Will The Anti-U.S. Islamist Pole Of Qatar And Turkish President Erdogan Triumph Under Trump?

"I think he [Biden] has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades," said former CIA director and defense secretary Robert Gates.

Here are two examples: The day he took office, President Biden delisted the Houthis as a terrorist organization and relaxed sanctions on Iran. In 2021, he pulled out of Afghanistan, surrendering to the Taliban coup in which 13 American soldiers were killed. Did the Biden administration get anything in return? Evidently not – to the detriment of the security and interests of the U.S. and its allies.

What about the takeover of Syria by Sunni jihadis led by Abu Muhammad Al-Joulani – now known as Ahmed Al-Sharaa? The Iranians and the Russians were severely harmed. Isn't this good? Indeed, it is a temporary improvement, but the question remains: Is the replacement of the Iranian Shi'ite Islamists in Syria – representing 10% of the Islamic world – by Sunni jihadis who are cut from the same cloth as the Taliban, really a cause for celebration? Moreover, these Sunni jihadis now controlling Syria emanate from the 90% Sunni majority. On second thought, maybe not so good.

The murderous Syrian regime of Bashar Al-Assad was not replaced by the Syrian secular democratic opposition living abroad, but by the most extreme of jihadis – a diverse range of groups, some from Central Asia. The charm offensive by Al-Sharaa towards the West should not mean much to an experienced leader like Trump. Al-Sharaa and his terrorist Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham organization remain Islamist jihadis.

Is that something to celebrate? The answer is no. These terrorists are already in touch with the Iranian regime – the same regime that has never stopped plotting to assassinate Trump.[1]

Russia too has not yet left Syria, and its departure is not imminent. Most likely, Al-Sharaa will work out a new deal with Russia for it to stay.

International relations between adversaries are complex and tough to navigate. But President Biden's approach was a catastrophe.

President-elect Trump is known as a down-to-earth politician, the shrewdest in the West and one who goes for real deals. As a seasoned player who has had wins (for example, in 2016) and losses (for example, in 2020), he is not easily fooled. He is known for his transactional approach – getting something on the ground before giving something in return. Considering Biden's miserable approach, Trump's transactional approach seems the most promising for America, even so late in the game.

But even his transactional approach can also become a trap, especially since he is facing leaders no less shrewd than he is – the Qatari ruling family and Turkish President Erdogan, both of whom he unjustifiably considers to be friends.

As Islamists, these two embody 15 centuries of Islamic history, which saw Islam expand from Mecca in the Arabian desert to the borders of China and France.[2]

Trump should never underestimate Islamist leaders who adhere to Islamic history and its lessons when they face a far stronger enemy like the U.S. There is no end to their ability to maneuver and deceive, pretending to be friends while they operate as enemies.

Here is the trap into which Trump may fall with his down-to-earth transactional approach: If he continues to embrace these leaders once he assumes office, this will mark the ultimate victory of the Islamist anti-U.S. pole of Qatar and Erdogan. In the long run, it will endanger American security, American interests, and the interests of America's proven allies in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel – for generations to come, just like the loss of Afghanistan.

Qatar and Erdogan may make a small concession to Trump, and get much more in return. Since Qatar is Hamas and Hamas is Qatar, they may, on his first day in office, present him with the American hostages that have been held captive in Gaza for 461 days – reminding Americans of Ronald Reagan. Qatar and Erdogan know how important this is for Trump. However, they will get much more in exchange. Here are just a few examples:

1. The Islamist terrorist regimes of Syria and Afghanistan will be legitimized.

2. Trump will inadvertently pardon Qatar for its responsibility for 9/11 – that is, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of the attacks and former Qatari government employee, will never stand trial, and Qatar's role will never be exposed.

3. Trump will also inadvertently pardon Qatar for its spying on Republican lawmakers who oppose Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood,[3] and for its disregard of the Department of Justice order to register its Al-Jazeera channel in accordance with the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).[4]

What should happen is a Trump confrontation with Qatar and Erdogan because of what they have been doing to the U.S. and its allies for years.[5] Trump demanded in 2017 that Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Aal Thani stop funding Islamist terrorism (see former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster's memoir, Qatar Weekly Update No. 1, The Qatar Monitor Project (QMP) – A New MEMRI Project In Defense Of The U.S. And Western World – UPDATED With Qatar Weekly Updates (QWU) Nos. 1 and 2). But Qatar did not abide by Trump's demand.

Biden failed miserably. Trump should not recycle Biden's approach, and should recognize that Qatar and Erdogan are enemies despite their incredible skill in presenting themselves as friends, and as firefighters when they are actually arsonists. Trump would achieve the release of all the hostages if he were only to hint that it is conceivable that the CENTCOM base could be relocated out of Qatar. In fact, he owes this to the Saudis and the Emiratis, who are his true allies.

If Trump clings to Qatar and Erdogan against these allies, he should not then wonder why his true allies, the Saudis and the Emiratis, are drifting towards America's adversaries, China and Russia.

* Yigal Carmon is President and Founder of MEMRI.