Welcoming Russian Delegation Led By Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu To North Korea, President Kim Jong Un Sends 'Warm Battle Greetings And Support To The Fighting Army And People Of Russia'

Following a recent trip to North Korea by a Russian delegation led by the Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu, Russian pro-government media outlets claimed the possibility of increased cooperation between the two countries while academic experts remain skeptical. On the occasion of the visit, North Korean President Kim Jong Un extended "warm battle greetings and support to the fighting army and people of Russia."[1]

Sergey Shoigu's Visit To North Korea

On July 25, 2023, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu landed in Sunan International Airport, which is located in a suburb of Pyongyang, to participate, according to the official statement on the part of the Ministry of Defense,[2] in an event commemorating the 70th anniversary of the signing of the armistice that ended the Korean War.[3] The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the visit will "contribute to the strengthening of Russian-North Korean military ties and will be an important stage in the development of cooperation between the two countries."

During the visit, Shoigu met with North Korea's President Kim Jong Un and Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam. In addition, the Russian minister visited the Arms Expo and took part in commemorative events laying flowers at the monuments to Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. According to the North Korean Central News Agency,[4] Shoigu stated during the welcoming of Russian delegation that "the Korean People's Army, closely united around the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, has been tirelessly strengthening its power, glorifying heroic feats in the Patriotic War of Liberation, and as a result became the strongest army in the world."

Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu (right) and the North Korean Minister of Defense Kang Sun-nam (left). (Source: Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation).

A Chinese delegation led by the First Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Hongzhong also participated in the commemorative events in North Korea.

Talks between Kim Jong Un (left) and the Chinese delegation. First Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Hongzhong sits fifth from the right. (Source: North Korean Central News Agency).

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted North Korea to apply stronger isolationist policies, with its borders having been closed since 2021 and a visit by foreign delegations being a rare event. In April 2022, Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora[5] said that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has never visited North Korea, and that no Russian delegation had visited Pyongyang at all in the past two years. In October 2022 it was reported[6] by Russia's Head of the Far Eastern Customs Directorate, Yury Ladygin that trade turnover between Russia and North Korea through the customs of the Far East region has been completely stopped in order to comply with UN sanctions against North Korea. It should be noted that earlier on March 27, 2022, Russia and China vetoed in the UN Security Council a U.S. resolution on strengthening sanctions against North Korea.

The photo depicts the diplomats and staff of the Russian Embassy in North Korea leaving the country after the border closure on the makeshift draisine. Third Secretary Vladislav Sorokin is in black clothing depicted pushing the rail vehicle. (Source: Russian Foreign Ministry Telegram channel.[7] February 25, 2021)

Opinions And Assessments Of The Visit

The somewhat scarce and vague wording used by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the visit of the Chinese delegation, and North Korea's isolationist policies have prompted much speculation on the nature of the visit.

Sergey Shoigu (right) and Kim Jong Un watch a parade commemorating the Korean War. (Source: Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation).

Amid a report[8] and statements of the spokesperson for the White House National Security Council John Kirby[9] about Russian authorities purchasing ammunition, several Russian media and experts argued that the "true" goal of the visit was to facilitate military supplies – mainly 152 mm artillery shells – several Russian media outlets and experts argued that this was the goal of the visit.

For instance, the popular analytical Telegram channel "Older than the Edda" with more than 600,000  subscribers noted[10] on July 27 several of the most promising areas of co-operation between the two countries in terms of military-technical cooperation, including: 100-152 mm ammunition, including several artillery systems both of light class (107 mm) and of super heavy class (over 300mm); and tactical missile systems, mainly Hwasong-5 (SS-1C Scud B) and Hwasong-6 (SS-1D Scud-C).[11] In return, Russia could supply North Korea with modern jet fighters, anti-ship missiles, diesel submarines, air defense systems, and even T-90 tanks. Russian expert and ex-deputy Sergey Markov holds the same opinion.[12] In his interview with "Bloknot" media, he states that Russia will receive "part of those colossal stocks of shells and cheap missiles accumulated in North Korea." In addition, the expert argued that Korean troops will participate in the war in Ukraine on the side of Russia: "Tens of thousands of volunteers from the North Korean army will take part in the SVO [Special Military Operation in Ukraine]. The North Korean army is about 1.5 million-strong. They need to acquire experience of real warfare." The political analyst also urged Russia to not comply with sanctions against North Korea. Vladimir Prokhvatilov, a senior researcher at the Academy of Military Sciences, holds a similar opinion, saying that volunteers from North Korea "are disciplined, courageous warriors."^[13]

Closed Analytical Telegram channel "MIG Rossii," with about 150,000  subscribers provides a different version. The channel argues[14] that North Korea plays a role as China's hub for covert agreements and, therefore, the Russian delegation held talks with the Chinese delegation on supplies of arms. However, no confirmation on such a meeting followed, with North Korean Central News Agency [KCNA] reporting that Russian and Chinese delegations were hosted on different days, being the mornings of July 27 and 28, respectively. In addition, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Sergei Shoigu left North Korea on July 27.[15] The Chinese delegation arrived in North Korea on July 26 and information[16] on the greeting of the delegation propagated by KCNA does not list among participators any members of Russian delegation, while noting North Korean functionaries from the party and the government.

North Korean drones and missiles that were shown to Shoigu during his visit gave weight to such assumptions.[17] However, no characteristics of the equipment were provided.

The photo shows Shoigu and Kim Jong Un at the arms exhibition among North Korea's drones resembling the U.S.-made Global Hawk and MQ-9. (Source: North Korean Central News Agency).

Other Russian experts and media were more skeptical about the prospects for the development of military or trade relations between the two countries. Andrey Frolov, expert of the Centre for Complex European and World Studies of the National Research HSE University, in his interview to analytical "Vedomosti" newspaper,[18] argued that the Shoigu visit was purely a commemorative event. The same opinion is shared by Ilya Dyachkov, Associate Professor of the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO University, "Shoigu's visit is primarily an anniversary event that will not lead to a breakthrough in Moscow-Pyongyang co-operation." The experts draw attention to a miniscule level of cooperation between the countries, due to the isolationist politics of North Korea, COVID-19 pandemics, and international sanctions. The fact that  the Russian Minister of Defense visited the country is attributed to the commemoration of the Korean War. Another newspaper's source from the Ministry of Defense, while noting North Korea's enormous stocks of ammunition and shells, also stated that Russia has no need for North Korean arms.

The analytical Telegram channel "Kontora Writes" argues[19] that arms supplies, if they happen, will be miniscule, since the Russian Army's issues with ammunition in Ukraine are mainly associated with poor logistics and military bureaucracy, "the entire range of ammunition and components is available to North Korea due to the help of the Russian side, thus the 're-export' of ammunition is, to put it mildly, impractical." The Telegram channel "Rybar," with more than a million subscribers argued that the Russian delegation visited North Korea largely because of the position of North Korean politicians on the war in Ukraine – North Korea recognized in 2022 the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, declared in the Donbass region in Ukraine. Though both channels allow the possibility of arms supplies, albeit small.

Experts of the analytical "Carnegie Politika" magazine are also skeptical[20] about the future of the two countries' cooperation. Expert Fedor Tartiskii recalls claims that in recent decades, Moscow's policy towards North Korea has been almost entirely centered on supporting Beijing's course. For instance, during the voting on sanctions against North Korea, Russia supported all the proposals supported by China and rejected those vetoed by China.

A reception of the Russian delegation. On the wall is a picture of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un shaking hands. North Korean official Lee Byung Chul present during the welcoming ceremony stated: "The armies and peoples of the two countries, the DPRK [i.e., North Korea] and Russia, oppose with ideas and weapons the robbery-like U.S. strategy of world domination, defend the sovereign rights and interests of state development, and through united efforts protect global peace and security, international justice, while firmly supporting each other." (Source: North Korean Central News Agency).

The expert argues, "Independent, non-China-related gestures in support of North Korea are hard to find in the Kremlin's policy. Economic ties between the two countries were very weak before [COVID], and with the onset of the pandemic, the [trade turnover] figures have fallen to almost zero, reaching only 0.006% of trade turnover of China-North Korea trade. In other words, Moscow is much closer to, for example, the U.S. and Japan than to China in terms of trade North Korean indicators. All of North Korea's attempts to diversify trade relations with China, which in 2021 accounted for 95.6% of North Korea's total foreign trade, at the expense of Russia have not been successful."

The experts claim that Russian rhetoric toward North Korea does not reflect the real stance of cooperation between the countries. They argue that the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un meeting during the summit in Vladivostok in 2019 did not lead to any changes in relations. However, despite conservative forecasts it seems that after the start of the war and international sanctions on Russia, both countries grew more interested in rapprochement.