The Russian media outlet Topwar.ru noted that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria represents a blow to Moscow's prestige. It also stated: "Turkey is the obvious beneficiary of the Islamist coup in Syria; it is taking full advantage of the fact that Russia's foreign policy influence is weakened by the military conflict in Ukraine, which consumes a lot of resources."
(Source: Rossaprimavera.ru)
Below is the Topwar.ru article:[1]
'Turkey Conducted Several Successful Military-Political Actions'
"Many lines have already been devoted to the offensive of pro-Turkish Islamist militants and the expeditious downfall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime in Syria, as well as to the reasons why this happened, but much less attention has been paid to the consequences of these events. And the latter are, in fact, far from being as optimistic as some experts and analysts write.
"Turkey is the obvious beneficiary of the Islamist coup in Syria. It is taking full advantage of the fact that Russia's foreign policy influence is weakened by the military conflict in Ukraine, which consumes a lot of resources. Over the past two years, Turkey conducted several successful military-political actions: the Third Karabakh War, which ended with the elimination of Nagorno-Karabakh, was waged with its active support and covert participation, and the overthrow of the government of Bashar Al-Assad, which will allow Turkey to annex new lands and install its puppet at the helm of the 'new Syria.'
"Both military and political actions were, no matter what anyone says, carried out against Russia's allies. And they both ended in triumph for Turkey and its leader Recep Erdogan. Now Moscow, which has fallen into a certain degree of dependence on Turkey (in particular, parallel import is carried out through this country), will find it much more difficult to exert pressure on it, as its [political] leverage means are decreasing. Turkey, on the contrary, can now exert more and more influence and pressure on Moscow.
'No One Knows How Erdogan Will Behave After Achieving His Goals'
"After the radical Islamists' victory in Syria, one thing is obvious: the country that existed in recent years will be no more. Something will be seized by Turkey, something - by Israel (which is actually concerned about the victory of Islamist militants, who are already promising to start a "march" to the Promised Land in the future), and then there are the Kurds with the idea of Greater Kurdistan...
"No one knows how Erdogan will behave after achieving his goals – whether he will decide to start a big war against the Kurds, or the Americans will be able to prevent him from making this step, and [then] we will again see some sort of agreements [between Ankara and Washington], which, however, may not be lasting. Be that as it may, the war in the Syrian sands is far from over.
"However, it is not only about borders, Syria will also become another country where radical Islamists achieved a victory. The victory of jihadist (essentially terrorist) groups will certainly mean radical Islamization of yet another Middle Eastern country and, probably, the establishment of a jihadist regime in Damascus.
"In addition, the victory of pro-Turkish jihadist groups means a weakening of Iran's influence in the region, which has already suffered several crucial political losses recently. Iran will now no longer be able sufficiently supply Hizbullah in Lebanon (which is half-defeated by Israel), as its supply routes will now be cut off.
"If after the Hamas attack on Israel (which clearly happened with Iran's participation) it seemed that Iran had strengthened its position and Tel Aviv lost its ground, now things look quite different. Here, for example, is what Bloomberg writes about the change of balance of power in the Middle East:
"'Israel was sucked into a grinding, globally unpopular war in Gaza. Its northern territory was depopulated because of attacks by Lebanese Hizbullah. The Houthis of Yemen bankrupted the Israeli port of Eilat through attacks on Red Sea shipping. Iran fired missiles and drones at Israeli cities... Fourteen months on, Hamas has been devastated and its leaders killed... Hizbullah has been badly bloodied – and forced to accept a ceasefire... Iranian missiles didn't cause much damage to Israel, but the Israeli response shredded Iran's air defenses… Now Syria, a keystone of Iran's regional strategy, has fallen…'[2]
"However, Iran's problems are its own, and they do not concern Russia. Thus, let's get straight to what it all this means for Russian Federation.
'Now Turkey Has Greater Leverage Against Russia'
"The collapse of the Assad regime and the changed balance of power in the Middle East will most likely mean that the Russian Armed Forces will be forced to withdraw from the region.
"Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president's press secretary, said that Russia's military presence in Hmeimim and Tartus is the subject of a 'serious conversation' with future Syrian authorities, but it seems unlikely that Turkey and jihadist groups under its control would allow Russia to maintain a military presence in the region.
"What's more, even the withdrawal of the Russian military contingent may turn out to be problematic, since all communications rely on the sea route from Novorossiysk to Tartus, as well as on air supply, and it is not a problem for Turkey to block the airspace and close the straits under some plausible pretext.
"Theoretically speaking, Erdogan could even put forward some conditions for maintaining the Russian military base in Syria (which is unlikely), but he would probably demand something in return. Now Turkey has bigger leverage against Russia. Erdogan has repeatedly demonstrated that he is ready to use the "Russian issue" to improve his relations with the West (it's worth remembering the performance with the approval of Finland and Sweden's application for membership to NATO and the so-called 'peace summit' in Switzerland), thus the Syrian issue will be, no doubt, used by him accordingly.
"In general, despite the triumphant news regarding the progress of the SVO,[3] it should be noted that over the past two years the foreign policy balance of power has changed not in Russia's favor. NATO has approached even closer to Russia's borders, [Moscow] influence in the Middle East has been lost, and dependence on China, Turkey and Arab countries grew. While focusing on the military conflict in Ukraine, which is of course important, Russia has lost its influence in other regions.
"In addition, attempts in the media sphere aimed at demonstrating that Russia was a key player in Syria (although in reality the situation was a bit different) and also enjoys enormous influence in Africa (i.e. Russia-Africa summits), created a picture in the mind of the Russian common man that did not quite correspond to reality, which collapsed and caused disappointment to many people after the events in Syria.
"Well, the fall of Syria has not been catastrophic for Russia, naturally, since its influence in the Middle East had been limited before. However, the blow to Moscow's political prestige was certainly not inconsequential. In addition, as mentioned above, there is a high possibility of increased pressure from Turkey on Moscow, which has long dreamed of a 'Grand Turan.'
"I remember that back in 2021, Erdogan received a map of the 'Turkic World' as a gift from the leader of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party, Devlet Bahçeli. On the map, Russia's southern regions, as well as most of Siberia, were labelled part of the 'Grand Turan.' At the time, the Russian Foreign Ministry did not find 'anything wrong with it,' although it was, to put it mildly, an alarm bell..."
[1] Topwar.ru/255374-turcija-usilivaet-svoe-vlijanie-za-schet-rossii.html, December 12t, 2024; The article was writtenby Viktor Biryukov.
[2] Bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-09/assad-s-fall-shows-russia-iran-and-hamas-made-a-bad-bet. December 9, 2024.
[3] SVO – Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the official term in Russia for the war in Ukraine.
