Chinese Professor Jin Canrong: China Controlling The South China Sea Would Catastrophically Affect U.S. Global Strategy

Chinese professor Jin Canrong said in a video posted to his Kuaishou account on September 5, 2024, that China’s naval capabilities are historic and that if China were to gain effective control over the South China Sea, it would threaten key trade routes between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, having a significant impact on U.S. global strategy in a fashion that China would ultimately emerge victorious from. Jin Canrong is a prominent academic and expert on international relations, especially U.S.-China relations. He is a professor and Associate Dean at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing.

Jin Canrong: "On the South China Sea issue, I think we have some natural advantages, and our strength is developing rapidly. There's one thing we never expected, which is how incredibly powerful our ability to reclaim land from the sea is! To put it this way, in about one hour, we can do about 4,000 cubic meters of work."

Interviewer: "What does that mean?"

Canrong: "That's the annual output of Malaysia, Vietnam, or the Philippines – it's like we're just playing around."

Interviewer: "Let's applaud ourselves!"

Canrong: "This should be considered a miracle in human history – no one can match us in this regard. So, first of all, we need to have confidence in this matter. Of course, the U.S. reacting to this is inevitable. Because if we effectively control the South China Sea, it could disrupt the global strategic layout of the U.S. You know, 90% of the trade routes between the Indian and Pacific Oceans pass through here. This is a big deal. The U.S. controls the Western Pacific through bases like Guam, and the Indian Ocean through Diego Garcia. In between them sits our Nansha Islands [Spratly Islands], so from the U.S. perspective, our actions have a significant impact on their global strategy. Their response is inevitable. Personally, I think their reaction has already been delayed. We've already completed our construction, and now they are reacting and approaching. Of course, China doesn't want to blow this issue up too much because, at the moment, we still follow the principle of 'sovereignty is ours, set aside disputes, and pursue joint development' when it comes to island disputes. We don't want to provoke trouble, but now that we are stronger, we aren't afraid of it either. If you provoke us, you won’t be able to handle the consequences. If you reclaim one square meter, we might 'accidentally' reclaim a thousand square meters. We're competing in terms of speed. However, the surrounding countries have been causing trouble recently.

"In the past, when China was developing more slowly, they occupied many disputed islands. So they got something from us, and we told them to put aside the disputes, so they were cool with that. Now, they feel uneasy, saying 'You're developing too fast!' They think, 'If I don't cause trouble now, in the future, what was set aside may be taken over by you.' So, while we haven't fully risen yet and while the U.S. is coming back to make trouble, they are stirring up trouble. So, in recent years, we've begun to take action, such as island reclamation, and also making the legal aspects clearer, those are our responses to some of their behaviors. But at the same time, we have to note that China is pursuing a dual-track approach. While doing our construction, we are also working with ASEAN on the Code of Conduct [COC] for the South China Sea. This is a significant political shift. So overall, I believe that China is justified, advantageous, and measured in its approach to the South China Sea issue. We have a strong grip on the situation. We're powerful and not afraid of anyone, but we're also behaving in a reasonable manner. Personally, I'm confident that in the end, the winner will be China."