Unmasking The Religious Dimensions Of Hizbullah's Decades Of Planning For An October 7-Style Invasion And Massacre Of Jews

Introduction

Since the 2006 Israel-Hizbullah war, Hizbullah has been speaking openly, in Arabic and in explicit detail, of its plan to carry out a future massacre in Israel. Hizbullah's plan, two decades in the making, was to begin by invading the Galilee using missiles, rockets, and drones, along with advanced technology, intelligence, and surveillance, and with a tunnel network far more extensive than Hamas's. Yet Hamas's October 7 attack turned out to have preempted what Hizbullah had been planning – plans that were confirmed by documentation found by Israeli forces in their counteroffensive in southern Lebanon.

Hizbullah, once recognized as the most heavily armed nonstate actor in the world, released, on October 8, 2024, a detailed infographic with statistics of the 3,194 operations it claims to have carried out against Israel since October 8, 2023, breaking them down into attacks on border outposts, communities, military positions, planes and drones, military camps and bases, military airports, and concentrations of forces. For these, it said, it had used guided and ballistic missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, artillery, and sniper rifles, along with aerial defense systems, an "air force," and other weapons. It claimed that with all this, it had killed and wounded over 2,000 Israelis and caused the evacuation of over 100 communities, displacing 300,000 people.

Reiterating its intentions to attack Israel, Hizbullah's open plans included by firing missiles at and storming the Galilee, Golan, the Hula Valley, Tel Aviv, and all of "pre-1948 Palestine." It has particularly emphasized Israeli army outposts and bases, and air force bases from Kiryat Shmona to Palmachim Airbase in Israel's west central region, Ben Gurion Airport, and the Ilan and Asaf Ramon International Airports in the south. Other targets it has named include petrochemical plants, biological research institutes, the Dimona and other "nuclear facilities," nuclear waste disposal sites, and storage facilities for nuclear warheads "located either within cities or in their vicinity." It even singled out ammonia storage facilities in Haifa – which when struck, it said, would incur as many casualties as a nuclear bomb – or five. This is an echo of the August 4, 2020 explosion of ammonium nitrate in Beirut port, a blast that killed and wounded more than 7,000 Lebanese and caused $15 billion in damage. Many Lebanese still blame Hizbullah for the explosion.

Even after Israel's blows against it over the past months – the detonation of Hizbullah pagers and other communication devices, the killing of its leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and the targeting of weapons stockpiles and banks, Hizbullah continues to warn of its upcoming invasion, using unknown and advanced weapons and other surprises. On October 14-16, in a series of articles on its affiliated news website Al-Khanadiq, Hizbullah said its chain of command had been "rehabilitated," and went on to claim that it has retained 80 percent of its military capabilities; that it continues to receive supplies from Iran; that it has tens of thousands of missiles, including precision, hypersonic, and anti-ship missiles; that it can strike any target in Israel; and that it is preparing for a long war of attrition against Israel.

This report includes extensive translations from MEMRI’s vast archives – the largest in the world of translations of Hizbullah. 

Hizbullah's Plans To Annihilate The Jews Have Religious Overtones

Hizbullah's statements about its planned massacre have religious overtones. Annihilating Israel and the Jews is a "religious obligation" for the group, citing Jewish scripture and referencing sites of Jewish historical and spiritual significance. The Galilee, first on Hizbullah's checklist of targets and closest to its strongholds, holds locations of tremendous religious significance to both Christians and Jews. The group has fired numerous barrages of dozens, if not hundreds, of rockets into the ancient city of Safed, the epicenter of Jewish mysticism, and into Tiberias, the location of the tomb of Moses ben Maimon (1138-1204), one of the most prolific and influential Torah scholars of the Middle Ages, also known as Maimonides and the Rambam. The Galilee is also the childhood home of Jesus of Nazareth, and where, according to Christian belief, Jesus performed miracles and walked on the waters of the Sea of Galilee.

On October 13, 2024, Hizbullah released a short video clip depicting its fighters entering Israel through a large steel gate – symbolizing the gate to the fortress of Al-Qamus that was uprooted by Ali ibn Abi Talib in the 628 CE Battle of Khaybar – and firing weapons and traveling by motorcycle, jeep, and ATV, just as Hamas did on October 7, 2023, to slaughter Jews.

In its communications, Hizbullah often refers to the seventh-century slaughter of the Jews in the Arabian Peninsula by the army of Islam's Prophet Muhammad, during the seventh-century Battle of Khaybar. In fact, Hizbullah considers all its current strikes against Israel to be part of its "Operation Khaybar" in revenge for the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. An October 1 post by the Hizbullah Al-Electroni account featured a 25-second video warning, in Hebrew and English: "The Khyber [i.e. Khaybar] Gate will be uprooted twice, and the field will testify that we are the people of decisiveness."

A video released in February 2023, further highlighting Hizbullah's framing of its current battle against Israel in religious terms, showed the elite Radwan Force simulating an invasion of northern Israel. The narrator quoted the Old Testament in Hebrew: "If there is a serious injury, you are to take life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burn for burn, wound for wound, bruise for bruise. Exodus, 21:24-25." The video concluded with a verse from the Book of Jeremiah: "From the north, disaster will be poured out on all who live in the land [Israel]. Jeremiah 1:14."

This theme, and this verse from Jeremiah, also appeared in an October 2020 video on Hizbullah's media outlet Al-Manar. In it, a Hizbullah official stressed that the next phase of the "resistance" would include two "blades" – Hizbullah missiles and legions of fighters who will storm the enemy's barracks and settlements – in an operation named "The Gates Of Khaybar Will Be Smashed Again."

It is notable that Hizbullah supporters in the West – in the U.S., U.K., Australia, and elsewhere – have revived the historic Muslim call to kill Jews in chants threatening local Jewish communities: "Khaybar, Khaybar, oh Jews, the army of Muhammad will return." This occurred at a September 29 vigil for Nasrallah in Dearborn, Michigan, where it was heard; the crowd chanted "Death to Israel" for good measure.

Following the Israel-Hizbullah ceasefire agreement, and Hizbullah's claim of victory over Israel, the terror organization and its allies led by Iran have openly stated that the current hiatus in the fighting is just an opportunity to regroup for the next round. Their words should not be ignored – in fact, they are justification for Israel, with the help of the U.S. and other allies, to squeeze Hizbullah and Iran further yet, so as to finally destroy the groups' capabilities and any future desire to carry out their promised attacks on Israel.

Hizbullah's Plan, Two Decades In The Making: To Invade The Galilee And Destroy Israel

Days after the September 17-18 detonation of Hizbullah operatives' pagers and other communication devices across Lebanon, came Israel's elimination of the top tier of Hizbullah's leadership, including, on September 27, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. He was killed deep in his bunker, as he and senior Hizbullah officials were reportedly finalizing their plans that would likely have gone into action for the Jewish New Year on October 2 or for the anniversary of October 7. In its Lebanon ground offensive, which began September 30, Israel has found in the tunnels – that North Korean experts are known to have helped construct – anti-helicopter missiles, anti-tank missiles, mortar shells, ammunition, weapons, and explosives, as well as motorcycles, for Hizbullah's "Conquer the Galilee" operation.

Hizbullah believed that its invasion would bring about Israel's destruction. In interviews, and in Arab media and social media posts, Hizbullah officials, including Nasrallah, his deputies, and senior commanders, detailed the organization's goals and aims.

According to these statements, as noted, Hizbullah's plan would begin with the Galilee. In 2019, Nasrallah explained: "Part of our plan, both theoretically and in practice... It is a plan for which we train, and prepare... We have prepared this plan. It is complete. Yes, part of our plan for the next war is to enter the Galilee."

In August 2023, two months before October 7, Hizbullah operations officer "Hajj Jihad" underlined that the plan for the Galilee operation had been in the works for over 15 years. Calling it "one of the most important plans prepared by the Islamic resistance," he added that when the war starts, "we will see Israeli soldiers deserting their posts, and fleeing." He underlined that "the Islamic resistance that will wage this war" will not conduct it "like we have done it in the past" because "in the 17 years since 2006, we have been diligently preparing for this war."

A Member of the Lebanese Parliament from Hizbullah, Elwalid Succariyeh, said in August 2019 that Hizbullah would, in a future conflict with Israel, invade the Galilee, the Hula valley, and all of pre-1948 Palestine: "After the July [2006] war, the concepts changed. The strategy of the resistance is no longer to exhaust the Zionist enemy and to delay its advancement into Lebanon's territory. We are going to war. [Israel] will not invade – we will be the ones to invade. We need to go into the Galilee."

In February 2023, marking the 15th anniversary of the assassination of Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyeh, Hizbullah commanders who were the focus of a report by the organization's Al-Manar TV said that "Hajj 'Imad [Mughniyeh] had and has a positive influence, and will continue to have such influence, inshallah, until the liberation of the Galilee and, indeed, all of Palestine." They added that Hizbullah would "liberate" the Galilee "the next day" if Nasrallah gives the word, and warned Israeli "settlers" to "start leaving this area" because "soon enough they will encounter the resistance at their doorsteps."

Less than 24 hours after Hamas launched its attack on October 7, 2023, on Israel's south, Hizbullah Executive Council Head Hashem Safieddine – who was killed in early October 2024 shortly after being named as Nasrallah's replacement – announced in a speech that what Israel had seen on that day would be seen again, but on a much larger scale, and from Lebanon and Israel's other borders. The Hamas attack, he added, had proved Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assertion that "this plundering entity" – Israel – would be ended. As the crowd chanted "Death to America," he added: "You will witness a deluge of the [Islamic] nation that will sink the entire [Zionist] entity."

In speeches after October 7, 2023, Hizbullah officials set out the organization's goal of mass slaughter. Explaining on December 28, 2023 on Iran's Arabic-language Al-Alam TV, Safieddine stressed that Israel's annihilation was the goal not only of the late IRGC Qods Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani, but also of all the resistance fighters in the region. Eliminating "this artificial and fabricated entity" is, he concluded, the "natural and logical goal of anybody who believes in history." Hizbullah executive council deputy chairman Sheikh Ali Damoush, on August 12, touted Hizbullah's plans for the "coming" attack. The "decision" to wreak vengeance, he said, "has been taken and there is no going back on it, regardless of the repercussions. Its implementation, details and timing are subject to the circumstances on the ground and the availability of opportunities."

A Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese academic, Sadek Al-Naboulsi, also detailed an upcoming plan on August 1, that Hizbullah's elite Radwan Force would enter "occupied Palestine" and that "the Hizbullah flag will be raised on the mountains of the Galilee and on the dome of the Al-Aqsa Mosque." He added: "Israel should start the countdown for its annihilation... Like secretary-general [Nasrallah] said, when this war breaks out, there will no longer be any ceilings or rules." Earlier, on April 21, 2024, he hinted that Hizbullah had waited too long for a pre-October 7 element of surprise, but that it was still preparing to cross into the Galilee and awaited only the order from Nasrallah when the "time is right." Liberating Palestine and annihilating Israel, he added, are fundamental components of Hizbullah's culture.

Hizbullah artillery officer Hajj Muhammad Ali told Al-Manar TV on July 4, 2024 about the upcoming Galilee operation's use of Burkan and Falaq rockets for its invasion. The Burkan rockets, he said, were designed to destroy Israeli forward outposts in the Galilee and would provide active fire support to forces in urban surroundings, while the Falaq rockets were for operations like the "fire belt" maneuvers carried out by the Israel Air Force. The resistance, he said, has been preparing for war with Israel for 17 years, and that only a small part of its weapons and capabilities have been revealed because of the Hizbullah leadership's restrictions on escalation.

Hizbullah's Extensive Tunnel Network, For Use In Its Planned Massacre – Developed Over A Decade

Like Hamas, Hizbullah has long been known to have an extensive network of massive tunnels, and like Hamas, it aims to use them in an attack on and invasion of Israel. It is no secret that Hizbullah shared its tunnel knowhow with Hamas, and trained Hamas in tunnel construction. Destroying these Hizbullah tunnels, many of them built under Lebanese towns, in southern Lebanon is now one of Israel's major strategic goals.

Over a decade ago, in January 2014, Ibrahim Al-Amine, chairman of the board of the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, reported on Hizbullah's expansion of its tunnel efforts. He wrote that Hamas members fighting in Syria had dug tunnels there, similar to the ones excavated by Hamas in Gaza, and that Hamas had previously been trained in tunnel construction by Hizbullah. At that time, he noted, the two terror organizations were cooperating in smuggling arms into Gaza and preparing military operations against Israel.

A May 2016 report by the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Safir stated that Hizbullah could become a "regional power" that "formulates new equations in the region." "Resistance fighters are operating day and night along the Israeli border," it said, "conducting observations, preparing, and digging tunnels that cause the settlers and enemy soldiers to lose sleep."

According to reports in the Lebanese press in January and February 2017 on Hizbullah activity in southern Lebanon, "Hizbullah has concealed forward positions on the international [Lebanon-Israel] border, including tunnels it dug over 10 years ago."

In the run-up to October 7, in July 2023, Hizbullah released a video showing its fighters in a tunnel reviewing an attack plan and then emerging from them to simulate an infiltration of Israel and the capture of an Israeli military outpost. The fighters are armed with Russian-made 9k111 Fagot anti-tank missiles and a Russian ORSIS T-5000 sniper rifle.

Despite Hizbullah's extensive use of tunnel networks against Israel going back to the 1980s, terror tunnels are not just a problem for Israel. Like other innovations by Palestinian jihadi groups – making jihadism cool with airplane hijackings in the 1970s and suicide bombings in the 1990s and onward – Hizbullah's and Hamas's use of tunnels, especially Hamas's for its October 7, 2023 attacks and massacres, will inspire terrorist groups and criminal elements for generations to come.

Hizbullah Discloses Its Military Planning, Including What It Is Targeting And Why – For An October 7-Style Massacre

For years, Hizbullah's leadership and media have been provided glimpses of its military goals beyond invading Israel via the Galilee, including using tunnels. Nasrallah spoke in March 2016 of "all-out war that will know no boundaries or red lines." He said: "We have a whole list of targets... plants, installations, storage facilities, and centers, along with their locations and their precise coordinates," including "many petrochemical plants, biological research institutes, centers, and plants, nuclear plants – not just one – installations for the disposal of nuclear waste, and storage facilities for nuclear warheads." These, he stressed, are "located either within [Israeli] cities or in their vicinity... for example, an installation 10-15 kilometers from Ashdod, or one 20-25 kilometers from Tel Aviv. In some cases, they are right next to cities, only one or two kilometers away."

Nasrallah had already threatened strikes on ammonia storage facilities in Haifa. A month previously, in February 2016, he had said that such a missile strike would have the impact of a nuclear bomb, which if successful could cause tens of thousands of deaths. A year later, in February 2017, he claimed that Israel had decided to move the storage facilities away from Haifa – but that Hizbullah would still be able to reach the ammonia facility, as well as the Dimona nuclear plant. While a strike on the ammonia storage tanks would equal a nuclear attack, he said, an attack on a ship supplying ammonia to Israel would be like five nuclear bombs.

Several pro-Hizbullah Telegram channels shared video footage of a May 2023 Hizbullah military drill in southern Lebanon that simulated an attack on Israeli military bases and vehicles. In it, Hizbullah fighters used infantry tactics, explosives, motorcycles, ATVs, and small drones, and also demonstrated their martial arts skills.

Nasrallah warned that Hizbullah's rockets and UAVs could reach anywhere in Israel in a June 19, 2024 interview adding, "They should expect us in land, air, and sea... They know that no place in the [Israeli] entity will be safe from our rockets and UAVs." He explained: "Our Hudhud [reconnaissance] drone proves this... It's not just a question of quantity, of how many buildings will collapse. A thousand buildings can collapse, and the [Israeli] entity will remain standing, but a smaller number of buildings could be brought down, and the [Israeli] entity will collapse, because it has certain foundations. In any case, they know what I am talking about." He added that the Israelis "also know that what awaits them in the Mediterranean Sea is very significant."

An even more disturbing aspect of Hizbullah's plans was published July 25, 2024, in the Kuwaiti Al-Jarida daily. Citing a "high-ranking source" in Iran's IRGC Qods Force, the daily reported that the IRGC had given Hizbullah bombs and rockets with electromagnetic warheads, some of which could be sent via drone to "any position deep inside Israel." These would disable Israel's communications and power infrastructure, impacting its radar, air force, and ground forces, said the source. Another weapon in Hizbullah's hands, provided by Iran, he said, were "smart fragmentation missiles" that detonate automatically when targeted by Israeli air defense systems, turning into dozens of rockets, along with radar-evading "ghost drones" also provided to the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in Iraq. Adding that the "resistance front" plans include not just stopping an Israeli invasion of Lebanon but "liberating" the Golan and Galilee, he said that these new weapons would eradicate Israel's air superiority, leaving its troops to fight resistance operatives who have spent years preparing for battle.

Hizbullah: We Have Specific Targets – From The Knesset To Dimona's Nuclear Facilities

Hizbullah has laid out its Israeli targets in detail and its successive drone attacks on Israeli military bases and attempted attack on the house of the Israeli prime minister show that it has serious capabilities. Ibrahim Al-Amine, of Al-Akhbar, reported in August 2022 on a Hizbullah "senior jihad commander" and member of its founding generation who had worked with all Hizbullah leaders since its establishment and is now a key figure in carrying out assessments and preparing for the next war with Israel. Quoting the senior official, Al-Amine wrote that that Israel's infrastructure would be destroyed and Israelis "will be pulling bodies out from under the ruins" and that they would be unable to defend their territorial waters, their land border, their vital facilities or even their home front. Hizbullah, said the official, has all the weapons that Iran itself has, and some that it does not.

Al-Amine included in his report a map of potential targets in Israel, along with a list of Hizbullah's missiles and their ranges. Again, quoting the official, he wrote that since 2006, Hizbullah had "reached the point where the resistance [Hizbullah] knows much more about the enemy than the enemy knows about the resistance," and that"one day, we will tell them in advance what we will find on Golda's Balcony [the observation platform at the Dimona nuclear facility]."

Furthermore, on July 27, 2024 Al-Amine wrote that Israel had miscalculated Hizbullah's air force capabilities, and that Israel's surprise would be even greater once it realized the scope of Hizbullah's technology. Israel must prepare, he said, for the "special moment" when Hizbullah drones "occupy the airspace over the triangle of death" – i.e. from airbases near Kiryat Shmona in Israel's northeast to the Palmachim Airbase in Israel's west central region to the Ilan and Asaf Ramon International Airports in the south.

Nabil Qaouq, at the time deputy head of Hizbullah's executive council who was killed by Israel in September, had spoken in January 2021 about IRGC Qods Force commander Soleimani's realization of his "dream" that the "resistance movements" – led by Hizbullah – "would be capable of striking the Israeli Knesset with their missiles, striking the Israeli Ministry of War with their missiles, striking the military and strategic installations throughout the Israeli entity." Hizbullah was now, he added, "capable of surrounding the [Israeli] entity with its long-range precision missiles," which he called "the greatest element of deterrence against the Israeli enemy, as well as an existential threat for the Israeli entity."

Nasrallah had warned in February 2010 that Hizbullah's plans included bringing down buildings in Tel Aviv and striking Ben Gurion Airport, saying on Al-Manar TV: "I'd like to say to the Israelis today: Not only if you attack Al-Dahiya [the Beirut suburb where Hizbullah was based], we will attack Tel Aviv, but if you attack Beirut's Rafiq Al-Hariri Airport, we will attack Ben-Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. If you attack our ports, we will shell your ports. If you attack our oil refineries, we will shell your oil refineries. If you attack our factories, we will shell your factories. If you shell our electricity plants, we will shell your electricity plants." In May 2012, he underlined that Hizbullah would target Israel's transportation hubs, including its seaports and airports: "We are capable – if Allah wills it – of striking very specific targets in Tel Aviv and anywhere else in occupied Palestine. I say to you: The time has come when we will survive, and they will be annihilated."

Israel's October 2024 Invasion Of Southern Lebanon Confirms Hizbullah's Vast Tunnel Network, Stockpiles Of Weapons, And Military Plans

The IDF recently disclosed some of what it has found in tunnels in southern Lebanon in October 2024 and into early November, since crossing into the country. Journalist Benjamin Weinthal toured the Hizbullah tunnels in late October and reported on what was found there, describing, under the Shi'ite village of Rab El Thalathine, which is less than 2.5 kilometers from the Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, ten shafts reaching from civilian homes in the village down into a kilometer of tunnels between 12 and 40 meters deep and two meters tall in places and that could store ammunition, rocket-propelled grenades, and AK-47 assault rifles and house more than 500 gunmen with enough food for weeks. The tunnels reportedly had many emergency exits and were built over the past 15 years.

An interview about the Hizbullah tunnels with one Israeli soldier according to Weinthal described them as more "stable and sophisticated" than the "Gaza metro." Some reports also describe them as generally larger and more structurally sound than those of Hamas.

Under Kafr Kila, a Shia Muslim village in southern Lebanon that had served as a central hub for Hizbullah, the thousands of weapons, launchers, and tactical equipment belonging Hizbullah's elite Radwan elite force were found, as well as an underground shaft that ran several hundred yards, nearly to the Lebanon-Israel border. Israeli officials have said that Hizbullah had planned to invade Israel from the village.

A November 2 report described how the IDF detonated 400 tons of explosives to destroy a Hizbullah tunnel system in a Lebanese village about a half-mile from the Israel-Lebanon border, opposite Kibbutz Misgav Am. At the peak of the fighting over the village, the tunnel system reportedly housed around 1,000 Hizbullah fighters, most from the Radwan Force, awaiting orders for a raid into Israel.

After Israel's Invasion, Hizbullah Continues Threatening Future Attack, Uses Propaganda To Showcase Its Tunnels And Weapons Systems

Even after Israel's invasion and the subsequent ceasefire arrangement, Hizbullah has continued daily to release propaganda about its military capabilities including its tunnels.  For example, on November 3, 2024, it released a one-minute, 27-second video titled "We Will Not Abandon the Arena, Nor Lay Down Our Weapons," a quote from a speech by slain Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The video showcases an underground Hizbullah facility known as Imad 5 – named after slain Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed by Israel in 2008 – used for firing artillery. The video begins with armed Hizbullah operatives in full military gear entering the facility through an underground tunnel, passing by a sign displaying the name "Imad 5 facility." Inside the spacious facility, the operatives gather in front of a large poster of Nasrallah, which features the caption "We swear to [avenge] your blood."

The video is similar to another one from August 16, 2024, Telegram channels affiliated with Hizbullah published a clip titled "Imad 4," which shows in detail an underground facility where trucks carry weapons and men ride motorcycles inside large illuminated tunnels.

Israel's recent successes in Southern Lebanon notwithstanding, Hizbullah asserts that it remains strong and continues to threaten more attacks on Israel. On October 22, 2024, Lebanese Hizbullah's Al-Ahed News website published an article summarizing a speech by the group’s propaganda chief, Muhammad 'Afif, who was killed November 17, 2024, during a press conference in southern Beirut. 'Afif stated that the group's command and control system was working effectively and that the group has restored its military and logistic support lines, with enough "competent fighters, exceeding the needs of the front." He alleged that Hizbullah has increased its "offensive and defensive operations" to an average of 25 per day, explaining that separate attacks on the same location are counted as one operation. 'Afif claimed that Israel responds to Hizbullah attacks on Israeli military targets by killing civilians, vowing that the group would continue to strike the "Zionist north and interior" with heightened "qualitative and quantitative power." He confirmed that Hizbullah was responsible for the October 19 drone attack targeting Netanyahu's house in Caesarea, and pledged that the group would achieve "victory."

A media outlet that supports Hizbullah published an infographic tallying statistics on the group's recent attacks against Israe as of the end of October 2024. The outlet, Al-Khanadeq, released the infographic on its Telegram channel titled "Numbers that Recount the Achievements." The infographic reported that Lebanese Hizbullah had conducted 48 operations targeting Israel on October 25, 2024 – what it called a "record which has been recorded for the first time since the start of the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle." It also noted that on October 24, five Israeli soldiers were killed and dozens more wounded during an ambush "at point blank range" with Israeli forces in Ayta Al-Sha'ab, a village near the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Infographic stats of operations against Israel claimed by Hizbullah, including 48 on October 25, 2024 (Source: Al-Khanadeq media outlet)

Similarly on November 12, 2024, the Hizbullah Military Media Telegram channel provided a summary of what it described as recent developments in the "Battle of the Formidable Might" (Hizbullah's name for its current war against Israel). In this report, Hizbullah claimed that to have struck dozens of strategic targets deep in Israeli territory, including by means of precision missiles that it used for the first time. Hizbullah stressed that it is prepared for a long war and possesses the necessary weapons to wage it. As part of the series of "Khaybar Operations"” it claimed as of that date, 70 operations had been carried out on 33 "strategic targets" deep in Israeli territory. Of these, 22 were said to have been perpetrated in collaboration with the Hizbullah "aerial forces," during which 60 "high-quality drones" were launched with some reaching a distance of 145 kilometers inside Israeli territory. It also claimed that regarding its defensive planning, Hizbullah has taken all the steps necessary to wage a long-term campaign, and its forces possess all the necessary weapons and equipment.

Additionally, the following day, November 13, the Telegram channel of Hizbullah's Warfare Media released a 30-second video titled "This Gathering Will Be Dispersed By Allah and The Men Of Allah," allegedly tallying Israel's losses in the war in southern Lebanon. It claimed that the IDF human losses amounted to over 100 dead, and over 1,000 wounded. It also claimed that 43 Merkava tanks, eight military bulldozers, two armored vehicles, two troop carriers, and one Humvee vehicle were disabled, and over six Hermes drones 450 and 900 reportedly downed.

Hizbullah still sees itself as it is described in a June 2022 report on Al-Manar TV, that focused on its military buildup, showcased its rocket arsenal, and stressed that in the 40 years since its founding, it had made Lebanon a "model of powerful resistance" and deterrence." The narrator stated that "Every new day is an opportunity to increase [Hizbullah's] power," adding, "For 40 years, which equals 14,600 days, the resistance has strengthened its side of the equation, to the point that it has become stronger than ever before."

On November 13, 2024, Hizbullah released an audio recording of a cryptic letter reportedly authored by organization’s new leader Naim Qassem to the group's fighters: "You are the strength of confrontation with the arrogant and tyrants... You are the pride that shakes the foundations of Zionism... You are our hopeful future, Oh rocks of resilience and steadfast earth [..] All eyes turn toward your resistance, Oh men of Allah in the field [of battle], Oh men of Hizbullah, Oh elixir of noble life."

Hizbullah Openly Boasts That It Is Now Regrouping For The Next Round, When It Will Finally Annihilate Israel

Although Hizbullah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, it is very likely to attempt to rebuild its weapons stockpiles, posing a long-term threat not only to Israel but to the U.S. and its other allies in the region. U.S. intelligence agencies say, according to sources briefed on the intelligence, that Hizbullah has been recruiting new fighters and attempting to rearm via both domestic production and via Syria – though Israel warned the Assad regime in Syria in late November that it will pay a "direct price" if it helps Hizbullah rearm.

Currently, according to the agencies, the organization has limited firepower; however, it still has thousands of short-range rockets in Lebanon, and will try to rebuild using weapons factories in neighboring countries that have transportation routes with Lebanon. According to one of the sources, although Hizbullah is set back, it is "designed to be disrupted."

Once the ceasefire came into effect, Hizbullah and Iran both claimed victory, and continue to stress that it is an opportunity to regroup. On November 20, 2024, Ibrahim Al-Amine, of the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, published an article stating that Hizbullah regards the current conflict as just another round in the war with Israel, which must ultimately be eliminated, and will rebuild its military capabilities in order to continue pursuing this goal."

He continued: "But it is [also] our right and our duty to clearly  say that Israel will remain an enemy that must be eliminated... True, we are divided on the basic issue, and therefore honesty compels us to say very calmly that the end of this round of fighting with the enemy does not mean the end of the resistance, and that rebuilding the might of the resistance, in terms of manpower, capabilities and resources, is the task today, and it will gain momentum in the future, and at any point in time."  

On November 27, 2024, after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon went into effect, Hizbullah posted a statement on its social media accounts from ''the Islamic Resistance Operations Room.'' In its statement, Hizbullah declared that it had vanquished the enemy, defeated its army, and was unwavering in two campaigns. Adding that during these two campaigns it had carried out thousands of operations against Israeli military and civilian targets, including those it described as ''strategic and sensitive," it asserted that Israel's ground maneuver in South Lebanon had failed, and that Hizbullah remains on high alert with ''finger on the trigger."

Hizbullah published a propaganda video on its "Islamic Resistance Warfare Media" channel on Telegram on November 25, 2024 that depicted Hizbullah operatives wounded in the September 17 pager attacks as returning to fight in the war and participating in combat on the ground. The video, titled "Despite The Wounds, We Are On The Ground," shows wounded Hizbullah fighters in hospital beds vowing to return to the frontline and "continue on the path" as soon as they recover. The background soundtrack features a segment from a speech by Nasrallah following the pager attacks, about a week before he himself was killed. He warned Israel that it would be confronted by hundreds of those wounded by the exploding devices "ready to resist and fight you" and "even more determined" to continue the war. The video then shows fighters with eye and hand injuries operating rocket launch systems; one says: "Despite the wounds inflicted on us, this resistance will remain the spearhead of the war against global arrogance and the defense of the oppressed worldwide."

On November 29, 2024, Hizbullah's new secretary general Naim Qassem declared in a televised speech that Hizbullah had achieved ''a great victory that surpassed even that which was attained in July 2006 [in the Second Lebanon War]." Acknowledging that the blows dealt by Israel had hurt Hizbullah and caused significant confusion in its ranks, he said that that had lasted about 10 days, but that the organization had reinstated its command-and-control system and retaken the initiative in the campaign. Hizbullah's steadfastness, he argued, had clarified to Israel that it can gain nothing in this battle but more killing and destruction. Thus, he said, Hizbullah had proven that it is fully prepared and that the plans consolidated by its late leader Nasrallah were effective.

Qassem went on to say that the outcome of the "Battle of Formidable Might" – Hizbullah's name for its campaign against Israel launched on September 17, 2024 – was ''a great victory that surpasses even that which was achieved in July 2006," concluding: "We won, because we prevented the enemy from destroying Hizbullah. We won, because we prevented it from eliminating the resistance or weakening it... This is a victory of the resistance, because it persisted and it will continue to persist.'' He added that Hizbullah would operate ''in coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces and at a senior level."

On December 11, 2024, the IRGC-affiliated Iran Military Capabilities Telegram channel wrote that "no system in the world can defeat Hizbullah... The men of Allah in Lebanon still have options that the enemy might call 'crazy.' It added: "Hizbullah is winning. The resistance will include the entire region, and the decisive [victory] is yet to come. The nation is now being tested." A subsequent post stated that according to a "high-ranking military source," "if the armed groups in Syria express goodwill and willingness to cooperate against the oppressive Jews, Iran will leave the past behind and will launch a new phase in the battle against the [Islamic] nation's number one enemy... This call will remain in effect, particularly because they have a religious obligation to liberate Syria's lands that have been plundered in the past and recently."

Underlining its insistence that Hizbullah had won the war, the Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Ghaliboon Telegram channel shared, on December 12, a video about damage in the north of Israel created from segments of an Israeli news story about residents returning to their homes and discussing rebuilding there. The Arabic narration stated: "The [Israeli] north and its shattering – the condition of the north after the ceasefire, the destruction that struck the heart of the settlements."

Additionally, on December 19, Lebanese MP Ibrahim Mousawi of the Hizbullah-affiliated Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc said, at a commemoration of a "martyred" fighter, that the organization would continue its approach "as long as there are generations raised on resistance, loyalty, and allegiance." He added: "We are in a position of power and strength. We have been and will remain so."

Hizbullah Claims Victory – Despite Being Decimated

Israel has eliminated nearly the entire Hizbullah leadership:

• Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

• Fuad Shukr, Hizbullah's top military official, jihad council member, and Nasrallah's right-hand man. The U.S. was offering $5 million for information about him and his whereabouts.

• Ibrahim Aqil, founder and commander of Hizbullah's elite Radwan Force, assassinated along with 16 other commanders. The U.S. was offering up to $7 million for information about him and his whereabouts.

• Ahmad Wehbe, Radwan senior commander, killed along with Aqil.

• Mohammad Surour, Hizbullah drone unit head in charge of the organization's drone and cruise missile attacks on Israel.

• Nabil Qaouk, Hizbullah Preventive Security Unit commander and a member of Hizbullah's central council, and a U.S.-designated global terrorist.

• Hashem Safieddine, head of Hizbullah's executive council, and Nasrallah's likely heir before he was killed.

Additionally:

• Nine were killed and 2,800 wounded across Lebanon in the explosions of hundreds of pagers used by Hizbullah members, in the attack attributed to Israel.

• As of October 7, 2024, Israel had killed over 800 terror operatives, most of them Hizbullah. This includes 90 Hizbullah commanders.

• As of October 7, 2024, Israel had struck 11,000 Hizbullah positions.

• As of October 1, Israel had destroyed half of Hizbullah's entire arsenal.

• Israel continues to strike Hizbullah forces that were violating the ceasefire.

Radwan force members killed in September 20, 2024 strike in Beirut. Source: IDF

Conclusion: What's Next?

Now, three weeks into the three-month Israel-Hizbullah ceasefire, Hizbullah continues to say it has won the war with Israel, on the war, and it is reported that it is attempting to regroup. Yet Hizbullah secretary-general Naim Qassem acknowledged, in mid-December, that Israel had destroyed the organization's supply route via Syria. The key to keeping Hizbullah in a weakened state goes through the bank account of Iran. After the last Israel-Hizbullah war, in 2006, Iran provided significant funding to help Hizbullah rebuild and maintain its support among Lebanon's Shi'ite community. According to an individual close to Hezbollah and familiar with the group's thinking, "Iran is prepared to allocate funds" to do this again – and Hizbullah expects Iran to send advisors to oversee funding and retrain its military ranks. But after decades of U.S. and international sanctions, and its own problems at home, Iran has fewer resources to rehabilitate Lebanon. It would behoove the U.S. to take advantage of the current situation, and to keep bleeding Iran financially so that it cannot rebuild and rearm Hezbollah. Without funds, it will have no weapons, either for itself or for its proxies – the "resistance axis" – in the region. As the new Trump administration is set to take office, there is new momentum and there are new options for Israel and the U.S. to destroy or severely damage the axis of resistance.

*Steven Stalinsky is Executive Director of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).