Chinese Media Figure Wang Zaixi on Taiwan-China Tensions: If a War Breaks Out, Taiwan Stands No Chance; America Cannot Be Counted On

On December 11, 2021, the CCP media outlet, The Global Times, held its annual forum in Beijing. During the forum, Wang Zaixi, the former Deputy Director of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, said that Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by President Tsai Ing-wen, will not take any risks with China. He said: "They know the Chinese mainland's Anti-Secession Law is there. If they breach the mainland's red line over and over again, the mainland will be forced to take action… If a war breaks out, the island of Taiwan stands no chance, because the mainland has a very obvious advantage." He also said: "The U.S. cannot be counted on." Zhou Zhihuai, the Director of the Academic Board of the Taiwan and East Asia Research Center of Central China Normal University, said: "The DPP authority has no stomach, no power and no support to take risks." Taiwan-based scholar Chiu Yi said: "Politically, Taiwan is just a pawn to advance the interests of the U.S." The video of the forum was uploaded to the Global Times YouTube channel on December 11, 2021.

Wang Zaixi: "Normally, the DPP will not take those risks. Especially when Tsai Ing-wen is in office. I will give four reasons. First, they believe that holding onto current positions is more beneficial than taking risks. Being in power is the major pursuit of the DPP authorities. Declaring independence is actually a measure of defrauding votes. Second, they know the Chinese mainland's Anti-Secession Law is there. If they breach the mainland's red line over and over again, the mainland will be forced to take action. Third, if a war breaks out, the island of Taiwan stands no chance because the mainland has a very obvious advantage. Fourth, the U.S. cannot be counted on."

Zhou Zhihuai: "The DPP authority has no stomach, no power, and no support to take risks. The risks we talked about here are our bottom lines and red lines, which include the following parts. First, to declare independence. The DPP was in power for eight years from 2000 to 2008. Tsai Ing-wen has been in power for about five years. They never dare to declare independence. Second, to pursue de jure Taiwan independence. Third, to allow U.S. troops to be stationed on the island. Fourth, to join UN and to establish official ties with the U.S. or Japan, which is also very difficult. Fifth, to produce nuclear weapons. The mainland will not let the DPP authorities achieve any of these five points."

Jin Canrong: "The DPP will not declare independence publicly, but they will constantly use other tricks and risk breaching the mainland's red line. The first uncertainty is the U.S. The U.S. may miscalculate and push the issue too far. The second factor is election. If the DPP faces difficulty in the next election, will it create waves?"

Chiu Yi: "In the relationship between the Chinese mainland, Taiwan and the U.S., Taiwan has no initiative. It is reflected in three aspects. First, politically, Taiwan is just a pawn to advance the interests of the U.S. Second, economically its highly dependent on Chinese mainland. Third, Taiwan is facing severe financial difficulties. Seeking secessionism through military will definitely lead to financial bankruptcy."