The hostilities in Ukraine have been going on for almost three years now. It appears that Russian forces have suffered heavy losses. Despite the protracted war, the Russian authorities avoid sharing data on Russian losses. The last time, over two years ago, Russia's former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian losses amounted to 5,937 people killed.[1] However, a Russian opposition media outlet, "Mediazona," was able to confirm at least 79,819 deaths of Russian servicemen from February 24, 2022, when hostilities launched, through November 19, 2024.[2] At times, Russian officials let the information about hostilities and associated casualties slip. This time, it appears that State Secretary-Deputy Minister of Defense Anna Tsivileva, during a roundtable discussion in the State Duma in November 2024, inadvertently revealed the number of Russian soldiers missing in action.
On December 3, 2024, Telegram news media, "ASTRA," published[3] a video clip of a roundtable discussion held in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. The broadcast, streamed on the official Duma website, covered the meeting of the Committee on Labor, Social Policy, and Veterans' Affairs, and was focused on providing social support for participants in the war in Ukraine. During the broadcast, State Secretary - Deputy Minister of Defense Anna Tsivileva (who is related to Russian President Vladimir Putin[4]) disclosed that recently all men who had signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense had started to take DNA tests. She added that the DNA tests are free, and are also taken by relatives of soldiers, who contact the department to access the database at the Ministry of Internal Affairs – and that there have been 48,000 such requests.
A screenshot of the post by Astra's Telegram channel dedicated to the round table of the Committee on Labor, Social Policy and Veterans' Affairs of the State Duma. The video clip enclosed shows a report by State Secretary - Deputy Minister of Defense Anna Tsivileva. (Source: "ASTRA Telegram channel.").[5]
According to the "ASTRA" media outlet, relatives of Russian soldiers (with whom the publication's journalists spoke) said that DNA testing could be done for free only if a soldier had officially received the status of "Missing In Action" (MIA). The deputy minister, then, was referring to 48,000 applications from relatives of the servicemen who were MIA. In addition, in October 2023, the country's main newspaper, "Rossiyskaya Gazeta," also reported[6] that close relatives of missing persons would undergo DNA testing (in compliance with the law on state genomic registration). According to ASTRA, similar information was also being disseminated in social media groups of relatives of missing soldiers. The relevant regulations[7] on DNA testing came into force on May 15, 2024; it is thus very likely that applications from the relatives of missing soldiers were received during mid-May through early November 2024.
After the Deputy Minister's report, the head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, who was also present at the round table, urged the participants not to disclose the figures on missing persons: "This is such closed, sensitive information. When we draw up the final [documents], these figures also should not 'float' anywhere" [i.e., the numbers should not appear on any final document]. Anna Tsivileva replied that she had not specified the number of missing persons, but only the number of requests from relatives: "They [the relatives] will find many. Therefore, this number is precisely the number of requests, and not statistics" on the number of MIA fighters.
According to ASTRA, a reader managed to record the broadcast. At the moment, the video of the roundtable is not available on the Duma website.[8]
There is no doubt that the Kremlin possesses data and statistics on the Russian Army's losses in Ukraine (to the extent possible, given the difficulties of identifying and searching for missing persons and the fallen in the war zone). However, authorities are generally wary of sharing this information with the public, lest it foster discontent or give rise to other negative consequences.
[1] Www.rbc.ru/politics/21/09/2022/632ab1759a7947822563d0e8, RBK media, "Shoigu Named Russia's Losses in Hostilities in Ukraine, " September 21, 2022.
[2] Zona.media/casualties, Mediazona, November 22, 2024.
[3] T.me/astrapress/69674 ASTRA Telegram channel, December 3, 2024.
[4] See, e.g., www.proekt.media/investigation/anna-tsivileva/, Proekt" media, January 19, 2022.
[5] T.me/astrapress/69674 ASTRA Telegram channel, December 3, 2024.
[6] Rg.ru/2023/10/09/blizkie-rodstvenniki-propavshih-bez-vesti-sdadut-dnk-analiz.html, "Close Relatives of Missing Persons to Undergo DNA Testing," Rossiyskaya Gazeta, October 9, 2023.
[7] Rg.ru/2024/05/01/rodstvennikov-propavshih-bez-vesti-lic-obiazali-sdavat-dnk.html, "Relatives of Missing Persons Are Required to Submit DNA Tests, " Rossiyskaya Gazeta, May 1, 2024.
[8] Duma.gov.ru/news/60440/ the State Duma website, November 26, 2024.