Murdalov assumed his post in May 2016, following the resignation of Magomed Karataev.
(Kavkazr.com, October 6)
Magomed Daudov and Ramzan Kadyrov (Themoscowtimes.com)
Judge Murdalov, speaking on national Chechen TV by phone two days laters, denied that he had been struck.
(Novayagazeta.ru, October 8)
Nevertheless, Novaya Gazeta insisted that on October, 6, Daudov came to Murdalov's office, while his guards sealed the High Court building. Novaya Gazeta could not confirm the physical assault, but stated that there was pressure on the judge to resign. According to the publication, the Federal Security Service obtained all the video surveillance from the building's cameras. Russian officials did not react
(Novayagazeta.ru, October 11)
Doping
Former minister of sports Vitaly Mutko, recently involved in the doping scandal and banned from attending the Olympic games in Rio, was promoted to the position of First Deputy Prime-Minister for Sports, tourism and Youth policy. In an article published by Vedomosti, titled "Putin's asymmetrical response to doping scandal", the newspaper quoted a Russian politologist Evgeny Minchenko, saying that the Kremlin is satisfied with Mutko. Andrey Kolesnikov from Moscow's Carnegie Center said that Putin has known Mutko for many years, and for this reason, Mutko "survived" the doping scandal.
(Vedomosti.ru, October 20)
Russian Patriotism
The Federal Security Service (FSB) Civic Council supports the creation of military -patriotic computer games for young population. "Today, when the growing terror threat represents the real danger, it's highly important to strengthen the cooperation between civil society and security services in the field of fighting the terror propaganda", said Vitaly Titov, chairman of the Civic Chamber of the FSB.
(Tass.ru, October 5)
A St. Petersburg regional parliament's member suggested probing the "patriotism" of those who intend to work in governmental positions. The probe should include a test on "the inclination towards anti-Russian propaganda." The applicant who intends to work in governmental positions should demonstrate full support for presidential/governmental policies.
(Ria.ru, October 19)
Social Networks
Russia may block the Linked In social network due to its non-compliance with the local law, which demands that the provider retain all the personal data of Russian users in Russian territory, i.e. the servers must be physically located in Russia. According to the media regulation agency, Roskomnadzor, Linked In violates the law concerning personal data, rights and freedoms of individuals including the right for privacy, of personal and family life. According to a report in Kommersant, Moscow's court upheld Roskomnadzor's position. The decision to block the service was yet not enforced as Linked In has appealed to a higher court.
(Kommersant.ru, October 25)
News In Brief
· On October 27, the Meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council was held in Belarus. (Government.ru, October 27)
Strange But True
The St. Petersburg Eparchy of the Russian Orthodox church urged citizens and Russian orthodox Christians to refrain from Halloween day celebrations. According to the Eparchy, Halloween frequently turns into senseless partying which leads to "various excessive behavior". The Eparchy urges celebrating National Unity Day on November 4, instead of Halloween.
(Echo.msk.ru, October 27)
