Two months have passed since the military campaign led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which resulted in the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad's regime and HTS imposing itself as a de facto government in Damascus. However, the situation in northern Syria remains markedly different. Since that time, the pro-Turkish factions, calling themselves the "Syrian National Army" (SNA), have escalated attacks on the Tishreen Dam area, located on the Euphrates River between Kobani and Manbij. Their goal is to seize control of this strategic dam from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but despite the intensity of their attacks, including shelling and airstrikes launched by Turkish drones and warplanes, they have made little tangible progress.
Simultaneously with the HTS campaign against the Syrian regime, which began on November 27, 2024, the SNA factions exploited the chaos to target areas where Kurdish forces (the Afrin Liberation Forces) and the SDF were deployed. These attacks were focused on the Shahba/Tal Rifaat pocket north of Aleppo – home to about 150,000 IDPs from the Kurdish region of Afrin since 2018 – as well as parts of the Manbij region. The SNA quickly gained the upper hand after Kurdish forces and the SDF withdrew toward the Euphrates River. This withdrawal turned the Euphrates line into a volatile front for nearly two months, with fierce fighting at two key locations: the Tishreen Dam and the Qaraqozak Bridge.
The Tishreen Dam (Source: X)
Turkey's Broader Strategy To Prevent The Kurds From Playing A Significant Role In Syria's Future Political Landscape
The Tishreen Dam, the second-largest dam in Syria, holds significant economic and military value. Completed in the late 1990s, it controls an artificial lake that provides drinking water, irrigation, and electricity to tens of thousands of people, particularly in Kobani and Manbij. It also powers water pumping stations supplying Aleppo. Despite Turkey's blockade of the Euphrates River and declining water levels, the dam remains vital to regional infrastructure. It is also a key strategic crossing point over the Euphrates, making it a military prize for anyone seeking control of northern Syria. The SDF took the dam from ISIS in 2015, and its control played a pivotal role in subsequent operations, such as the liberation of Manbij in 2016.
Turkey justifies its military actions in northern Syria by citing national security concerns, portraying the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara considers a "terrorist organization." Despite the SDF's denials and attempts to engage the international community, Turkey persists in its military strategy. Many Kurds believe Turkey's narrative is aimed at preventing them from becoming a political actor in Syria's future and from achieving autonomy. Ankara's approach in northern Syria appears to be part of a broader strategy to suppress Kurdish political ambitions.
Turkey's objectives go beyond confronting the SDF. It seeks to destabilize the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which represents Kurdish interests in northern Syria. By targeting infrastructure like the Tishreen Dam, Turkey aims to cripple the region's economy, worsen living conditions, and potentially provoke popular discontent, which could be used to rally support for Turkey's proxy factions or even for the regime in Damascus. Furthermore, Turkey views the growing influence of Kurdish-led governance in northern Syria as a threat to its own Kurdish population, estimated at around 30 million.
Turkey's military tactics in the region are part of a broader strategy to assert control and prevent the Kurds from playing a significant role in Syria's future political landscape. For the Kurds, the Tishreen Dam represents not just a vital resource, but also a symbol of resistance and survival. Its loss would have devastating economic repercussions, especially given Turkey's ongoing use of water and electricity as weapons against the Kurdish population. The risk of regional destabilization is high, affecting not only Kobani but extending along the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border. The presence of ISIS and other groups seeking to exploit the chaos further complicates the situation.
Washington Must Pressure Ankara
The Kurdish forces, however, continue to resist, demonstrating resilience in the face of sustained attacks. Their use of military strategies such as tunnels and FPV drones, locally known as "Brusk," showcases their adaptability and determination. The ongoing struggle over the Tishreen Dam threatens to escalate into a broader regional conflict, drawing in not only local actors but also international ones. Should the situation worsen, it could reignite instability across the region and fuel the resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS, with disastrous consequences for Syria, Iraq, and beyond.
In this volatile context, the international community – particularly the United States – has a key role to play in mediating between Turkey and the SDF to prevent further escalation. The U.S. has supported the SDF in the fight against ISIS, and it is in its interest to prevent a return to extremism in the region. The situation in northern Syria is fragile, and a carefully managed diplomatic solution is essential to avoid further conflict and ensure long-term peace and stability. Washington must also exert pressure on Ankara to stop its hostilities toward the Kurdish people and to seek a peaceful resolution that respects their rights and aspirations.
*Çeleng Omer, a prominent economist from Kurdish-led North and East Syria, is a former resident of Afrin and professor at Afrin University. He was forced to flee the region due to the ongoing Turkish occupation.
