Tensions Deepen Between Iran And Afghan Taliban On Helmand River Issue – Taliban Forces Twitter Account Tweets Amid Bloody Border Clashes: 'If The Islamic Emirate's Elders Give Permission... The Mujahideen Will Conquer Iran Within 24 Hours, Allah Willing'

In recent weeks, tensions between Iran and the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan have risen sharply over the sharing of water from Helmand River, a 1,150-kilometer water system emerging in Maidan Wardak province of Afghanistan and traversing a short distance in Iran before feeding into the Lake Hamoun marshes on the Iran-Afghan border.[1]

According to the Afghan Iranian Water Treaty of March 1973, Afghanistan is expected to provide 850 million cubic meters water to Iran every year from the Helmand River.[2] However, due to climate change and related issues, Afghanistan has been facing drought-like situations in recent years, while Iran has been pressing for its share of water, leading to border clashes which seem to go unreported by the Taliban-controlled Afghan media outlets.

Helmand flows a short distance into Iran (image: YouTube.com/@divineguidance833)

On May 20, Iran's ambassador to Afghanistan Hassan Kazemi Qomi issued a clear warning to Taliban rulers, saying they must clarify the issue of Iran's water rights "within a month."[3] The Iranian envoy said: "If there was water and the Taliban did not provide it to the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, then it is clear how it should act on this issue, which is one of the basic rights of the Iranian nation, and it should happen during this one month."[4]

Diplomats are known for using nuanced language, but the Iranian ambassador's statement was blunt. Qomi stated: "The Taliban officials know that they must engage in constructive interaction with their neighbors if they want to have a strong, stable government in their country that includes all of the people's representatives and the country moves toward peace, stability, independence, territorial integrity, and prosperity."[5]

A few days before the ambassador's warning, President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran also spoke stern words to the Taliban rulers on this issue. After inaugurating a market in a Pakistani border town, Raisi asked the Taliban leaders of Afghanistan to allow a visit by technical experts to determine the level of water in Helmand, saying farmers in the Iranian regions of Sistan and Baluchistan were getting affected. "I warn the rulers of Afghanistan to give water rights to the people of Sistan and Baluchistan," Raisi said and vowed, "we will not allow the rights of our people to be violated."[6] "Take my words seriously," the Iranian president insisted.[7]

After the Iranian president's warning, an Afghan Taliban official known as General Mobin posted a video in which he took a bucket of water from a river and, offering it to Iranians, mocked them, saying: "Take this and don't attack us! We're terrified!"[8] According to a Pashtu report carried by ABN Pashto, a video of an Iranian soldier was also circulated on social media in which he warned that the Afghan Taliban are too small for us to attack them, and that the Taliban won victory not through war but through betrayal.[9] However, the date of the video could not be ascertained.

Iranian ambassador Qomi appeared on Tolo News TV to criticize the Taliban rulers

On May 19, Jalil Moheby, an Iranian who previously served as secretary of the Headquarters of the Restoration of Virtue and Prevention of Vice Department in Iran, said in a series of Farsi-language tweets that the best way for Iranians confront the Afghan Taliban is to create an army of fellow Afghans in the Iranian armed forces.[10]

Afghans living in Iran are our compatriots and they showed great courage in the war against the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria, Jalil Moheby said, adding: "The Taliban do not have the courage and ability to confront our armed forces, but it is necessary that they know their  limits."[11]

The Taliban's Largely Good Relations With Iran

Iranian leaders' escalation of the war of words on the Helmand water issue is unprecedented for Afghans and the Taliban regime. Before they took power in August 2021 and even after that, Afghan Taliban have enjoyed a largely cordial relationship with Iran. The Iranian government even honored this relationship by allowing the Taliban to take control, in February 2023, of the Afghan Embassy in Tehran despite the fact that the international community is yet to recognize the government led by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the ruling Taliban jihadi organization).[12]

Before August 2021, the Afghan Taliban delegations visited Iran several times to seek support in their fight against the U.S. and NATO forces[13] –  and possibly in return for providing shelter and training ground to the Fatemiyoun Brigade militia in Afghanistan.[14] Iran has also regularly deployed Shi'ite Afghans from the Fatemiyoun Brigade in Afghanistan to fight in Syria.[15]

Currently, there are also reports of regular positive interactions between the two countries. On May 20, the deputy chief of staff of the Afghan ministry of defense Haji Mali Khan Siddique met with the deputy chief of staff of Iran Bahram Hosseini Mutlaq. In the meeting, the two delegations discussed various issues, especially the need for a joint mechanism to resolve border issues through dialogue and negotiations.[16]

In May 2023, Tehran and Kabul also inked a bilateral agreement on export and import of medicines.[17] In May 2023, Afghan and Iranian authorities held talks over the issue of Afghan prisoners who were sentenced to death in Iran. According to the deputy spokesperson of the Afghan foreign ministry, as a result of the talks, around 200 Afghan prisoners were saved from execution with hundreds being deported or their sentences converted to life terms.[18]

The Taliban Rulers Reject Iran's Claims

However, amid the routine bilateral interactions, first Iran's direct threats from President Ebrahim Raisi and then the Iranian ambassador in Kabul have created a war-like situation. On May 25, a few days after ambassador Qomi's statement, the Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected Iran's demand to allow Iranian experts to visit and determine the water level in Helmand River, arguing that such a step was against the Helmand water sharing pact of 1973.[19]

In a statement shared on Twitter, Zabihullah Mujahid said that in recent years there has been a severe drought in various provinces of Afghanistan and in this situation, the repeated requests for water by the Iranian authorities and a series of inappropriate statements in the media are harmful.[20] Such statements will ruin the political relations of the two brotherly countries, he added.

Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, speaking in Dari at a gathering in Kabul, said Afghanistan is committed to the Helmand water agreement. However, the said treaty was executed years ago, that Iran must take that agreement in context and in the emerging climate change issues, and be attentive to the current situation of water scarcity in Afghanistan, Muttaqi said, adding Tehran must not make the water-sharing problem a political issue between the two countries.[21]

Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid

Zalmay Afghanyar, a political analyst, accused Iran of unilaterally benefitting from the river water. "The Iranians for the past 50 years have used Afghan water for free," Afghanyar said.[22] According to a report in the Pashtu-language daily Wrazpanra Wahdat, Stana Gul Sherzad, the leader of Afghan Millat Party, urged the Taliban government not to allow Iran to construct a dam on the river, saying it will not be in Afghan interest to hold talks and sign any new pact with Iran.[23]

On May 20, a Dari-language article published on the Government Dailies website accused officials in "Afghanistan's neighboring countries," meaning Iran, of making irresponsible statements that are against the bilateral relations and principles of neighborliness. "Among others, we can mention the threatening statements of the president of Iran, regarding the water rights of the Helmand river," it said, adding: "Afghanistan is a country that neither destroys anyone's rights nor allows anyone to destroy its rights."[24]

Other Contentious Issues – Heading For Border War

In addition to the water-sharing dispute, clashes between the borders forces of the two countries have become regular recently. On May 26, Afghan media  tweeted a video according to which the Taliban border guards were seen preventing the Iranian side from carrying out works along the border, in some cases forcibly resisting the construction of border fortifications by Iranians.[25]

Earlier, regular clashes between the two countries have also taken place on the Iran-Afghan border between the security forces. In December 2021, just weeks after the Taliban took control of power in Kabul, security forces of the two countries fought in the border areas of Nimroz province, leading to the Afghan Taliban capturing five border outposts of the Iranian forces.[26]

In April 2022, the two countries almost fought a war after the Afghan Taliban forces wanted to pave a road alongside the border but were prevented, leading them to seize an Iranian military vehicle that had allegedly entered Afghan territory.[27] The incident had caused the temporary closure of the border.

Smuggling drugs into Iran has also been a recurring issue between the two countries. On May 22, 2023, events were held in Afghanistan to mark the seventh anniversary of the death of Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the emir of the Afghan Taliban who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan's Baluchistan province when returning from Iran in 2016. While it was known that Mansour used to travel on a Pakistani passport, an activist media group tweeted on May 23 that the slain the Taliban emir used to smuggle drugs such as hashish and cannabis to Pakistan and Iran from Helmand and other areas of Afghanistan.[28]

"The mujahideen will conquer Iran within 24 hours, Allah willing," warns Taliban Twitter account.

Tehran has regularly executed Afghans accused of smuggling drugs into Iran. In 2010, Iran repatriated to Afghanistan the bodies of at least 40 prisoners after executing them on various charges.[29] In March 2015, Iran executed three Afghans over drug smuggling charges.[30] And now the Afghan Taliban officials have claimed that around 200 Afghan prisoners were saved from execution in Iran due to bilateral engagements.[31]

The Iran-Afghan clashes have not appeared suddenly after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021. Some issues have lingered on for years, such as the Iranian government sending hundreds of Afghans, who are poor and travel to Iran in search of jobs, to fight in Syria and Iraq for low salaries.[32] However, the Helmand water-sharing dispute is new and threatens the Taliban's ties to Tehran as well as the stability of their jihadi regime.

In late May 2023, clashes between the Iranian and Afghan Taliban forces took a serious turn. According to reports emerging on social media, Iranian security forces "fired artillery shells, landing in Afghanistan's Zaranj city" and several people were killed; a Taliban fighter fired an RPG at an Iranian outpost; the Taliban forces were seen moving tanks and deploying heavy weaponry near the border; the Nimruz border crossing point was closed by the authorities on both the sides; Iranian forces were seen transferring their dead and wounded to a hospital.[33]

On May 27, a Taliban account on Twitter that appears to belong to the Badri Unit, an elite commando force of the Afghan Taliban tweeted: "If the elders of the Islamic Emirate give permission for the mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate, the Islamic Emirate's mujahideen will conquer Iran within 24 hours, Allah willing. Iran is playing a game of cat and mouse with the West; in fact, they are the same. But if it is faced with the truth, it will be destroyed from the map, Allah willing."[34]

* Tufail Ahmad is Senior Fellow at MEMRI.